Author Topic: Masks  (Read 161002 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Masks
« Reply #540 on: October 08, 2020, 03:17:52 PM »
Quite a few posters have used this type of correlation as evidence of causation. I'm glad to see you don't take it at face value. I think there are other things that are more likely to be the cause, COVID+ people walking around like nothing happened is much more likely at fault. To assume lack of masks is always the culprit is very shallow.

It's not THE cause, but you can't argue that it's not a factor. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find someone with Covid walking around mask-less in a society where masks are the norm. Which is another huge benefit to masks.
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Offline Ergel

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Re: Masks
« Reply #541 on: October 08, 2020, 03:18:28 PM »
Somone posted a list of studies about the efficacy of masks. Can someone please link?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Masks
« Reply #542 on: October 08, 2020, 03:19:07 PM »
It's not THE cause, but you can't argue that it's not a possible factor. In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find someone with Covid walking around mask-less in a society where masks are the norm. Which is another huge benefit to masks.
FTFY
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Masks
« Reply #543 on: October 08, 2020, 03:20:46 PM »
FTFY

No, it's a factor, in one way or another, even if it's just as a visual reminder to take precautions. How much of a factor.. That you can debate.
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Re: Masks
« Reply #544 on: October 08, 2020, 03:26:04 PM »
"Because there is no proof, let's use the lack of proof as proof."
Correlation does not prove causation, but it does show that there is a good chance they are connected. Saying that they are not equal does not show the lack of causation. Enough the higher and more frequent the correlation the more likely they are to be connected.
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Online AsherO

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Re: Masks
« Reply #545 on: October 08, 2020, 04:09:05 PM »
In fact, you'd be hard pressed to find someone with Covid walking around mask-less in a society where masks are the norm. Which is another huge benefit to masks.

Masks are effective as a mitigating factor in the general population where COVID isn’t confirmed/below a certain prevalence. Someone positive should be isolated, mask or not.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Masks
« Reply #546 on: October 08, 2020, 05:37:55 PM »
Masks are effective as a mitigating factor in the general population where COVID isn’t confirmed/below a certain prevalence. Someone positive should be isolated, mask or not.

You won't get an argument from me on that. @avromie7's theory is that the reason for most of the spread is COVIDiots walking around without a mask while infected. We're obviously talking about people and places where isolation isn't happening. My point is that if the general population was all wearing masks, those COVIDiots would be, too, cutting down on the spread tremendously. Just another reason for mask mandates.
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Re: Masks
« Reply #547 on: October 08, 2020, 07:16:08 PM »
You won't get an argument from me on that. @avromie7's theory is that the reason for most of the spread is COVIDiots walking around without a mask while infected. We're obviously talking about people and places where isolation isn't happening. My point is that if the general population was all wearing masks, those COVIDiots would be, too, cutting down on the spread tremendously. Just another reason for mask mandates.

@avromie7’s goalpost-moving agenda has always been for his and everyone else’s life to go on as usual. Blaming it on COVID+ people not isolating is convenient because then it makes him seem like he’s on our side because we all agree that’s wrong. What he’s missing is that masks and SD are the guidelines for everyone, himself included. For anyone COVID+ they need strict isolation, at that point masks and SD are NOT sufficient anymore.
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Offline S209

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Re: Masks
« Reply #548 on: October 08, 2020, 08:03:20 PM »
"Because there is no proof, let's use the lack of proof as proof."
Statistically significant correlation is actually considered valid supporting evidence, although not final proof. It helps shift the burden of finding a valid third variable to the party denying the causation. Of course, finding statistically significant results to support a hypothesized finding is very different from picking one significant correlation out of a data table.

With enough instances of a correlation, it’s likely that many would consider it proof pending a clear and obvious reason for dismissal.

What is a demonstrable third variable that applies to all locations that adhere to to masks/SD vs. similar and close locations that don’t behave this way that would explain the discrepancy in case load, and what makes you believe that variable is as or more likely than masks/SD?

You can find some interesting points about this here
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Masks
« Reply #549 on: October 08, 2020, 08:28:40 PM »
@avromie7’s goalpost-moving agenda has always been for his and everyone else’s life to go on as usual. Blaming it on COVID+ people not isolating is convenient because then it makes him seem like he’s on our side because we all agree that’s wrong. What he’s missing is that masks and SD are the guidelines for everyone, himself included. For anyone COVID+ they need strict isolation, at that point masks and SD are NOT sufficient anymore.
Goalpost moving? What was the goalpost that moved?
The reason people not isolating wasn't discussed is because I was never aware of it happening.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Masks
« Reply #550 on: October 08, 2020, 08:31:32 PM »
Statistically significant correlation is actually considered valid supporting evidence, although not final proof. It helps shift the burden of finding a valid third variable to the party denying the causation. Of course, finding statistically significant results to support a hypothesized finding is very different from picking one significant correlation out of a data table.

With enough instances of a correlation, it’s likely that many would consider it proof pending a clear and obvious reason for dismissal.

What is a demonstrable third variable that applies to all locations that adhere to to masks/SD vs. similar and close locations that don’t behave this way that would explain the discrepancy in case load, and what makes you believe that variable is as or more likely than masks/SD?

You can find some interesting points about this here
COVID+ people not isolating.
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Offline S209

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Re: Masks
« Reply #551 on: October 08, 2020, 08:34:42 PM »
COVID+ people not isolating.
Is that more true in communities that don’t adhere to mask wearing? Is it universally true in all areas that don’t/didn’t require masks (such as Florida before they started)?

I agree with you that it is a potential third variable that could explain the discrepancy.
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Offline S209

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Re: Masks
« Reply #552 on: October 08, 2020, 08:38:15 PM »
Somone posted a list of studies about the efficacy of masks. Can someone please link?

It was @yuneeq in the “How to spot a Trump supporter thread” in JS. Not searching for the original post now but here is the link. There is already a lot more data at this point than there was even then.
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Re: Masks
« Reply #553 on: October 08, 2020, 08:40:11 PM »
Goalpost moving? What was the goalpost that moved?
The reason people not isolating wasn't discussed is because I was never aware of it happening.

You were called out for goalpost moving in another thread. You’re welcome to address the rest of my post. Of course as soon as you become aware of a datapoint/angle you try to shoehorn it into your preconceived agenda which has been prevalent in this forum.
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Re: Masks
« Reply #554 on: October 08, 2020, 08:42:48 PM »
Is that more true in communities that don’t adhere to mask wearing? Is it universally true in all areas that don’t/didn’t require masks (such as Florida before they started)?

I agree with you that it is a potential third variable that could explain the discrepancy.

I don't have data, but it would make sense that communities not taking it seriously in one way are also not taking it seriously in others ways. That would be another correlation between non mask wearing communities and COVIDiots. Very likely causation there too.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Masks
« Reply #555 on: October 08, 2020, 08:43:30 PM »
Is that more true in communities that don’t adhere to mask wearing? Is it universally true in all areas that don’t/didn’t require masks (such as Florida before they started)?

I agree with you that it is a potential third variable that could explain the discrepancy.
I don't have hard data, and it would be difficult to come by. I think it's safe to say, people who wear masks are definitely isolating when COVID+ and people who won't isolate are definitely not wearing masks. (Most of the people I know are in the middle, not wearing masks but isolating if COVID+)
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Masks
« Reply #556 on: October 08, 2020, 08:45:01 PM »
You were called out for goalpost moving in another thread. You’re welcome to address the rest of my post. Of course as soon as you become aware of a datapoint/angle you try to shoehorn it into your preconceived agenda which has been prevalent in this forum.
Link? We would all benefit from an honest discussion instead of character assasination.
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Re: Masks
« Reply #557 on: October 08, 2020, 08:57:28 PM »
Link? We would all benefit from an honest discussion instead of character assasination.

So just to be sure, are we moving the goalposts?

We both agree an honest discussion will be beneficial, but we apparently have different standards for honesty.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Masks
« Reply #558 on: October 08, 2020, 09:00:09 PM »
We both agree an honest discussion will be beneficial, but we apparently have different standards for honesty.
You clearly haven't been following, I answered that post weeks ago. I don't see any honest discussion in your part.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Masks
« Reply #559 on: October 08, 2020, 09:20:11 PM »
Somone posted a list of studies about the efficacy of masks. Can someone please link?
@Ergel I don't know if this is the list you wanted, but you might find something here.
https://www.masktoprotect.org/science