Author Topic: Can we finally say we are over the peak?  (Read 5234 times)

Offline Proisrael

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Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« on: April 07, 2020, 05:03:03 AM »
With rates now falling multiple days in a row in Europe, and the US, and having already fallen in China and other fare East countries, can we say we are over the peak?

BH the stories of those getting better are far outnumbering those becoming sick. Already in Israel things will be going back to normal after pesach for certain industries.

Offline Yammer

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #1 on: April 07, 2020, 05:48:43 AM »
With rates now falling multiple days in a row in Europe, and the US, and having already fallen in China and other fare East countries, can we say we are over the peak?

BH the stories of those getting better are far outnumbering those becoming sick. Already in Israel things will be going back to normal after pesach for certain industries.
Can't talk for the rest of the world, but in the US my question is the following:

Will it start spreading rapidly in other states?

What happens once the social distancing measures etc are ended? With over 1/3 of all the cases in NYS, does that mean that NYers are immune while others are not?

Offline Proisrael

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #2 on: April 07, 2020, 06:12:56 AM »
Can't talk for the rest of the world, but in the US my question is the following:

Will it start spreading rapidly in other states?

What happens once the social distancing measures etc are ended? With over 1/3 of all the cases in NYS, does that mean that NYers are immune while others are not?

If it hasnt yet why suspect that it will now?

Offline hvaces42

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #3 on: April 07, 2020, 07:27:48 AM »
Doubtful that it peaked in NY. Theyre saying at least another week to 10 days. Maybe, hopefully, Bezras Hashem, it peaked in our communities, because of the early Purim spread.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #4 on: April 07, 2020, 07:38:36 AM »
Will it start spreading rapidly in other states?

With so many states on lockdown it only makes sense that we need to limit non-essential travel for x time to prevent whatever lingering contagion there might be from spreading beyond a limited area and potentially shutting down the country a second time. No?

My understanding is that East Asian countries that seemed to have gotten their situation under control (HK, Singapore, S. Korea etc) are having a second wave now because of infected people coming into their country.

Wouldn’t you expect a similar thing to happen in the US if people can travel unfettered?
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Offline Drago

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #5 on: April 07, 2020, 07:39:01 AM »
Already in Israel things will be going back to normal after pesach for certain industries.
Where are you seeing that? All i saw was Bibi's hope that things can slowly go back to normal.

Offline Proisrael

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #6 on: April 07, 2020, 08:06:27 AM »
Where are you seeing that? All i saw was Bibi's hope that things can slowly go back to normal.

Special education will be going back to school after pesach (they have them broken down to small classes so its safer).

Offline neveryou

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #7 on: April 07, 2020, 08:10:33 AM »
Where are you seeing that? All i saw was Bibi's hope that things can slowly go back to normal.
The actual data is showing that the curve is flattening, the prediction models which were way off and are still off are not showing the curve

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #8 on: April 07, 2020, 08:14:56 AM »
With rates now falling multiple days in a row in Europe, and the US, and having already fallen in China and other fare East countries, can we say we are over the peak?

BH the stories of those getting better are far outnumbering those becoming sick. Already in Israel things will be going back to normal after pesach for certain industries.
Where are you getting your numbers from for the US?
What rates have dropped multiple days?
We have more recovered than becoming sick?
I hope all these are true but not seeing it.
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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #9 on: April 07, 2020, 10:20:14 AM »
Where are you getting your numbers from for the US?
What rates have dropped multiple days?
We have more recovered than becoming sick?
I hope all these are true but not seeing it.
What I'm seeing is the rate of increase slowing.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #10 on: April 07, 2020, 10:59:30 AM »
What I'm seeing is the rate of increase slowing.
We had the most deaths yesterday. Which numbers?
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Offline yossig

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #11 on: April 07, 2020, 11:09:38 AM »
We had the most deaths yesterday. Which numbers?
Tri state numbers are slowing

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #12 on: April 07, 2020, 11:13:48 AM »
We had the most deaths yesterday. Which numbers?
As Dr. Fauci has mentioned, deaths are a lagging indicator.
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Offline Dan

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #13 on: April 07, 2020, 11:21:27 AM »
So what's the game plan? Only let those with antibodies out?

Everyone else stays inside until there's a vaccine?

Otherwise, how do you avoid a second peak? Or do you just accept another peak and lockdown again with its associated deaths?
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Offline Yoel F

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #14 on: April 07, 2020, 11:34:35 AM »
New York jumped again, 730 deaths last 24 hours.

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #15 on: April 07, 2020, 11:35:34 AM »
So what's the game plan? Only let those with antibodies out?

Everyone else stays inside until there's a vaccine?

Otherwise, how do you avoid a second peak? Or do you just accept another peak and lockdown again with its associated deaths?
I think they are watching SK.
To answer your questions, yes.  :)
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Offline chevron

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #16 on: April 07, 2020, 11:36:36 AM »
So what's the game plan? Only let those with antibodies out?

Everyone else stays inside until there's a vaccine?

Otherwise, how do you avoid a second peak? Or do you just accept another peak and lockdown again with its associated deaths?

I was talking to a very good friend of mine who is a doctor GI for 35 years.


He mentioned Gastroenteritis. Doctors shake patients hands all the time and don't get this.  They don't touch their face, they wear gloves where relevant and wash hands

The main thing will have to be good hygiene and social distancing.

Will things go back to normal? I think so, I'd love to see better air quality in buildings etc..

Reading on how the virus spreads it's easy to see how NY is so bad.. one sneeze in a subway car or elevator etc

I think that also doctors are going to get better

A cardiologist told me that for example they are aware of this issue but the cause isn't clear.

https://khn.org/news/mysterious-heart-damage-not-just-lung-troubles-befalling-covid-19-patients/

So I think God willing we will improve from spreading the disease and how we handle and treat patients.



Offline chevron

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #17 on: April 07, 2020, 11:40:16 AM »
We can blame the administration but I have good faith in our doctors.

We have a common enemy in this disease, I think there will be unity in going after it.

I think a lot of retired and doctors in lockdown will join in and contribute.

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #18 on: April 07, 2020, 12:09:25 PM »
So what's the game plan? Only let those with antibodies out?

Everyone else stays inside until there's a vaccine?

Otherwise, how do you avoid a second peak? Or do you just accept another peak and lockdown again with its associated deaths?
In NY, there is decent percentage of the population who already got it (official number is 0.7% of NYS, but it's probably many times that). The more people around with antibodies the slower it spreads, if we still keep social distancing and hand hygiene for the foreseeable future I think it will keep the caseload low even if people go to shul, work, and stores.
« Last Edit: April 07, 2020, 12:19:12 PM by avromie7 »
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline KSMH

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #19 on: April 07, 2020, 12:12:23 PM »
In NY, there is decent percentage of the population who already got it (official number is 0.7%, but it's probably many times that). The more people around with antibodies the slower it spreads, if we still keep social distancing and hand hygiene for the foreseeable future I think it will keep the caseload low even if people go to shul, work, and stores.
I actually agree if antibodies work for a prolonged period of time.
In the J community most I know have had it or have it currently.
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