Author Topic: Can we finally say we are over the peak?  (Read 5316 times)

Offline chevron

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #20 on: April 07, 2020, 12:49:13 PM »
Right but in general, I use these situations to look at how we can improve overall.

Better hygenie, better air on airplanes would be great, imagine that ?

I've been more focused on getting my d from the sun, vitamin c and zinc

Survival of the fittest is cruel but it's truth

And of course we're going to need to take a really hard look at the hospital supply chain etc

Offline Yammer

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #21 on: April 07, 2020, 01:15:18 PM »
With so many states on lockdown it only makes sense that we need to limit non-essential travel for x time to prevent whatever lingering contagion there might be from spreading beyond a limited area and potentially shutting down the country a second time. No?

My understanding is that East Asian countries that seemed to have gotten their situation under control (HK, Singapore, S. Korea etc) are having a second wave now because of infected people coming into their country.

Wouldn’t you expect a similar thing to happen in the US if people can travel unfettered?
So what's the game plan? Only let those with antibodies out?

Everyone else stays inside until there's a vaccine?

Otherwise, how do you avoid a second peak? Or do you just accept another peak and lockdown again with its associated deaths?
Exactly my question... Otherwise we will have the same situation..

Offline aradisc

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #22 on: April 07, 2020, 01:20:14 PM »
New York jumped again, 730 deaths last 24 hours.

University of Washington model has peak resource use in New York tomorrow and peak deaths in two days. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

Offline Lurker

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #23 on: April 07, 2020, 01:54:29 PM »
University of Washington model has peak resource use in New York tomorrow and peak deaths in two days. https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/new-york

Ask a Floridian what they think of models. We see a million and a half of them every hurricane season. God does what God wants to do.
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline ari3

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #24 on: April 07, 2020, 01:57:33 PM »
So what's the game plan? Only let those with antibodies out?

Everyone else stays inside until there's a vaccine?

Otherwise, how do you avoid a second peak? Or do you just accept another peak and lockdown again with its associated deaths?
You start slowly, you do the lockdown in reverse. You slowly open things up with limited amounts of people. There is a decent percentage of people that have already had the virus, many have been exposed and have not contracted it so they may be less vulnerable.

Europe is a bit ahead of us and they will start easing before us so I guess we can watch them and see what works and what doesn't. (unfortunately you can't rely on china because you can't trust anything coming out of china).

Offline junion

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #25 on: April 07, 2020, 05:44:09 PM »
even if we have 3% or 4% immunity. Is it really enough to stop a second wave?
The frum community has probabaly had a much higher to rate of infection and therefor immunity. But probably isn't better off than the rest of the population due to many gatherings shul, simchas etc. I could see the rabanim/doctors still being on top of social distancing even once the rest of the population slowly returns to normal, as we are so much together. maybe smaller minyanim etc...

Offline Dan

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #26 on: April 07, 2020, 05:48:21 PM »
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #27 on: April 07, 2020, 05:53:32 PM »
even if we have 3% or 4% immunity. Is it really enough to stop a second wave?
The frum community has probabaly had a much higher to rate of infection and therefor immunity. But probably isn't better off than the rest of the population due to many gatherings shul, simchas etc. I could see the rabanim/doctors still being on top of social distancing even once the rest of the population slowly returns to normal, as we are so much together. maybe smaller minyanim etc...
It's probably much higher than 4% in the general public and especially in the frum community, the official rate for NYS is 0.7%, in the next couple of weeks we can assume we'll be at 1%. The estimates I've seen is that the true number is 10-20x. Keeping smaller minyanim etc. will probably be enough to keep the caseload low.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline KSMH

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #28 on: April 07, 2020, 09:12:22 PM »
I would say it's in the 60-70% rate.
Whomever Jewish I speak to in tri state area was either exposed many times over or had it.
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline junion

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #29 on: April 07, 2020, 09:35:17 PM »
I would say it's in the 60-70% rate.
Whomever Jewish I speak to in tri state area was either exposed many times over or had it.
I cant believe that thats true. If 60-70% have it and there is a 1-2%death rate then that would mean that 1% of the Ny area frum population will have died. And b"h it's not the case. (The idea of writing this sickens me)

Offline AsherO

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #30 on: April 07, 2020, 09:38:03 PM »
I cant believe that thats true. If 60-70% have it and there is a 1-2%death rate then that would mean that 1% of the Ny area frum population will have died. And b"h it's not the case. (The idea of writing this sickens me)

1% of diagnosed people (tested positive) could really mean much less than 1%.
DDF FFB (Forum From Birth)

Offline KSMH

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #31 on: April 07, 2020, 09:49:10 PM »
I cant believe that thats true. If 60-70% have it and there is a 1-2%death rate then that would mean that 1% of the Ny area frum population will have died. And b"h it's not the case. (The idea of writing this sickens me)
Facts dont make a difference if it sickens you maybe the death rate is actually lower.

As an example, I had one freind that had 110 of his contacts lose thier smell and taste in 1 week. Many of my relatives had/have it, none tested and I can go on and on.

Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline aygart

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #32 on: April 07, 2020, 09:52:28 PM »
I would say it's in the 60-70% rate.
Whomever Jewish I speak to in tri state area was either exposed many times over or had it.
Yet wherever they tested had a positive rate much much lower than that
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline AsherO

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #33 on: April 07, 2020, 10:18:43 PM »
Yet wherever they tested had a positive rate much much lower than that

High false negative rate?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #34 on: April 07, 2020, 10:37:48 PM »
High false negative rate?
very likely as well as some people seemingly unable to get it. I have no other answer to how my FIL tested positive but my MIL tested negative.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline junion

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #35 on: April 07, 2020, 10:57:20 PM »
It could be a lot of people tested negative because they didnt have it at the time (or if its incubating I dont know if you would necessarily test positive) and then got it later

Offline S209

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #36 on: April 08, 2020, 02:22:56 AM »
All of this is speculation and for sure in the Frum community we won’t just accept a hypothetical and just risk many lives on a possibility. Flattening the curve won’t bring back or necessarily prevent the deaths of people like Mrs. Hass, the Novominsker, R Bressler, my Bubby, R Littman, R Walkin, Meltzer, etc.

I get that for the country overall the economy needs to weigh in as a factor and to some extent, for us too, but we Yidden place a greater premium on lives, especially those of our elders. I, for one, won’t risk my parents’ lives because the caseload will be lower. I don’t care how many or what percent. I want my parents alive at all costs and will gladly stay inside for months and lose all my income if that’s what it takes.
Facts dont make a difference if it sickens you maybe the death rate is actually lower.

As an example, I had one freind that had 110 of his contacts lose thier smell and taste in 1 week. Many of my relatives had/have it, none tested and I can go on and on.


This is ridiculous. Certainly many people who weren’t tested got it, and there are probably many false negatives as well, but not everyone who had a symptom had it and unless you are including a massive amount of asympotamatic patients in your theory (which you don’t seem to be) this doesn’t hold water. Of my parents, spouse, children, siblings and their spouses and kids, only one has shown any symptoms and they were very mild. Anecdotal to be sure but certainly doesn’t exactly match up with a 70% symptomatic infection rate, we all live in Lakewood and have broad circles.
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #37 on: April 08, 2020, 09:59:21 AM »


I get that for the country overall the economy needs to weigh in as a factor and to some extent, for us too, but we Yidden place a greater premium on lives, especially those of our elders. I, for one, won’t risk my parents’ lives because the caseload will be lower. I don’t care how many or what percent. I want my parents alive at all costs and will gladly stay inside for months and lose all my income if that’s what it takes.This is ridiculous.

So you think we should all stay indoors for the next year at least until we have a vaccine?

Offline S209

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #38 on: April 08, 2020, 01:55:20 PM »
So you think we should all stay indoors for the next year at least until we have a vaccine?
If many people will die otherwise, of course.

If your parent’s life was in immediate mortal danger and all you needed to do to keep them safe was stay home for the next year, would you hesitate?

Of course, your question was a straw man, so I’m just answering the question in the same spirit, not what I think the true complexities and real long term plan are.
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Offline yesitsme

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Re: Can we finally say we are over the peak?
« Reply #39 on: May 14, 2020, 05:02:22 PM »
yes we are past
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