Author Topic: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?  (Read 868 times)

Online ExGingi

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #15 on: August 03, 2020, 12:41:24 PM »
Interesting opinion coming from you. So, how does one bet on this? If I was a betting person I would bet against you. I would bet that by the end of 1h 2020 there will certainly be an FDA approved and distributed (100m+ doses in distribution centers/warehouses) vaccine in the US.

Forget about betting just pick one cutoff date and put the poll up there. Only two options, by cutoff date, or after cutoff date.

I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #16 on: August 03, 2020, 12:45:49 PM »
Forget about betting just pick one cutoff date and put the poll up there. Only two options, by cutoff date, or after cutoff date.

I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.
I would add a 3rd option, around cutoff date.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline AsherO

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #17 on: August 03, 2020, 12:54:27 PM »
I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.

100m doses in the US might be available long before the above, and would still be a major game changer.
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Online ExGingi

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #18 on: August 03, 2020, 01:56:36 PM »
100m doses in the US might be available long before the above, and would still be a major game changer.

I don't see a major difference between 100MM doses and the scenario I described. Many who have had the virus won't rush to get a vaccine. Many won't rush to vaccinate children (initially).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #19 on: August 05, 2020, 12:41:52 AM »
Aren't they already mass producing the 2 main candidates, so they're ready for distribution as soon as they're FDA cleared? Doesn't phase 3 of those trials end in about 3 months? No guarantee either of them pan out, but if they do, the vaccine should be ready November/December.

https://www.ft.com/content/a544c0de-7274-4831-b164-6059cd68d15c

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?
« Reply #20 on: August 07, 2020, 05:27:40 PM »
Fauci doesn’t think a vaccine will put an end to it.
“He also reiterated that the coronavirus may never be eliminated, but world leaders can work together to bring the virus down to "low levels."

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html