Realistic vaccine date- end of 2021?

[ExGingi]

Interesting opinion coming from you. So, how does one bet on this? If I was a betting person I would bet against you. I would bet that by the end of 1h 2020 there will certainly be an FDA approved and distributed (100m+ doses in distribution centers/warehouses) vaccine in the US.

Forget about betting just pick one cutoff date and put the poll up there. Only two options, by cutoff date, or after cutoff date.

I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.

[avromie7]

Forget about betting just pick one cutoff date and put the poll up there. Only two options, by cutoff date, or after cutoff date.

I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.

I would add a 3rd option, around cutoff date.

[AsherO]

I'll even redefine widely available for you: available for anyone in the US indicating they would like to get vaccinated to get it within 2 weeks of their request.

100m doses in the US might be available long before the above, and would still be a major game changer.

[ExGingi]

100m doses in the US might be available long before the above, and would still be a major game changer.

I don't see a major difference between 100MM doses and the scenario I described. Many who have had the virus won't rush to get a vaccine. Many won't rush to vaccinate children (initially).

[Yard sale]

Aren't they already mass producing the 2 main candidates, so they're ready for distribution as soon as they're FDA cleared? Doesn't phase 3 of those trials end in about 3 months? No guarantee either of them pan out, but if they do, the vaccine should be ready November/December.

https://www.ft.com/content/a544c0de-7274-4831-b164-6059cd68d15c

[Yard sale]

Fauci doesn’t think a vaccine will put an end to it.
“He also reiterated that the coronavirus may never be eliminated, but world leaders can work together to bring the virus down to "low levels."

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/08/07/coronavirus-vaccine-dr-fauci-says-chances-of-it-being-highly-effective-is-not-great.html