Author Topic: Impact of Covid-19 on Tri-State Orthodox Jewish Community  (Read 945 times)

Online S209

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Impact of Covid-19 on Tri-State Orthodox Jewish Community
« on: April 12, 2020, 05:14:32 AM »
Iím trying to work on the numbers to see if I can unearth some coherent statistics on just how deadly itís been in the US, using the Orthodox community as a sample. We are in a unique position to calculate approximate number of deaths in our community by percentage of total population.

If anyone has pertinent information with concrete death/hospitalization numbers (Hatzolah, news sources, etc.) and sizing of the Tri State Jewish communities, please post it here. If you want to work with me, PM me.

Thanks!
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Online S209

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Re: Impact of Covid-19 on Tri-State Orthodox Jewish Community
« Reply #1 on: April 12, 2020, 05:16:54 AM »
Iím trying to work on the numbers to see if I can unearth some coherent statistics on just how deadly itís been in the US, using the Orthodox community as a sample. We are in a unique position to calculate approximate number of deaths in our community by percentage of total population.

If anyone has pertinent information with concrete death/hospitalization numbers (Hatzolah, news sources, etc.) and sizing of the Tri State Jewish communities, please post it here. If you want to work with me, PM me.

Thanks!
I think that unfortunately, even if you assume that every single member of the community has been infected (obviously a very far-fetched assumption) the death rate is still significantly higher than the flu already.
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Impact of Covid-19 on Tri-State Orthodox Jewish Community
« Reply #2 on: April 12, 2020, 07:50:01 AM »
1. Youíll be hard pressed to gather accurate statistics on the size of our community, the number of affected people, the number of hospitalizations, and RĒL the numbers of those who have succumbed to this awful disease.
2. Even if you got accurate numbers, our community isnít necessarily representative of the broader society, both in our general demographics and in our lifestyle differences that would affect transmission, our R number might very well be higher than the general population of the US.

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Re: Impact of Covid-19 on Tri-State Orthodox Jewish Community
« Reply #3 on: April 12, 2020, 10:30:41 AM »
I believe that there are many factors which will render our communities as outliers in this pandemic. The first, and biggest, factor is our community life. A BP family with 8 kids can realistically interact with 2 yeshivos, a girls high school, 2 elementary schools, and a playgroup all within 24 hours, in addition to up to 3 shuls and a large simcha. Assuming very modest average numbers of 100 kids per school, 30 per shul, and 150 per simcha, that family has interacted with almost 750 people (giving overlap) within their average 24 hour period. I think you'd be hard pressed to find that reach in the outside world. Multiply that by "x" amount of families, add in Purim, and the government not taking it seriously enough until after a large percentage of our population was infected, and I think you may need to find a different Chol HaMoed project. 

Another data point that will skew the Jewish community's numbers vs the rest of the world is the elderly population. The interaction we have with our elderly in community and home settings, IMO is far greater than the average population. The amount of deaths we've seen from our greatest generation (75+) is unfortunately a huge percentage of our overall Covid-19 fatalities.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 10:40:26 AM by Lurker »
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Impact of Covid-19 on Tri-State Orthodox Jewish Community
« Reply #4 on: April 12, 2020, 10:33:46 AM »
Minyanim and Purim are enough to make our community outliers.

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Re: Impact of Covid-19 on Tri-State Orthodox Jewish Community
« Reply #5 on: April 12, 2020, 04:16:03 PM »
As I said in another post. The laws of probability are so much greater with so much overlapping.

Purim and megillah, shalach Manos and seuda was definitely a big thing.

Weddings and close dancing..