The science of COVID-19

[AsherO]

https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

Let's see what the results of the anti body tests in Lakewood are.

One thing is certain , not all of the 1100 people tested positive.

4-6% is still way too low for herd immunity.

[S209]

https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

Let's see what the results of the anti body tests in Lakewood are.

One thing is certain , not all of the 1100 people tested positive.

Would be fantastic news if the fatality rate is that low, but the Lakewood antibody rates can’t be good news no matter what. Keep in mind the only people who donated were those with symptoms who are pretty sure they had it. 100% would be great because the presence of antibodies in everyone with symptoms indicates a certain amount of immunity, but the further from 100% the worse, because that indicates either

a) less immunity, or
b) less people than we think had it, raising the presumed fatality rate

[aygart]

Why does the fatality rate make a difference of it is lower because it was more contagious than we thought?

[yzj]

https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

Let's see what the results of the anti body tests in Lakewood are.

One thing is certain , not all of the 1100 people tested positive.

Polio is close to 95% asymptomatic yet it still wreaked havoc in its time. Let’s keep things in perspective.

[S209]

Why does the fatality rate make a difference of it is lower because it was more contagious than we thought?

It would be good news if we find out that we’ve all had it, we are all immune, and any deaths that were going to occur have already occurred. It’s highly unlikely that any of those are true, let alone all, but that would be a potential benefit.

[aygart]

It would be good news if we find out that we’ve all had it, we are all immune, and any deaths that were going to occur have already occurred. It’s highly unlikely that any of those are true, let alone all, but that would be a potential benefit.

So many ifs

[S209]

One thing is for certain: The death rate cannot be less than that of the flu, because NY State has already had .1% of residents die of coronavirus in the last 4 weeks. That’s without going into the true infection rate, how many are hospitalized, efficacy of treatments and immunity, etc. Forget about the 500 a day still dying over there. Just a cold, hard, not debatable statistic.

That’s right. 1 in 1000 residents of NY State have died of coronavirus in the last 4 weeks.

Stay home. Save lives.

[aygart]

One thing is for certain: The death rate cannot be less than that of the flu, because NY State has already had .1% of residents die of coronavirus in the last 4 weeks. That’s without going into the true infection rate, how many are hospitalized, efficacy of treatments and immunity, etc. Forget about the 500 a day still dying over there. Just a cold, hard, not debatable statistic.

That’s right. 1 in 1000 residents of NY State have died of coronavirus in the last 4 weeks.

Stay home. Save lives.

Or it is more contagious than the flu.

[S209]

Or it is more contagious than the flu.

But the death rate for the flu is .1, so even assuming a 100% infection rate, it is at least as deadly.

If it is contagious enough to reach 100%, and stays at .1, that will kill 350,000 Americans..

[shapsam]

But the death rate for the flu is .1, so even assuming a 100% infection rate, it is at least as deadly.

.01% of NYC is more than 80,000...

[S209]

.01% of NYC is more than 80,000...

There are 80 million residents?

NY State has approximately 19M residents, and around 19K have died from corona so far.

[shapsam]

There are 80 million residents?

NY State has approximately 19M residents, and around 19K have died from corona so far.

Oh, messed up the calculation, I stand corrected

[S209]

Oh, messed up the calculation, I stand corrected

[Moshe123]

Everyone that I know in Monsey, save a few people are presumed to have had it.

[good sam]

Everyone that I know in Monsey, save a few people are presumed to have had it.

What is the presumption based on?

Neither I nor anyone in my family has had any symptoms. Same for many in my community.

[Ergel]

https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

Let's see what the results of the anti body tests in Lakewood are.

One thing is certain , not all of the 1100 people tested positive.

FWIU, the rate should be 90%

[ckmk47]

African Americans have a high death rate, as noted in the NY Times article. 
A local,  hospital based physician noted that this applies to Hispanics, too.  Although it may be the drinkers of their group who are going quickly and younger.

[CountValentine]

I just can't seem to find a rhyme or reason to all of this in my mind. Which is why I started this thread asking people to post scientific articles (or at least news articles pointing to scientific studies) about the virus, treatments, etc.

Way to early for answers.

[yos9694]

African Americans have a high death rate, as noted in the NY Times article. 
A local,  hospital based physician noted that this applies to Hispanics, too.  Although it may be the drinkers of their group who are going quickly and younger.

They also have higher percentages of DNR living wills

[CountValentine]

They also have higher percentages of DNR living wills

Source?