Author Topic: The science of COVID-19  (Read 49300 times)

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #20 on: April 17, 2020, 11:16:04 AM »
So you could have saved 150,000 lives by telling everyone to just calm down...
Weren't we told to just stay calm?  :)
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #21 on: April 17, 2020, 11:17:41 AM »
Weren't we told to just stay calm?  :)

I’m calmest when I visit sweet seniors, no mask, and no obsessing about hand washing.

/s
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #22 on: April 17, 2020, 11:59:33 AM »
There is very little information right now. Research is only just beginning.

Could be genetic predisposition, but could also be the extent of the exposure. https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238819-does-a-high-viral-load-or-infectious-dose-make-covid-19-worse/

Though inconclusive, it would make sense that a smaller exposure can be fought off easier by the immune system.
"Rumours circulating on social media suggest that hospital workers or their household members exposed to a higher “viral load” become sicker than the general population."

I was offering a possible explanation for hospital workers getting "sicker".
So you could have saved 150,000 lives by telling everyone to just calm down...
Not really. Telling everyone to calm down won't translate into calmness, when the country is shut and people's lives are totally upended people cant just be calm. Remember; people losing jobs, being stuck at home with many kids, locked in a small apartment and overall panic created by media wont subside anxiety with the words calm down.

Even if no one would have anxiety many would still die but I think many of those would still be alive.  I dont know how much that "many" is and no one will ever know. I do think there will be debate about this in the future.

Just take one example. Someone in NYC has a mild case of Covid and  feels he can't breathe and we are assuming its anxiety related, he calls EMS they dont particularly care if it anxiety because he is reporting

"Other symptoms that can occur during this response and as a result of anxiety include:

faster breathing

chest tightness

breathlessness or a feeling of suffocation

feeling like you have a lump in your throat

muscle tension

heart palpitations (feels like a stronger, faster heartbeat)

feeling faint, dizzy, or unsteady

nausea or stomach discomfort

restlessness, irritability, or feeling on edge"


EMS transports the patient to the Hospital, once there he dosnt receive proper food or no food at all, no family and looking around he sees sick people of covid in a crowded hospital full of chaos. This person is loosing sleep and not eating properly which can cause his virus to get worse and eventually lead to death. Most of these deaths are old people which many times can't fend and take care of themselves.

In the areas where Jews live, Hatzalah has recognized this and is handling patients accordingly. They are also avoiding transporting patients at all costs. Even when they think a patient needs to  go to the hospital there is some instances where they actually dont need to be transported [ I have a first hand story, hope to write about it some time later].

Did all die because of anxiety and panic? no.
Could have many lives been saved if not for the panic? yes.
How many? I dont know, and no one will ever know.
What's the solution? I dont know a 100% solution. But there are some tips that can help.

1.Older people should not listen/watch  the news, period [maybe even younger people]. 
2. If people get the virus make sure they are in a optimistic environment, it helps. Simcha and hope can cure many illnesses.
3. Try getting home cure, if needed, such as an oxygen concentrator,  stats reader, home X-ray, ETC.
4. Dont go to the hospital only if concentrator is close to being maxed out and in your in calming position.
Consult your DR' for the above. My take on hospitalisation is based on successfull care for a 90+ YO covid patient.
Always praying for delayed baggage.

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #23 on: April 17, 2020, 12:04:36 PM »
"Rumours circulating on social media suggest that hospital workers or their household members exposed to a higher “viral load” become sicker than the general population."

I was offering a possible explanation for hospital workers getting "sicker". Not really. Telling everyone to calm down won't translate into calmness, when the country is shut and people's lives are totally upended people cant just be calm. Remember; people losing jobs, being stuck at home with many kids, locked in a small apartment and overall panic created by media wont subside anxiety with the words calm down.

Don't forget about retirees and those close to it seeing their nest egg cut dramatically.
Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #24 on: April 17, 2020, 02:28:11 PM »
WSJ had an article today or yesterday. African Americans have a higher mortality rate.  They're often found to have lower vitamin D levels. 
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #25 on: April 17, 2020, 05:53:01 PM »
Not like this. The country is shut. I think most news articles even recognize there was never such a situation in history, and that creates anxiety at unheard of levels.

Speak to your local DR. and ask. I've heard from local EMS that they receive many calls form people thinking they cant breathe due to covid.

I had a relative with covid and he has told me he started feeling a shortness of breath and realized all he has to do is calm down.
so technically when a pt is sedated they should breath easier and shouldn't have to be on a vent for more then a few minutes or better yet let them pass out from the shortness of breath and their body would start breathing on its own again
It's not only Hatzolah recognizing it
911 has been keeping many people home

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #26 on: April 17, 2020, 06:13:31 PM »


so technically when a pt is sedated they should breath easier and shouldn't have to be on a vent for more then a few minutes or better yet let them pass out from the shortness of breath and their body would start breathing on its own again
It's not only Hatzolah recognizing it
911 has been keeping many people home




Did all die because of anxiety and panic? no.


My point was, it's possible many did die because of the chain reaction, once on a vent with lung pneumonia it's a bit harder for the body to fight it.

Happy to hear 911 is doing so as well, are they providing access to oxygen concentrates?

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #27 on: April 17, 2020, 06:21:34 PM »
We need to study and analyze entire populations. We need enough random testing of the population at large to understand the reach of this. Without that, we are just guessing. I saw a report on Arutz Sheva today that leaked documents from the US indicate that the death rate is .15% making it no more deadly than the common flu. I don't know how they jive that with the situation in NYC and dead people piling up.
In Frum Lakewood nearly .1% percent of the population has already died, so even assuming a 60%-80% infection rate, which is obviously ridiculous, those numbers are probably horribly off. Approximately 50 people have already died in a township with a Frum population of around 75,000 with many on ventilators in very critical condition. This is with social distancing that puts most of the country to shame.

Extrapolate these numbers to the whole US and we’re literally talking many hundreds of thousands of deaths, WITHOUT health care systems overwhelmed. Imagine without social distancing.

Oh by the way.. Lakewood is the youngest township in NJ, with a large percentage of the deaths people 65 and younger, so I’d hate to see how an older town would fare.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #28 on: April 17, 2020, 06:26:52 PM »
In Frum Lakewood nearly .1% percent of the population has already died, so even assuming a 60%-80% infection rate, which is obviously ridiculous, those numbers are probably horribly off. Approximately 50 people have already died in a township with a Frum population of around 75,000 with many on ventilators in very critical condition. This is with social distancing that puts most of the country to shame.

Extrapolate these numbers to the whole US and we’re literally talking many hundreds of thousands of deaths, WITHOUT health care systems overwhelmed. Imagine without social distancing.

Oh by the way.. Lakewood is the youngest township in NJ, with a large percentage of the deaths people 65 and younger, so I’d hate to see how an older town would fare.
+ Hatzolah members [heard directly] in LKWD estimate 80-90% of frum population had or was extremely exposed to covid.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #29 on: April 17, 2020, 06:27:28 PM »
+ Hatzolah members [heard directly] in LKWD estimate 80-90% of frum population had or was extremely exposed to covid.
Exposed ≠ Had
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #30 on: April 17, 2020, 06:28:16 PM »
Correct, but keep in mind in recent history there was never a panic created for a sickness at the level.

Just going to throw out the notion that there's political capital to be harvested by extending and eggagerating the situation. Not that it isn't serious - just that there are many who gain by overstating the body count and stoking people's fears. Apply salt liberally.

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #31 on: April 17, 2020, 06:29:17 PM »
Exposed ≠ Had
Meaning husband had it and wife didn't, they happen to sleep in the same bedroom but for some reason didn't contact it. Or a parent and child.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #32 on: April 17, 2020, 06:30:40 PM »
Meaning husband had it and wife didn't, they happen to sleep in the same bedroom but for some reason didn't contact it.
So there's this thing called Nida for up to 2 weeks per month...
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #33 on: April 17, 2020, 06:34:36 PM »
Meaning husband had it and wife didn't, they happen to sleep in the same bedroom but for some reason didn't contact it. Or a parent and child.
What’s your point? Many can catch it from others, but won’t always. They can still catch it. Not every person exposed gets it, not by a long shot. But every person exposed CAN get it.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #34 on: April 17, 2020, 06:35:58 PM »
+ Hatzolah members [heard directly] in LKWD estimate 80-90% of frum population had or was extremely exposed to covid.
Moronic. Nobody in my immediate family has had it that we’re aware of. That’s 35 people in Lakewood.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #35 on: April 17, 2020, 06:38:40 PM »


So there's this thing called Nida for up to 2 weeks per month...



I'm aware, but even if so breathing the same air in a room for 8 or so hours a night, eating food touched/prepped by one another, basically no social distancing.

Maybe those are just asymptomatic.

My point was, Hatzalah members [not the org, but members between themselves] estimate that 80%-90%  have or have been extremely exposed.
You can interpret this how ever you want I was just adding this info to.


In Frum Lakewood nearly .1% percent of the population has already died, so even assuming a 60%-80% infection rate, which is obviously ridiculous, those numbers are probably horribly off. Approximately 50 people have already died in a township with a Frum population of around 75,000 with many on ventilators in very critical condition. This is with social distancing that puts most of the country to shame.

Extrapolate these numbers to the whole US and we’re literally talking many hundreds of thousands of deaths, WITHOUT health care systems overwhelmed. Imagine without social distancing.

Oh by the way.. Lakewood is the youngest township in NJ, with a large percentage of the deaths people 65 and younger, so I’d hate to see how an older town would fare.

And was explaining where you can potentially see this go in the rest of the US without timely implementation of social distancing.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #36 on: April 17, 2020, 06:41:58 PM »
Moronic. Nobody in my immediate family has had it that we’re aware of. That’s 35 people in Lakewood.
Happy to hear. The many I know who live there have had it or a family member living in the same  household have.

There are some circles where no one had it and there are some where everyone had it.

I was repeating what I've heard from an active member responding to Covid 19 calls in LKWD.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #37 on: April 17, 2020, 06:43:17 PM »
Happy to hear. The many I know who live there have had it or a family member living in the same  household have.

There are some circles where no one had it and there are some where everyone had it.

I was repeating what I've heard from an active member responding to Covid 19 calls in LKWD.
.... therefore, the 80-90% statistic is mind-numbingly misinformed. Hatzola members aren’t responding to the homes that don’t have it.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #38 on: April 17, 2020, 06:48:11 PM »
In Frum Lakewood nearly .1% percent of the population has already died, so even assuming a 60%-80% infection rate, which is obviously ridiculous, those numbers are probably horribly off. Approximately 50 people have already died in a township with a Frum population of around 75,000 with many on ventilators in very critical condition. This is with social distancing that puts most of the country to shame.

Extrapolate these numbers to the whole US and we’re literally talking many hundreds of thousands of deaths, WITHOUT health care systems overwhelmed. Imagine without social distancing.

Oh by the way.. Lakewood is the youngest township in NJ, with a large percentage of the deaths people 65 and younger, so I’d hate to see how an older town would fare.
Something is of with the number 50 because I personally knew close to 10 and can't believe that I know 20 percent of them.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #39 on: April 18, 2020, 04:56:33 PM »
"Rumours circulating on social media suggest that hospital workers or their household members exposed to a higher “viral load” become sicker than the general population."

I was offering a possible explanation for hospital workers getting "sicker". Not really. Telling everyone to calm down won't translate into calmness, when the country is shut and people's lives are totally upended people cant just be calm. Remember; people losing jobs, being stuck at home with many kids, locked in a small apartment and overall panic created by media wont subside anxiety with the words calm down.
....

1.Older people should not listen/watch  the news, period [maybe even younger people]. 
2. If people get the virus make sure they are in a optimistic environment, it helps. Simcha and hope can cure many illnesses.
3. Try getting home cure, if needed, such as an oxygen concentrator,  stats reader, home X-ray, ETC.
4. Dont go to the hospital only if concentrator is close to being maxed out and in your in calming position.
Consult your DR' for the above. My take on hospitalisation is based on successfull care for a 90+ YO covid patient.

Famous story from the Baal Shem Tov ( also heard it quoted b'shem someone else).. sure everyone has heard if not in summary:
מלך המות met the Baal Shem Tov at the start of Plague, BST asked him, "How many people do you plan on killing"?
מ״ה answered - 5,000. In the end 25,000 people died.
BST came back to the  מ״ה asked what happend I thought only 5,000 were supposed to die?
MH answered him- 5,000 did people did die from the plague, the rest were from panic.