Author Topic: The science of COVID-19  (Read 49311 times)

Offline yelped

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2015
  • Posts: 10481
  • Total likes: 3834
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 43
    • View Profile
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #40 on: April 18, 2020, 10:07:44 PM »
Famous story from the Baal Shem Tov ( also heard it quoted b'shem someone else).. sure everyone has heard if not in summary:
מלך המות met the Baal Shem Tov at the start of Plague, BST asked him, "How many people do you plan on killing"?
מ״ה answered - 5,000. In the end 25,000 people died.
BST came back to the  מ״ה asked what happend I thought only 5,000 were supposed to die?
MH answered him- 5,000 did people did die from the plague, the rest were from panic.
Partially misquoted. Look in the Ben Ish Chai. Anyways people have to learn how to apply things properly.

Offline ari3

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2016
  • Posts: 1353
  • Total likes: 532
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: new jersey
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #41 on: April 18, 2020, 11:24:06 PM »
In Frum Lakewood nearly .1% percent of the population has already died, so even assuming a 60%-80% infection rate, which is obviously ridiculous, those numbers are probably horribly off. Approximately 50 people have already died in a township with a Frum population of around 75,000 with many on ventilators in very critical condition. This is with social distancing that puts most of the country to shame.

Most of the people who got sick did so BEFORE the social distancing started.


Oh by the way.. Lakewood is the youngest township in NJ, with a large percentage of the deaths people 65 and younger, so I’d hate to see how an older town would fare.

While Lakewood may have the youngest population in NJ they also have a SIGNIFICANT senior population (including senior housing developments with thousands of units in total).

Offline ari3

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2016
  • Posts: 1353
  • Total likes: 532
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
    • View Profile
  • Location: new jersey
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #42 on: April 18, 2020, 11:32:53 PM »
.... therefore, the 80-90% statistic is mind-numbingly misinformed. Hatzola members aren’t responding to the homes that don’t have it.

The quote was+ Hatzolah members [heard directly] in LKWD estimate 80-90% of frum population had or was extremely exposed to covid.

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #43 on: April 18, 2020, 11:54:43 PM »
The quote was+ Hatzolah members [heard directly] in LKWD estimate 80-90% of frum population had or was extremely exposed to covid.

I’m not sure Hatzalah members have the expertise to make this assertion...
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #44 on: April 18, 2020, 11:58:08 PM »
I’m not sure Hatzalah members have the expertise to make this assertion...
Who would have more expertise on this matter?
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #45 on: April 18, 2020, 11:58:35 PM »
The quote was+ Hatzolah members [heard directly] in LKWD estimate 80-90% of frum population had or was extremely exposed to covid.
+1
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30535
  • Total likes: 7832
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #46 on: April 18, 2020, 11:59:37 PM »
Who would have more expertise on this matter?

Infectious disease specialists, who (on a national scale) are saying there isn’t enough data to ascertain the level of infection (and thus presumed immunity) in the broader population.
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #47 on: April 19, 2020, 12:01:59 AM »
Infectious disease specialists, who (on a national scale) are saying there isn’t enough data to ascertain the level of infection (and thus presumed immunity) in the broader population.
Weird, they had a hard time predicting anything with Covid-19, I should trust them now?

Lack of data is exactly the reason to listen to people that are responding to calls locally and actually know what's going on.
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #48 on: April 19, 2020, 12:37:55 AM »
Weird, they had a hard time predicting anything with Covid-19, I should trust them now?

Lack of data is exactly the reason to listen to people that are responding to calls locally and actually know what's going on.
Are you suggesting they have been in contact with 70,000+ patients?

Hatzalah are paramedics, not scientists. They are good at telling us facts on the ground as it pertains to actually sick people, not at extrapolating statistics from a small sample size.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #49 on: April 19, 2020, 12:41:41 AM »
Weird, they had a hard time predicting anything with Covid-19, I should trust them now?

Lack of data is exactly the reason to listen to people that are responding to calls locally and actually know what's going on.
No, you shouldn’t trust them at all, the unpredictability of the illness is exactly why everyone needs to be extra careful. If this were predictable, likes most diseases which we’ve seen before, we could just follow guidelines and be safe, and maybe not lose dozens of people we cherish to stupidity and recklessness. I’m going to try to post Dr. Liebowitz’s letter from Lakewood Scoop in the coronavirus and your shull thread.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline KSMH

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jul 2018
  • Posts: 2773
  • Total likes: 496
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 15
    • View Profile
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #50 on: April 19, 2020, 12:42:03 AM »
Are you suggesting they have been in contact with 70,000+ patients?
No, I am suggesting
 They have received hundreds of calls if not 1K+ -.....  from different households that were covid related and have been in touch with most DR's in LKWD that would translate into information from thousands of households. Thousands of households would give them a pretty clear picture to estimate their 80-90% #.
Always praying for delayed baggage.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #51 on: April 19, 2020, 12:46:10 AM »
No, I am suggesting
 They have received hundreds of calls if not 1K+ -.....  from different households that were covid related and have been in touch with most DR's in LKWD that would translate into information from thousands of households. Thousands of households would give them a pretty clear picture to estimate their 80-90% #.
No it wouldn’t, it would only give them the information of the actual people who have shown symptoms. Where would they be getting information on asymptomatic people, which is what the extrapolation is clearly based on?
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17404
  • Total likes: 14340
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #52 on: April 19, 2020, 12:52:28 AM »
No it wouldn’t, it would only give them the information of the actual people who have shown symptoms. Where would they be getting information on asymptomatic people, which is what the extrapolation is clearly based on?
Sounds eerily similar to Dr. Z.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Dan

  • Administrator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 50K Diamond Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 67601
  • Total likes: 16913
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 16442
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: CLE
  • Programs: UA GS, AA EXP, DL Dirt, Hyatt Glob, Fairmont Lifetime Plat, DD Diamond, Blocked By @NeriaKraus
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #53 on: April 19, 2020, 12:55:24 AM »
So, Wuhan has 3% with antibodies, but Lakewood has 80-90% according to one Hatzola EMT.
Cool story.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-starts-testing-to-determine-level-of-immunity-from-coronavirus-11587039175
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #54 on: April 19, 2020, 12:59:18 AM »
So, Wuhan has 3% with antibodies, but Lakewood has 80-90% according to one Hatzola EMT.
Cool story.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-starts-testing-to-determine-level-of-immunity-from-coronavirus-11587039175
Then again, you’re back to trusting China ;)
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #55 on: April 19, 2020, 01:01:44 AM »
As an aside, in NJ it is notoriously difficult to get a test, you must have been exposed, show symptoms, be vulnerable, AND get a prescription.

Still, only 45% of tests have come back positive..

https://covid19.nj.gov/#live-updates

Not sure if everyone reporting seasonal allergies counts as “had it”
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17404
  • Total likes: 14340
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #56 on: April 19, 2020, 01:04:55 AM »
So, Wuhan has 3% with antibodies, but Lakewood has 80-90% according to one Hatzola EMT.
Cool story.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-starts-testing-to-determine-level-of-immunity-from-coronavirus-11587039175
Right and they also had 82,000 cases and 3000 deaths.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Yard sale

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jun 2018
  • Posts: 900
  • Total likes: 471
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #57 on: April 19, 2020, 01:16:35 AM »
So, Wuhan has 3% with antibodies, but Lakewood has 80-90% according to one Hatzola EMT.
Cool story.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-starts-testing-to-determine-level-of-immunity-from-coronavirus-11587039175

Anecdotally I haven’t spoken to a single person under the age of 60 in Lakewood who hasn’t experienced symptoms in their household at some point since purim. And I’ve spoken to a lot of people. Several seniors I know who were good about isolating did not. Maybe Wuhan didn’t have the overwhelming exposure that purim (thousands attended BMG), tens of thousands of school kids and daycare, and 3 minyanim/ learning sedorum etc.  provided the Lakewood community.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 01:29:00 AM by Yard sale »

Offline yelped

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2015
  • Posts: 10481
  • Total likes: 3834
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 43
    • View Profile
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #58 on: April 19, 2020, 01:47:58 AM »
Quite frankly the last couple of pages leave me flabbergasted. Where did you guys learn how to use critical thinking? Why in the world would you take a risk on your families lives because of some statement from someone who by saying that statement made it clear that he has no clue how statistics work? 

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #59 on: April 19, 2020, 01:50:31 AM »
Anecdotally I haven’t spoken to a single person under the age of 60 in Lakewood who hasn’t experienced symptoms in their household at some point since purim. And I’ve spoken to a lot of people. Several seniors I know who were good about isolating did not. Maybe Wuhan didn’t have the overwhelming exposure that purim (thousands attended BMG), tens of thousands of school kids and daycare, and 3 minyanim/ learning sedorum etc.  provided the Lakewood community.
Anecdotally I am from Lakewood and neither I nor anyone in my household have experienced any symptoms of any sort since Purim. That extends to my siblings, siblings in law, parents, and all of their children.
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.