Author Topic: The science of COVID-19  (Read 17540 times)

Offline S209

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #60 on: April 19, 2020, 01:53:37 AM »
Quite frankly the last couple of pages leave me flabbergasted. Where did you guys learn how to use critical thinking? Why in the world would you take a risk on your families lives because of some statement from someone who by saying that statement made it clear that he has no clue how statistics work?
To be fair, they haven’t specified that they would take action based on this information, but truthfully I know many who would/have.

Hatzala members spreading this type of speculation sounds outright dangerous and frankly loony. The only way I can think of being melamed zechus is he was trying to explain to someone that they have to treat everyone else as a carrier, and therefore to be extra careful.
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Offline Zevi16

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #61 on: April 19, 2020, 02:29:44 AM »
Anecdotally I am from Lakewood and neither I nor anyone in my household have experienced any symptoms of any sort since Purim. That extends to my siblings, siblings in law, parents, and all of their children.
But you any have very well been exposed to it.
I know someone that ate by you that got it.

Offline Yard sale

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #62 on: April 19, 2020, 02:30:50 AM »
Anecdotally I am from Lakewood and neither I nor anyone in my household have experienced any symptoms of any sort since Purim. That extends to my siblings, siblings in law, parents, and all of their children.

Strict social distancing?

Offline KSMH

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #63 on: April 19, 2020, 02:44:50 AM »
So, Wuhan has 3% with antibodies, but Lakewood has 80-90% according to one Hatzola EMT.
Cool story.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/wuhan-starts-testing-to-determine-level-of-immunity-from-coronavirus-11587039175
Anecdotally I haven’t spoken to a single person under the age of 60 in Lakewood who hasn’t experienced symptoms in their household at some point since purim. And I’ve spoken to a lot of people. Several seniors I know who were good about isolating did not. Maybe Wuhan didn’t have the overwhelming exposure that purim (thousands attended BMG), tens of thousands of school kids and daycare, and 3 minyanim/ learning sedorum etc.  provided the Lakewood community.
+1 Most people I have spoken to in LKWD have experienced symptoms not typical of the flu.

Who trusts china for even one second. Most western  countries with Chinese tests reported them to be mostly faulty.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/04/16/world/europe/coronavirus-antibody-test-uk.amp.html

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.bloomberg.com/amp/news/articles/2020-04-01/faulty-virus-tests-cloud-china-s-european-outreach-over-covid-19

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nationalreview.com/news/china-supplied-faulty-coronavirus-test-kits-to-spain-czech-republic/amp/

Look at the actual facts and decide on your own.


Facts:
1] Lakewood NJ Covid 19 cases according to OCHD =  1278
2] Almost impossible to get tested [at least till recently]
3]  Most people showing symptoms did not get tested,  by a huge factor.
5] Kids dont usually show symptoms.
6] Young ppl have almost a 0% chance of getting tested.


According to the 2010 census
"In the township, the population age was spread out with 41.8% under the age of 18, 10.3% from 18 to 24, 24.6% from 25 to 44, 11.1% from 45 to 64, and 12.2% who were 65 years of age or older."

41.8% under 18 with mostly no symptoms.
10.3% under 24, most likely not tested
24.6% under 44 most likely not tested.
11.1% from 45 to 64 with many of this age group not getting tested. 

75+ % of people cannot get tested.

Most people  were exposed and showed symptoms around purim time when testing was even more scarce.

A big % of people possibly dont show symptoms at all.

Schools and shulls were open after purim for a few days.

Hatzalah speaking to Dr"s whom are reporting fielding 100's- 1000's of calls with ppl showing symptoms.

I know of 100's [literally] in lkwd showing/showed symptoms and  of those, 4 were tested and they were positive.

Does it make sense for H to say 80-90% have had covid or have been extremely exposes? I think so.
« Last Edit: April 19, 2020, 02:48:32 AM by KSMH »
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Offline Shmobaum

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #64 on: April 19, 2020, 03:18:54 AM »
I agree with you. I said so when everyone thought Dr. Zelenkos numbers were extremely out of whack and I said it’s very close to that percentage given our way of life. Everyone I know had symptoms as well. No testing is what’s gonna make ppl argue with this opinion since they’ll say they have the “official” numbers ...

Offline Yard sale

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #65 on: April 19, 2020, 03:20:09 AM »
Looks like Lakewood Hatzoloh got over 1000 calls over the last month. Given the predominantly young population of Lakewood what percentage of covid patients are severe enough to call Hatzoloh? Low to mid single digits?

80% plus infected seems quite reasonable to me.

Offline chevron

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #66 on: April 19, 2020, 04:17:24 AM »
Ultimately the stupidity of many is be their downfall.

Statistics are for analyzing data not every shmuck making himself and expert.

When everybody argues that "we all got it, we are all immune" it's shfichas damim and absolute stupidity.

The numbers are irrelevant Keep washing your hands Keep practicing social distancing.

You need to assume that everybody had it or has it and then everybody is at risk to get it. So you need to both be careful of catching it from somebody or giving it to somebody

Offline chevron

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #67 on: April 19, 2020, 04:18:31 AM »
Bh in my community almost nobody has gotten it. I credit our very heavy handed policy.

Offline Euclid

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #68 on: April 19, 2020, 04:28:17 AM »
Hate to rain on a speculative, conjecture parade (with the ironic title of "The Science of COVID-19"):


The claim that 80-90% of Lakewood has been exposed, and thereby implying that the immunity of Lakewood is of herd-immunity level, has not been borne out yet in the Bikur Cholim antibodies blood test. Many people who claim to have had the symptoms are testing negative for the antibodies in the BC test (source: doctor in Lakewood).


The extrapolation from the spike in hatzolah calls to the amount of actual C-19 patients is not accurate. Many of the calls that hatzolah has had have been for repeat patients (e.g. for O2 checks, followups, and finally transport). (source: first hand knowledge of the nature of the calls)


There has been a big spike of seniors moving to Lakewood since 2010 and that decade old census is inaccurate. (All those 55+ communities which opened over the past decade.)


The flu and other viruses were still going around and flu-like symptoms could have reasonably been the flu. (source: wife had flu-B Purim time, and doc told her that it was going around Lkwd.)


There is still no hard evidence that all C-19+ patients actually develop the antibodies, and if they do develop them that they can't be reinfected. Many conflicting studies released, with additional studies ongoing currently.

Offline AsherO

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #69 on: April 19, 2020, 07:22:48 AM »
Weird, they had a hard time predicting anything with Covid-19, I should trust them now?

Trust whomever you want, but don’t try to use their statements to convince me without any objective proof. What you cited thus far is not objective proof.

Also “extremely exposed” means nothing scientifically, it doesn’t tell us what percentage of those people actually got infected.
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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #70 on: April 19, 2020, 07:57:17 AM »
There is still no hard evidence that all C-19+ patients actually develop the antibodies, and if they do develop them that they can't be reinfected. Many conflicting studies released, with additional studies ongoing currently.
I don't think there is any specific study that people can't get reinfected. It's a presumption.
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Offline good sam

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #71 on: April 19, 2020, 09:07:51 AM »
To be fair, they haven’t specified that they would take action based on this information, but truthfully I know many who would/have.

Hatzala members spreading this type of speculation sounds outright dangerous and frankly loony. The only way I can think of being melamed zechus is he was trying to explain to someone that they have to treat everyone else as a carrier, and therefore to be extra careful.
Exactly. I hear many who are using this assumption lkula when it's meant to be used only lchumra.
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline S209

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #72 on: April 19, 2020, 09:21:20 AM »
But you any have very well been exposed to it.
I know someone that ate by you that got it.
Sure, all of us have interacted with people at some point who have gotten it at some point. That doesn’t mean exposed to it, and certainly doesn’t mean had it.
Hate to rain on a speculative, conjecture parade (with the ironic title of "The Science of COVID-19"):


The claim that 80-90% of Lakewood has been exposed, and thereby implying that the immunity of Lakewood is of herd-immunity level, has not been borne out yet in the Bikur Cholim antibodies blood test. Many people who claim to have had the symptoms are testing negative for the antibodies in the BC test (source: doctor in Lakewood).


The extrapolation from the spike in hatzolah calls to the amount of actual C-19 patients is not accurate. Many of the calls that hatzolah has had have been for repeat patients (e.g. for O2 checks, followups, and finally transport). (source: first hand knowledge of the nature of the calls)


There has been a big spike of seniors moving to Lakewood since 2010 and that decade old census is inaccurate. (All those 55+ communities which opened over the past decade.)


The flu and other viruses were still going around and flu-like symptoms could have reasonably been the flu. (source: wife had flu-B Purim time, and doc told her that it was going around Lkwd.)


There is still no hard evidence that all C-19+ patients actually develop the antibodies, and if they do develop them that they can't be reinfected. Many conflicting studies released, with additional studies ongoing currently.

Thank you for your informative post. We all hope and pray that the worst is behind us but the complete ignorance and disregard of actual science is leading many to completely disregard health directives and true peril
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Offline S209

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #73 on: April 19, 2020, 09:23:09 AM »
Strict social distancing?
Yup. As I hope everyone has been practicing? Or are you going to tell me that because of minyanim etc. the infection rate is higher? Ironic
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Offline Euclid

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Re: The science of COVID-19
« Reply #74 on: April 19, 2020, 09:41:41 AM »
I don't think there is any specific study that people can't get reinfected. It's a presumption.
(Yeah, was referring to studies of the development of antibodies. Don't think it's ethical to do a reinfection study.)