The science of COVID-19

[Euclid]

I meant strict social distancing practiced by your extended family etc since you seem to be an anomaly  among the posters from Lakewood; you seem to be the only one who doesn’t know of widespread incidence of covid symptoms among their non senior family and social circles in Lakewood.

My extended family has the same. Only 3/9 (married) children's family have had symptoms.

[S209]

My extended family has the same. Only 3/9 (married) children's family have had symptoms.

Whole family or one member in each?

[Euclid]

Whole family or one member in each?

One family had both spouses with symptoms. Others only one.

[S209]

One family had both spouses with symptoms. Others only one.

So what are the total statistics? 4/18+?

[S209]

I meant strict social distancing practiced by your extended family etc since you seem to be an anomaly  among the posters from Lakewood; you seem to be the only one who doesn’t know of widespread incidence of covid symptoms among their non senior family and social circles in Lakewood.

Of course we practiced strict social distancing, including no minyanim outside of a brother who participated in a well enforced porch minyan when it was allowed by his Rav.

I had a lot to do with it being taken seriously. My father closed his school early as well.

[Euclid]

So what are the total statistics? 4/18+?

Not including children (of whom none had symptoms), correct.

[S209]

Not including children (of whom none had symptoms), correct.

Not exactly 80-90% numbers

[Euclid]

Not exactly 80-90% numbers

Yep.

[Yard sale]

Not exactly 80-90% numbers

Do we live in the same town?
7 of a family members co-workers had it. Didn't ask about spouses. Every neighbor on 3 blocks we spoke to save one (from a distance) close to 2 dozen- had someone in the family with loss of smell/ symptoms. Rov had it (by “it” I mean symptoms, not a positive test which was impossible for most to obtain) gabbai had it. Many multiple shul members had it (haven’t spoken with most individualy but it is something that the rov and many from the shul are saying- take that for what it is worth).  5 people I called erev last days for a chessed available for them had had it in the family. Brother in law and sis- in law had it. One chavrusa had symptoms. Another chavrusah told me he and all of his neighbors had symptoms. Third chavrusa hadn’t had it as of 3 days before yom tov. Have not reached out to him since. 7 askanim a colleague of mine dealt with had it. Roshei yeshiva, mashgichim, rabeim that I or family members have/ had shaychus too had it. Some fairly severe keeping quiet about it (in home nurse etc) That’s just off the top of my head. Those who mentioned not having had it yet in the under 60 bracket? Very few. A poll would probably be better than all this anecdotal stuff but my experience is very different than yours.

[zh cohen]

All of the symptoms can be from 100 different things (or imagined...).

[Yard sale]

All of the symptoms can be from 100 different things (or imagined...).

Absolutely along with the fact that many symptomatic people test negative (although there are many false negatives further clouding the picture). All it tells me is that anecdotally it is quite possible that most of Lakewood has had it....

[zh cohen]

Absolutely along with the fact that many symptomatic people test negative (although there are many false negatives further clouding the picture). All it tells me is that anecdotally it is quite possible that most of Lakewood has had it....

I'm missing something. How does the first half of your post fit with the second?

[ckmk47]

Is there a study suggesting reinfection is possible? FWIU it was believed that reinfection is possible based on the assumption that there is a no sign of the virus left
 7-14 days after symptoms and people tested positive weeks later. Now we know it's very possible to test positive after many weeks without symptoms.

New reports from reliable sources seem to indicate some sort of reinfection is possible.
But perhaps it's not reinfection - perhaps its a re-emergence of the existing coronavirus.  But reactivated because of new exposure.
But the symptoms of all have been MILD.  No reports of pneumonia, etc.

[cholent]

I'm in Lakewood and we only started strict social distancing a week after Purim. BH nobody in the family had symptoms. I have two married siblings in Lakewood, one both adults had symptoms, the other nobody in the family did. Also with social distancing starting the week after Purim. I think 80-90% sounds inflated.

[4yourinfo]

Hate to rain on a speculative, conjecture parade (with the ironic title of "The Science of COVID-19"):


The claim that 80-90% of Lakewood has been exposed, and thereby implying that the immunity of Lakewood is of herd-immunity level, has not been borne out yet in the Bikur Cholim antibodies blood test. Many people who claim to have had the symptoms are testing negative for the antibodies in the BC test (source: doctor in Lakewood).

That can be because their body did not develop any antibodies yet, can take 15 days - or even worse some people aren't developing antibodies at all according to some studies  - which doesn't contradict the 80/90% but it does question the herd immunity...

[ExGingi]

That can be because their body did not develop any antibodies yet, can take 15 days - or even worse some people aren't developing antibodies at all according to some studies  - which doesn't contradict the 80/90% but it does question the herd immunity...

These kinds of things were exactly why I started this thread (though the title should have probably been better phrased as a question, which is what it was intended to be).

I had certain symptoms and landed in the ER but was never tested for COVID-19 because I didn't have any respiratory issues. I have fully recovered, gave some blood to the Mt Sinai plasma program to be tested for antibodies, but never heard back from them.

I see people who are presumably fully exposed (within same household with no distancing) and don't get any symptoms (and even test negative).

I see older people get very mild symptoms, and young people ending up in the hospital on a ventilator.

Different people get totally different symptoms.

I just can't seem to find a rhyme or reason to all of this in my mind. Which is why I started this thread asking people to post scientific articles (or at least news articles pointing to scientific studies) about the virus, treatments, etc.

[S209]

A key fact most posts here are overlooking is that all signs point to the possibility that not all “having it”s are created equal. The size of the viral load at infection seems to matter greatly, and it also seems likely that an existing infection can get exacerbated by more exposure.

See healthcare worker statistics, especially among younger doctors.

ETA: @ExGingi this would seem to be a potential answer to your question

[ari3]

A key fact most posts here are overlooking is that all signs point to the possibility that not all “having it”s are created equal. The size of the viral load at infection seems to matter greatly, and it also seems likely that an existing infection can get exacerbated by more exposure.

See healthcare worker statistics, especially among younger doctors.

ETA: @ExGingi this would seem to be a potential answer to your question

Where can you find "healthcare worker statistics, especially among younger doctors"

[yos9694]

Maybe Wuhan didn’t have the overwhelming exposure that purim (thousands attended BMG), tens of thousands of school kids and daycare, and 3 minyanim/ learning sedorum etc.  provided the Lakewood community.

But they did. The virus started to peak in Wuhan during the chinese new year celebration, which certainly beats out lakewood's purim in any competition for mass public gatherings.

[KSMH]

https://reason.com/2020/04/20/l-a-county-antibody-tests-suggest-the-fatality-rate-for-covid-19-is-much-lower-than-people-feared/

Let's see what the results of the anti body tests in Lakewood are.

One thing is certain , not all of the 1100 people tested positive.