Author Topic: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?  (Read 4823 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #105 on: April 21, 2021, 12:22:35 PM »

I thought suburban markets are hot and urban is flat?

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #106 on: April 25, 2021, 05:16:55 AM »
I thought suburban markets are hot and urban is flat?
Toronto was overheated before 2020. This isn't Covid related.
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Offline aygart

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #107 on: April 25, 2021, 10:13:34 AM »
Toronto was overheated before 2020. This isn't Covid related.
The tweet is not Toronto specific at all.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #108 on: April 25, 2021, 10:58:46 AM »
The tweet is not Toronto specific at all.

The research from the tweet is, and unless this "bubble" started 20 years ago and is still going strong, it's some really bad research.
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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #109 on: April 25, 2021, 11:25:04 AM »
https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/stumbling-to-scarcity#plastic

After reading this, as well as seeing the following tweets:


Reminded me of a time several years ago when there was a lot of talk of inflation. While the Fed was saying no core inflation, the memes were running wild about no inflation if one doesn't need to pay rent, doesn't need to eat, etc.

However, I am quite convinced that while we are seeing transient inflation pressures currently, as mentioned in the Mauldin article, these things are transitory by nature (anyone remembers the saying: "the solution for $100/bbl oil is $100/bbl oil"?) as human nature hasn't changed, and things will self adjust in due time (not such a long horizon). However strong DEFLATIONARY forces that exist, don't have a way of self-resolving so quickly, as these are generational forces (huge debt overhang, slowing population growth or outright shrinking and aging population, automation, etc.)

And to counter things in the short term, you actually have this:


I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline AsherO

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #110 on: April 25, 2021, 12:13:35 PM »
And to counter things in the short term, you actually have this:


Kindly explain this chart for financial simpletons like me. Thanks!

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #111 on: April 25, 2021, 12:59:26 PM »
Kindly explain this chart for financial simpletons like me. Thanks!

Increased money supply is being countered by falling velocity of money.

In very simplistic terms, if the money supply was $100 and it moved through the economy (by virtue of various transactions) 12 times a year, and then it was increased to $200, but economic activity slowed by 50% and that $200 is only moving through the economy 6 times per year, nothing really changed as far as GDP growth or inflation.

John Mauldin had a good write-up a few years ago. (Oh, how time flies, it was more than a decade ago!)

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-implications-of-velocity-mwo031210

« Last Edit: April 25, 2021, 01:03:05 PM by ExGingi »
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Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #112 on: April 25, 2021, 01:45:19 PM »
Increased money supply is being countered by falling velocity of money.

In very simplistic terms, if the money supply was $100 and it moved through the economy (by virtue of various transactions) 12 times a year, and then it was increased to $200, but economic activity slowed by 50% and that $200 is only moving through the economy 6 times per year, nothing really changed as far as GDP growth or inflation.

John Mauldin had a good write-up a few years ago. (Oh, how time flies, it was more than a decade ago!)

https://www.mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoughts/the-implications-of-velocity-mwo031210
Following that logic, once economic activity picks up...

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #113 on: April 25, 2021, 04:31:05 PM »
Following that logic, once economic activity picks up...

Nice thinking, except that the deflationary forces are still out there on a much larger level.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline Kobe Bryant

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #114 on: May 02, 2021, 09:07:14 AM »

Offline AussieMan

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #115 on: May 02, 2021, 12:48:09 PM »

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is Hyperinflation On The Horizon?
« Reply #116 on: May 02, 2021, 06:59:37 PM »
Inflation is when labor and food cost more. Money cheapening relative to some assets isn't inflation until it cheapens relative to all assets.

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