Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 15049 times)

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 20K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 22154
  • Total likes: 682
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 74
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #15 on: April 22, 2020, 09:51:43 AM »
But the road to herd immunity is paved with dead people.

It’s a sacrifice they’re apparently willing to make. Sacrifice a (relative) few so the rest of us can go on with our lives. Frum DDFers have made this argument, so it doesn’t surprise me one bit coming from a progressive country like Sweden.
My barber needs your support, he’s a real sweetheart.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/save-our-barber-shop

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 2007
  • Total likes: 1251
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #16 on: April 22, 2020, 09:52:41 AM »
Herd immunity from what, exactly?

This is why it's not time to buy a gun.... So frustrating. Can someone explain to me what they're getting immunity from?
Please wear a mask.

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 20K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 22154
  • Total likes: 682
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 74
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #17 on: April 22, 2020, 09:56:24 AM »
This is why it's not time to buy a gun.... So frustrating. Can someone explain to me what they're getting immunity from?

Are you being facetious/sarcastic?
My barber needs your support, he’s a real sweetheart.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/save-our-barber-shop

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 2007
  • Total likes: 1251
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #18 on: April 22, 2020, 09:59:01 AM »
Are you being facetious/sarcastic?

Nope, dead serious. You all keep throwing around the term "herd immunity" regarding Covid-19. I want to know what you all think herd immunity is.
Please wear a mask.

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 12015
  • Total likes: 369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #19 on: April 22, 2020, 10:00:23 AM »
It’s a sacrifice they’re apparently willing to make. Sacrifice a (relative) few so the rest of us can go on with our lives. Frum DDFers have made this argument, so it doesn’t surprise me one bit coming from a progressive country like Sweden.
I'm not sure that's the argument. Isn't the argument that there is a certain threshold for shutting down society - I think everyone agrees to that. If we lockdown we'll have less deaths from flu and car accidents, right? If the death rate of this virus was .001%, no one would be advocating for a shutdown, right? (It would mean 3300 deaths in the US). If Sweden ends up not upending society and 3000 deaths, did they make the wrong decision? I'm not sure it's a question of having a higher value of life. Lockdowns have impacts on people's wellbeing as well. What is the shortened life expectancy if you gain 20 pounds? What about the emotional toll this takes on families. If we have an extra 500 gitin because of this, does that not mean something? What about if 50000 people lose their homes because they lost their livelihood? What about if we have an extra 5000 suicides? What if we close down schools for multiple years? I don't think it's as simple as whether or not you value life.
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Offline Ergel

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jun 2010
  • Posts: 12015
  • Total likes: 369
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 3
    • View Profile
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #20 on: April 22, 2020, 10:01:29 AM »
Nope, dead serious. You all keep throwing around the term "herd immunity" regarding Covid-19. I want to know what you all think herd immunity is.
Herd immunity is when a certain number of people develop immunity to a virus (either through vaccination or by being previously infected) and as a result the virus will not spread even if there are some infected people circulating in society
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

Online PlatinumGuy

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Apr 2011
  • Posts: 10797
  • Total likes: 305
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 8
    • View Profile
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #21 on: April 22, 2020, 10:05:08 AM »
It’s a sacrifice they’re apparently willing to make. Sacrifice a (relative) few so the rest of us can go on with our lives. Frum DDFers have made this argument, so it doesn’t surprise me one bit coming from a progressive country like Sweden.
The argument is that lives are also lost indirectly from prolonged lockdowns.

What everybody neglects to mention is that there is no evidence at all of any immunity. It's only an assumption.
Purpose > Pleasure

Offline AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 20K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 22154
  • Total likes: 682
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 74
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #22 on: April 22, 2020, 10:11:59 AM »
The argument is that lives are also lost indirectly from prolonged lockdowns.

Even with an endless amount of data there are too many variables to accurately quantify that. At the end of the day Sweden’s policy can be narrowly interpreted as disregard for an increase in the death toll, and the point is that there’s a threshold to policymakers tolerance of that, and that threshold is apparently higher in Sweden.
My barber needs your support, he’s a real sweetheart.

https://www.gofundme.com/f/save-our-barber-shop

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 2007
  • Total likes: 1251
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #23 on: April 22, 2020, 10:19:07 AM »
Herd immunity is when a certain number of people develop immunity to a virus (either through vaccination or by being previously infected) and as a result the virus will not spread even if there are some infected people circulating in society

A) We don't know that there's any immunity from this virus. We don't know anything about re-infection. We don't know the long-term effects of having had this virus. This thing is a few months old and like nothing we've seen before. To assume herd immunity would apply here is playing roulette with billions of people with completely unquantified risks.

B) The herd immunity theory is generally applied to vaccinating the masses. When you give a vaccine, you're allowing each body to build up anti-bodies to that illness, thereby lowering the chance of that person contracting the illness. The more people with lower risk, the less that illness will be found in society, thereby lowering the risk of massive outbreaks. However, we give a vaccine, not the full illness itself. Vaccines are calculated risks, introducing a small enough dose for the body to create anti-bodies without exposing it to the full blown illness. Giving people the illness versus the vaccine would render herd immunity pointless, as everyone would get exposed to the full risks of each illness we're trying to prevent. Giving everyone Covid-19 doesn't get you herd immunity, just a pandemic with all the full blown repercussions.

So now... why is applying the herd immunity theory a good idea for Covid-19?
Please wear a mask.

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 2007
  • Total likes: 1251
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #24 on: April 22, 2020, 10:33:00 AM »
I'm not sure that's the argument. Isn't the argument that there is a certain threshold for shutting down society - I think everyone agrees to that. If we lockdown we'll have less deaths from flu and car accidents, right? If the death rate of this virus was .001%, no one would be advocating for a shutdown, right? (It would mean 3300 deaths in the US). If Sweden ends up not upending society and 3000 deaths, did they make the wrong decision? I'm not sure it's a question of having a higher value of life. Lockdowns have impacts on people's wellbeing as well. What is the shortened life expectancy if you gain 20 pounds? What about the emotional toll this takes on families. If we have an extra 500 gitin because of this, does that not mean something? What about if 50000 people lose their homes because they lost their livelihood? What about if we have an extra 5000 suicides? What if we close down schools for multiple years? I don't think it's as simple as whether or not you value life.

What about the things we don't know, like long-term effects? Does this make you more susceptible to the flu every year going forward? Does it cause impotence? Higher risk for blood clots? Does it make the common cold more deadly?

No one is advocating shutting down society until the end of time. But to lockdown everyone for a few months until there is a little more scientific knowledge about what this thing is and what it can do before exposing everyone to unknown effects seems like a prudent approach.
Please wear a mask.

Online S209

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 3778
  • Total likes: 907
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood, NJ
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, SPG Gold, Ritz Carlton Gold, *G, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Total Rewards Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, DDF Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #25 on: April 22, 2020, 10:54:11 AM »
There is always a possibility of things not leading where the data says it should it off things changing. The only way to make a good decision is based on the data known at the time. If there is something which later tells you otherwise it was beyond human ability to account for that.
This is the main point I was making about using available empirical data.

Some people/countries are bandying about herd immunity like it’s a legitimate option that makes sense to act upon. Some countries did that early and then backed off (UK), Sweden presumably has a similar theory.

Here’s the thing. Herd immunity to corona is a theory, not an assumption. There are aspects to corona which are very different that other viruses we’ve seen, and it’s not fully understood. If herd immunity turns out to work, it will have been a lucky guess (at great sacrifice and even more potential sacrifice) at best. If it doesn’t, well then we are continuing to find solutions as usual. But for the people/countries that made that assumption, they can’t say “Well we assumed this and this would happen”.. there is zero evidence of it, so how can you act upon such a theory?

It’s pure negligence, plain and simple.
Gowns By Shevy
732-806-1136
info@gownsbyshevy.com

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 8657
  • Total likes: 1919
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #26 on: April 22, 2020, 11:05:13 AM »
Giving people the illness versus the vaccine would render herd immunity pointless, as everyone would get exposed to the full risks of each illness we're trying to prevent. Giving everyone Covid-19 doesn't get you herd immunity, just a pandemic with all the full blown repercussions.

So now... why is applying the herd immunity theory a good idea for Covid-19?
Maybe your assumptions are wrong? 
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Online S209

  • Dansdeals Presidential Platinum Elite
  • ********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 3778
  • Total likes: 907
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood, NJ
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, SPG Gold, Ritz Carlton Gold, *G, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Total Rewards Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, DDF Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #27 on: April 22, 2020, 11:06:15 AM »
Maybe your assumptions are wrong?
Maybe, but is there evidence of that? Or is it a theory that some people are justifying Russian roulette with?
Gowns By Shevy
732-806-1136
info@gownsbyshevy.com

Offline CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 8657
  • Total likes: 1919
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #28 on: April 22, 2020, 11:09:49 AM »
Maybe, but is there evidence of that? Or is it a theory that some people are justifying Russian roulette with?
We know for a fact that many are infected and show no signs or only mild symptoms. There is strong belief among medical experts they build up some immunity. How much only time will tell.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Yard sale

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jun 2018
  • Posts: 809
  • Total likes: 419
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #29 on: April 22, 2020, 11:13:46 AM »
I think the whole premise is faulty here. When you are dealing with numbers so minuscule (a potential .01% shift in the death rate) there are so many factors that come into play that can result in a much larger impact on those numbers both good or bad that it makes little sense to plan policy hyper focused  on one set of numbers.

Harsh social distancing has its own undeniable impacts. Increase in obesity, sedentary lifestyle, suicide (hotlines are currently flooded in the United States). People skipping preventive care, well visits and necessary dental work etc. On the other hand there are far less work accidents and automobile deaths. Any one of these factors on its own could potential he have a larger than .01% impact. (Who is going to quantify the folks skipping their skin cancer screening who end up with melanoma etc. etc.)

Then there are the impacts that this is likely to have down the road.  Countries that go into a severe recession because of the shutdown of their economies , (and economists agree and even those that start re-opening are going to face severe financial difficulties and a long road to financial recovery) especially Sweden and Denmark that have nationalized healthcare are going to be facing massive budget shortfalls and cutbacks. What kind of impact do you think that is going to have on their healthcare system. They are going to further ration expensive procedures and diagnostic tests like mammograms and CAT scans.  Research and development will be slashed. Expensive cutting edge medical equipment purchases will be put off. And on and on. These are likely to have major impacts on the mortality rate going forward, especially in those categories that will be the first to see healthcare rationed further than it already is in a single payer system such as the elderly and terminally ill.

So it’s really kind of shortsighted to focus on just one tiny aspect, and one tiny number. Much of this is probably applicable to New York and New Jersey as well, although to a lesser degree since they have a private payer healthcare system. Nevertheless, they are negative impacts that will likely never be quantified.

 There are so many moving parts here in the macro picture that it’s really hard to make a snap judgment that New York and New Jersey all doing the right thing and the Southern states are the ones killing people. That Denmark is right and  Sweden is being reckless. There’s just so much more to the picture than that.


« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 11:19:16 AM by Yard sale »