Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison (Read 71656 times)

S209 · « **Reply #140 on:** April 22, 2020, 07:26:33 PM »

Quote from: avromie7 on April 22, 2020, 04:35:57 PM

I don't think you said this until now.

Perhaps it wasn’t as clear earlier, but regardless, that’s what I was saying.

Quote from: CountValentine on April 22, 2020, 05:29:04 PM

WOW!!! You sell him like a piece of meat over Passover and claim I stole him?

Didn’t you sell him back? Ganev

zh cohen · « **Reply #141 on:** April 22, 2020, 07:30:29 PM »

Quote from: aygart on April 22, 2020, 05:30:10 PM

Hamsters are not chometz.

But they eat chometz

zh cohen · « **Reply #142 on:** April 22, 2020, 07:32:12 PM »

Quote from: S209 on April 22, 2020, 04:26:26 PM

If you don’t know, then this isn’t part of the discussion, as they cancel each other out.

If you don't know the details of one of the factors, the answer is not to ignore it, it's to find out the details.

S209 · « **Reply #143 on:** April 22, 2020, 07:34:56 PM »

Quote from: zh cohen on April 22, 2020, 07:32:12 PM

If you don't know the details of one of the factors, the answer is not to ignore it, it's to find out the details.

Correct. But in the interim the case for mental health being a reason *not* to lockdown cannot be a contributing factor to override the case for lives as you can make an equally compelling case for mental health being a reason *to* lockdown. Should research prove that it’ll be worse under lockdown, then it can be used as a contributing rationale.

S209 · « **Reply #144 on:** April 22, 2020, 11:41:34 PM »

Quote from: Yard sale on April 22, 2020, 01:20:01 PM

Denmark: 64 per million
Sweden: 175 per million

UPDATE: it’s now 66 and 192 respectively. That number keeps moving.

yuneeq · « **Reply #145 on:** April 23, 2020, 08:07:10 AM »

Quote from: S209 on April 22, 2020, 11:41:34 PM

UPDATE: it’s now 66 and 192 respectively. That number keeps moving.

When will people learn to stop using unfinalized numbers as proof that COVID is no big deal? This has been proven over and over in every single country with a low death rate, and yet people continue to make the same mistakes. Is the Swedish case count still growing? Yes. Does COVID kill people - yes. So why, 3 months into the virus, are you assuming that the 175 per million number won’t continue to go higher and higher if there are no measures to stop it? And how exactly can you compare that statistic to a country that has basically staved off the virus and is most likely to stay low?

I find these arguments to be unbelievably dumb, just as much as the arguments a few months ago claiming that the flu is much worse because the flu kills 36k Americans and COVID only killed 100 Americans.

cmey · « **Reply #146 on:** April 23, 2020, 04:57:37 PM »

If this is true does it mean Israel is caving into Sweden and abandoning the Denmark model?

S209 · « **Reply #147 on:** April 23, 2020, 08:52:04 PM »

Quote from: cmey on April 23, 2020, 04:57:37 PM

If this is true does it mean Israel is caving into Sweden and abandoning the Denmark model?

No, it means they think they’ve kept the virus at bay and hopefully mostly eliminated it and as an extra precaution are only going to let those under 50 out for now

Quote from: yuneeq on April 23, 2020, 08:07:10 AM

When will people learn to stop using unfinalized numbers as proof that COVID is no big deal? This has been proven over and over in every single country with a low death rate, and yet people continue to make the same mistakes. Is the Swedish case count still growing? Yes. Does COVID kill people - yes. So why, 3 months into the virus, are you assuming that the 175 per million number won’t continue to go higher and higher if there are no measures to stop it? And how exactly can you compare that statistic to a country that has basically staved off the virus and is most likely to stay low?

I find these arguments to be unbelievably dumb, just as much as the arguments a few months ago claiming that the flu is much worse because the flu kills 36k Americans and COVID only killed 100 Americans.

+1000
By the way, today’s numbers:
Denmark: 68
Sweden: 200

That Sweden needle is still swinging

Savingsbeast · « **Reply #148 on:** April 23, 2020, 09:13:49 PM »

Apparently Sweden's chief epidemiologist believes they're close to reaching herd immunity in Stockholm.

Also, I always thought that herd immunity is when 80-90% of the population is immune. Was surprised to see CNBC use 60% for herd immunity.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

cmey · « **Reply #149 on:** April 23, 2020, 09:25:57 PM »

Quote from: Savingsbeast on April 23, 2020, 09:13:49 PM

Apparently Sweden's chief epidemiologist believes they're close to reaching herd immunity in Stockholm.

Also, I always thought that herd immunity is when 80-90% of the population is immune. Was surprised to see CNBC use 60% for herd immunity.

https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

The R0 of covid is actually pretty low compared to measles and other diseases. Herd immunity may be as low as 50%

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/us-covid-19-herd-immunity-2020-4%3famp

S209 · « **Reply #150 on:** April 24, 2020, 02:20:41 AM »

Quote from: cmey on April 23, 2020, 09:25:57 PM

The R0 of covid is actually pretty low compared to measles and other diseases. Herd immunity may be as low as 50%

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/us-covid-19-herd-immunity-2020-4%3famp

They have been calculating R0 based on a much lower number of cases than antibody testing has shown. If those statistics are true than the R0 number is higher.

Yard sale · « **Reply #151 on:** April 24, 2020, 05:19:34 AM »

Quote from: S209 on April 24, 2020, 02:20:41 AM

They have been calculating R0 based on a much lower number of cases than antibody testing has shown. If those statistics are true than the R0 number is higher.

Good point

AsherO · « **Reply #152 on:** April 24, 2020, 06:34:16 AM »

Quote from: S209 on April 24, 2020, 02:20:41 AM

They have been calculating R0 based on a much lower number of cases than antibody testing has shown. If those statistics are true than the R0 number is higher.

+1, I don’t think they have clarity on R0 and their assumption sounds low.

Iz · « **Reply #153 on:** April 24, 2020, 04:45:52 PM »

https://www.wsj.com/articles/maybe-the-experts-were-right-about-covid-19-the-first-time-11587659799?mod=hp_opin_pos_3

@S209 I'd love to hear your thoughts about this.

S209 · « **Reply #154 on:** April 24, 2020, 05:32:39 PM »

Quote from: Iz on April 24, 2020, 04:45:52 PM

https://www.wsj.com/articles/maybe-the-experts-were-right-about-covid-19-the-first-time-11587659799?mod=hp_opin_pos_3

@S209 I'd love to hear your thoughts about this.

Again, I need a way around the paywall. Do you have a way or you’re a subscriber?

S209 · « **Reply #155 on:** April 24, 2020, 06:29:03 PM »

Quote from: S209 on April 23, 2020, 08:52:04 PM

By the way, today’s numbers:
Denmark: 68
Sweden: 200

That Sweden needle is still swinging

Now Denmark 70 and Sweden 213. Surpassed triple.

Savingsbeast · « **Reply #156 on:** April 24, 2020, 06:32:22 PM »

Quote from: S209 on April 24, 2020, 06:29:03 PM

Now Denmark 70 and Sweden 213. Surpassed triple.

Not really, Sweden's population is twice as big so it's only 50% more deaths per capita.

S209 · « **Reply #157 on:** April 24, 2020, 06:37:48 PM »

Quote from: Savingsbeast on April 24, 2020, 06:32:22 PM

Not really, Sweden's population is twice as big so it's only 50% more deaths per capita.

It is deaths per million we are discussing, so no, triple. Actual deaths, Sweden is more than 5x

Iz · « **Reply #158 on:** April 25, 2020, 09:20:14 PM »

Quote from: S209 on April 24, 2020, 05:32:39 PM

Again, I need a way around the paywall. Do you have a way or you’re a subscriber?

Subscriber. There is a way. Look around here...

Yard sale · « **Reply #159 on:** April 26, 2020, 09:34:46 AM »

https://pjmedia.com/trending/watch-california-docs-say-lockdown-vs-non-lockdown-did-not-produce-a-statistically-different-number-of-deaths/

“He specifically noted that the difference in the number of deaths between Sweden, with limited restrictions, and Norway, which locked down, is not statistically significant.

"Lockdown versus non-lockdown did not produce a statistically different number of deaths. That is the bottom line," said Erickson.”