Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison

[neveryou]

How do you know if they are inflated or not? You can't gamble and do nothing.
Full disclosure: I am asking how would you know if the numbers were inflated and how would you know if they weren't inflated. 

Well being that we were listening to Neil Ferguson and he made a crazy prediction in 2005 https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke?__twitter_impression=true that 200 million will die, it killed less than 500

He predicted that mad cow disease would kill between 50-50,000 , it killed 178

So this guy that were basing our shutdown on is way off on all of his predictions

Hes like al gore, the world is going to end every few years, at first there was going to be an ice age now its global warming

[S209]

I don't, but the incentive is there and it is a win win. Predicting low is not.

True, but the numbers out of Italy and other hard hit countries seemed to indicate that hundreds of thousands would die. We can’t know for sure now what would have happened without locking down, and may never, but considering 60K+ will definitely die WITH locking down its reasonable to assume we dramatically lowered the spread and number of deaths.

A million or more deaths was always the highest end of the most dramatic models. They weren’t lent credence by most people in positions of authority (Richie Roberts aside ).The numbers most people were using was hundreds of thousands, and they don’t look so dumb now..

Remember, opponents of lockdowns at the time were telling us it would be no worse than swine flu. In under 8 weeks we’re already close to hitting 6x the number of deaths from a full year of swine flu. One thing is for certain- THOSE models were way off.

[neveryou]

How do you know if they are inflated or not? You can't gamble and do nothing.
Full disclosure: I am asking how would you know if the numbers were inflated and how would you know if they weren't inflated. 

I'm not saying to do nothing
But not allowing healthy people to work (even with social distancing) or having kids go to school (the kids death rate is so so low) and having blanket laws for the whole usa is stupid

[CountValentine]

Hes like al gore, the world is going to end every few years, at first there was going to be an ice age now its global warming

At least he didn't say 15 will be 0 and 60k+ die. Who would you rather have?

[S209]

Well being that we were listening to Neil Ferguson and he made a crazy prediction in 2005 https://amp.theguardian.com/world/2005/sep/30/birdflu.jamessturcke?__twitter_impression=true that 200 million will die, it killed less than 500

He predicted that mad cow disease would kill between 50-50,000 , it killed 178

So this guy that were basing our shutdown on is way off on all of his predictions

Hes like al gore, the world is going to end every few years, at first there was going to be an ice age now its global warming

What did you believe before this hit? Let me guess, you said it was going to be less than swine flu. YOUR models were proven 100% false, while anyone who estimated lots of deaths happening has been proven right. We may never know what the devastation would have looked like without preventative measures, but it sure looks a lot closer to 100K deaths than 12K.

It’s impossible to predict exactly what will happen, especially if it’s largely dependent on how people will react, but the majority of level headed people never said it would be millions. Although perhaps it actually would have been, without social distancing. The deaths per million to date of places like Spain and Italy, (though certain to rise), translated to the US, would equal roughly 150-200K deaths.

[avromie7]

What did you believe before this hit? Let me guess, you said it was going to be less than swine flu. YOUR models were proven 100% false, while anyone who estimated lots of deaths happening has been proven right.

A broken clock is right twice a day. This doesn't mean we should all go running because a wacko came up with another crazy prediction.

[AsherO]

I'm not saying to do nothing
But not allowing healthy people to work (even with social distancing) or having kids go to school (the kids death rate is so so low) and having blanket laws for the whole usa is stupid

It’s clear you’re not listening because you’ve been told this before but keep repeating your questions:

Kids are kept home fromschool because they can spread the infection to adults (especially a concern with them spreading it to those at-risk, namely seniors and immunocompromised).

[CountValentine]

At least he didn't say 15 will be 0 and 60k+ die. Who would you rather have?

In case you missed the question. @neveryou 

[S209]

A broken clock is right twice a day. This doesn't mean we should all go running because a wacko came up with another crazy prediction.

Thi wasn’t based on predictions, it was based on facts on the ground in many parts of the world

[kosherjid]

It’s clear you’re not listening because you’ve been told this before but keep repeating your questions:

Kids are kept home fromschool because they can spread the infection to adults (especially a concern with them spreading it to those at-risk, namely seniors and immunocompromised).

Maybe he's swiss ? https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/sci-tech/fact-check_true-or-false--children-are-not-the-drivers-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/45710550

[AsherO]

Maybe he's swiss ? https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/sci-tech/fact-check_true-or-false--children-are-not-the-drivers-of-the-coronavirus-pandemic/45710550

Interesting article. Not enough evidence for me.

[CountValentine]

Not enough evidence for any of this stuff one way or the other.

[Proisrael]

It’s clear you’re not listening because you’ve been told this before but keep repeating your questions:

Kids are kept home fromschool because they can spread the infection to adults (especially a concern with them spreading it to those at-risk, namely seniors and immunocompromised).

Keep kids away from the seniors and immunocompromised.......Why should everyone have to suffer, it makes no sense.

[yuneeq]

Keep kids away from the seniors and immunocompromised.......Why should everyone have to suffer, it makes no sense.

Kids have parents. If a kid is infected, we can safely assume the parent will get infected as well. Now let’s ask the obvious - who do you think takes care of the seniors and immunocompromised? I’m guessing only doctors and nurses that have no kids and never come in contact with people that have kids?

[yuneeq]

The answer to my question is obvious - why assume that corona is so contagious and that the parents will catch it? Oh and also 95% of people got corona already so everyone is already immune.

[CountValentine]

Kids have parents. If a kid is infected, we can safely assume the parent will get infected as well.

The answer to my question is obvious - why assume that corona is so contagious and that the parents will catch it?

Ok I am not following. Are you saying we should assume for safety reasons? Or we should assume because that is what is actually happening?

I was going to ask in one sentence but the grammar police would get me. They probably will get me anyway for starting a sentence with a conjunction. 
Disclaimer: Just having fun with this part and not with what I asked. 

[yuneeq]

Ok I am not following. Are you saying we should assume for safety reasons? Or we should assume because that is what is actually happening?

I was going to ask in one sentence but the grammar police would get me. They probably will get me anyway for starting a sentence with a conjunction. 
Disclaimer: Just having fun with this part and not with what I asked. 

We can safely assume that parents will get infected because that is reality, and it has nothing to do with the sarcastic, contradictory answer I gave in the next post.

[CountValentine]

We can safely assume that parents will get infected because that is reality, and it has nothing to do with the sarcastic, contradictory answer I gave in the next post.

We don't have any/enough data that shows that, do we?
A family of 6 can have 3 infected and they don't know why.
Kids are less likely to die. That we know so far. Does that mean they are less like to catch it? If they do catch it are they less contagious than adults. Does their contagion last less than adults. Don't think we have the answers so far.

IMHO we should assume for safety reasons.

[CountValentine]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/sweden-says-its-coronavirus-approach-has-worked-the-numbers-show-a-different-story/ar-BB13ieZO?ocid=spartanntp

[S209]

Here’s a counterpoint to mine. Rebuttal may follow if I get antagonized 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html