Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison

[S209]

Population density has to be a factor here too. I know for a fact that Norway did not practice strict social distancing at first, and per capita their numbers (according to you) are lower than Denmark.

Generally I would suggest weather as a possible factor as well, since Norway is further north (especially Northern Norway, though most of the population is in the south half of the country). But the April weather has been seasonably warm, granted that’s after they got serious about social distancing.

Now that I looked into it a bit, I’m curious why you say this. Norway closed all schools and most businesses on March 12, earlier than most countries (4 days before Denmark), and before they had even one death (that occurred later the same day). They may not have implemented all of the closures other countries did, but they were swifter than most and pretty strict overall, in strong contrast to Sweden, the UK, Ireland, etc.

In fact, Norway is a great country to show the death gap between countries that locked down and countries that didn’t. They are also a good country to look at as far as what works and what doesn’t, because they picked and chose what they locked down.

[AsherO]

Now that I looked into it a bit, I’m curious why you say this. Norway closed all schools and most businesses on March 12, earlier than most countries (4 days before Denmark), and before they had even one death (that occurred later the same day). They may not have implemented all of the closures other countries did, but they were swifter than most and pretty strict overall, in strong contrast to Sweden, the UK, Ireland, etc.

In fact, Norway is a great country to show the death gap between countries that locked down and countries that didn’t. They are also a good country to look at as far as what works and what doesn’t, because they picked and chose what they locked down.

IINM people were still having meals in restaurants after March 12th.

[aygart]

Now that I looked into it a bit, I’m curious why you say this. Norway closed all schools and most businesses on March 12, earlier than most countries (4 days before Denmark), and before they had even one death (that occurred later the same day). They may not have implemented all of the closures other countries did, but they were swifter than most and pretty strict overall, in strong contrast to Sweden, the UK, Ireland, etc.

In fact, Norway is a great country to show the death gap between countries that locked down and countries that didn’t. They are also a good country to look at as far as what works and what doesn’t, because they picked and chose what they locked down.

I think that @Something Fishy knows about the lockdowns in some Nordic countries.

[S209]

IINM people were still having meals in restaurants after March 12th.

From here it seems that restaurants were allowed to be open with restrictions, but most businesses and all large gatherings and schools were closed

On 12 March, a national lockdown was announced, effective from 18:00 the same day. For two weeks, schools, kindergartens, fitness centres, hair salons etc. are closed. Sports and cultural events and gatherings are banned and restrictions apply to restaurants.

[KSMH]

https://twitter.com/TexasRedFox13/status/1255533367438774273?s=20

[Ergel]

Wow. So...what do we learn from Sweden, assuming this is true?

[Lurker]

Wow. So...what do we learn from Sweden, assuming this is true?

Have you ever watched sports? Have you ever tried to figure out a coach's strategy or game plan after watching 2 plays?

[S209]

Wow. So...what do we learn from Sweden, assuming this is true?

That locking down early seems to have been the surest way to save many lives, for one.. which measures you took didn’t necessarily make a difference, although schools seem to have been a big thing

[AsherO]

That locking down early seems to have been the surest way to save many lives, for one.. which measures you took didn’t necessarily make a difference, although schools seem to have been a big thing

”But kids don’t get Corona...”. 

[ari3]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/29/sweden-no-lockdown-update-phil-black-ebof-dnt-vpx.cnn

[S209]

https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2020/04/29/sweden-no-lockdown-update-phil-black-ebof-dnt-vpx.cnn

Very sobering. Especially how they show Norway, Finland, and Denmark together vs. Sweden and it’s not even close.

[Yard sale]

Very sobering. Especially how they show Norway, Finland, and Denmark together vs. Sweden and it’s not even close.

So is it statistically significant and worrying or not?One article says definitely. The other says not really. Everyone seems to be interpreting it the way they like.

[avromie7]

Very sobering. Especially how they show Norway, Finland, and Denmark together vs. Sweden and it’s not even close.

I didn't watch the video, but we won't know if their method is better until the whole thing is over and we can see if they still have much more deaths.

[israshot]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

[S209]

https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1255825648448348161

Interesting, most of the ones who are doubting the decision are strong Trump supporters through thick and thin, and the Dems are the ones who are for it, they’re just saying it should have been harsher and earlier.

Who is he trying to win over? His base?

I didn't watch the video, but we won't know if their method is better until the whole thing is over and we can see if they still have much more deaths.

While there is no doubt this is true, as of now I think the case is strongly in the direction of the Denmark method being correct. It may take many months or even years to asses the true impact of both decisions, but that is where the evidence is pointing.

So is it statistically significant and worrying or not?One article says definitely. The other says not really. Everyone seems to be interpreting it the way they like.

Of course it’s statistically significant, why would you need an article to tell you if it is or isn’t? As of today, the death toll in Sweden is shockingly high for any of the Nordic countries and growing.

The only question remaining is will the other countries catch up at some point, and how devastating the impacts of lockdown are in the other countries vs. Sweden (which obviously sustained some serious economic blows as well).

[mme]

Interesting, most of the ones who are doubting the decision are strong Trump supporters through thick and thin, and the Dems are the ones who are for it, they’re just saying it should have been harsher and earlier.

not really they are just saying we need to reopen

[avromie7]

While there is no doubt this is true, as of now I think the case is strongly in the direction of the Denmark method being correct. It may take many months or even years to asses the true impact of both decisions, but that is where the evidence is pointing.

While this may be true, it's intellectually dishonest. The only way for the swedish model to be better is for it to look worse in the beginning.

[CountValentine]

...is for it to look worse in the beginning.

They are doing great on this part.

[S209]

While this may be true, it's intellectually dishonest. The only way for the swedish model to be better is for it to look worse in the beginning.

This bad? They knew the discrepancy would be this large? IINM the Swedish model is/was not to achieve “herd immunity”, but to slow down the virus through social distancing without adopting draconian measures, and hopefully rely on higher infection numbers among the young and healthy to slow it down longer term as well. I don’t think they expected 2,500 deaths at this point.

[Yard sale]

Interesting, most of the ones who are doubting the decision are strong Trump supporters through thick and thin, and the Dems are the ones who are for it, they’re just saying it should have been harsher and earlier.

Who is he trying to win over? His base?While there is no doubt this is true, as of now I think the case is strongly in the direction of the Denmark method being correct. It may take many months or even years to asses the true impact of both decisions, but that is where the evidence is pointing.Of course it’s statistically significant, why would you need an article to tell you if it is or isn’t? As of today, the death toll in Sweden is shockingly high for any of the Nordic countries and growing.

The only question remaining is will the other countries catch up at some point, and how devastating the impacts of lockdown are in the other countries vs. Sweden (which obviously sustained some serious economic blows as well).

 It is really premature for people to prognosticate based on the numbers we are seeing now. The numbers are obviously not supposed to be looking as good as Denmark now. That is part and parcel of what one would expect to see in the short term with a herd immunity approach versus social isolation. Kind of like calling a marathon for the guy who is sprinting I head in the 1st mile versus the guy who is pacing himself. We will have to wait a while down the road to reach any valid conclusions. This has little to do with Trump opening his mouth. Anyone watching the way the politicians are playing with facts and numbers shouldn’t put any more stock in Trump than in Cuomo or Murphy. All of them play with numbers that are open to interpretation.

The actual death toll in Sweden as of now is  minuscule relative to population (double the pop. of Denmark).  I don’t believe that any country in the world would shut down for three months and destroy their economy to save 1500-2000 lives (many of whom are aged or co-morbidities and have a limited life expectancy to begin with. (Of course every life is precious but the staggering cost has to be weighed in the balance)

If you wanted to save a couple of thousand lives you could do that any other year and save the lives lost in motor vehicle crashes, workplace accidents, violent crime etc. The relevant question is extrapolating the numbers going forward. Will Sweden suffer such a heavy toll in the long run versus  Denmark of such magnitude that would justify destroying the economy to prevent it? That is a very open question going forward. What gives you any confidence that going forward Sweden will suffer a massive loss of life versus Denmark of the magnitude that would justify having shut down the economy?