Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 70410 times)

Offline Yard sale

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jun 2018
  • Posts: 900
  • Total likes: 471
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #320 on: May 24, 2020, 09:29:56 PM »
https://www.sfgate.com/science/article/Sweden-herd-immunity-experiment-backfires-covid-15289437.php
As I previously pointed out this logic is a סתירה מיניה וביה.
Saying that Sweden failed because other countries that did lockdown have close to the same rates of antibodies in their population is essentially saying that the lockdowns were ineffective since the virus spread to a similar percent of the population as Sweden.

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 5054
  • Total likes: 6390
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #321 on: May 24, 2020, 09:35:30 PM »
As I previously pointed out this logic is a סתירה מיניה וביה.
Saying that Sweden failed because other countries that did lockdown have close to the same rates of antibodies in their population is essentially saying that the lockdowns were ineffective since the virus spread to a similar percent of the population as Sweden.

Except they got those anti-body rates at a lower cost of life. That's a big win in my book.
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline avromie7

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Feb 2014
  • Posts: 8188
  • Total likes: 2713
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #322 on: May 24, 2020, 09:48:16 PM »
Except they got those anti-body rates at a lower cost of life. That's a big win in my book.
If the same number of people are infected, clearly it's not the lockdown that worked, the difference in deaths must have a different reason.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8611
  • Total likes: 3999
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #323 on: May 24, 2020, 10:00:41 PM »
As I previously pointed out this logic is a סתירה מיניה וביה.
Saying that Sweden failed because other countries that did lockdown have close to the same rates of antibodies in their population is essentially saying that the lockdowns were ineffective since the virus spread to a similar percent of the population as Sweden.

If the same number of people are infected, clearly it's not the lockdown that worked, the difference in deaths must have a different reason.

I think it’s all explainable.

Lockdowns around the world are not full lockdowns. And Sweden, despite not locking down, still had many people that were practicing social distancing and being careful despite what the law said. (There’s actually plenty of evidence of this phenomenon in the US, where states were effectively in self-lockdown before any order was given from the governor.)

In addition, not all people are created alike. If I told you 30% of a specific demographic have antibodies, it makes a significant difference if that demographic consists of 30 year olds or if it consists of nursing home residents. I think what we are seeing is that in Sweden, many people are being careful, but more high risk people are putting themselves in high risk situations due to their policies. If Sweden’s antibody numbers went up from 6% to just 7% due to high risk people, it would explain all the deaths.
Visibly Jewish

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 5054
  • Total likes: 6390
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #324 on: May 24, 2020, 10:01:25 PM »
If the same number of people are infected, clearly it's not the lockdown that worked, the difference in deaths must have a different reason.

But something was different. You don't think it's possible that reducing the viral load each of the exposed people got may have played a part in their bodies fighting off the virus before it became lethal?
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline avromie7

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Feb 2014
  • Posts: 8188
  • Total likes: 2713
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #325 on: May 24, 2020, 11:42:51 PM »

In short, government imposed lockdowns don't help.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Yard sale

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jun 2018
  • Posts: 900
  • Total likes: 471
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #326 on: May 24, 2020, 11:46:12 PM »
But something was different. You don't think it's possible that reducing the viral load each of the exposed people got may have played a part in their bodies fighting off the virus before it became lethal?

I guess it’s possible. In that case other countries lucked out for entirely the wrong reason. Certainly no countries are making the claim that they prevented almost no infections with the lockdown and merely lessened the overall viral load. It’s more likely that either the antibody numbers are off, or that the deaths are unrelated to the overall rate of infection. Fatality numbers are certainly all over the map in relation to infection rates globally.

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8611
  • Total likes: 3999
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #327 on: May 24, 2020, 11:49:01 PM »
In short, government imposed lockdowns don't help.

Not what I said. They help prevent the riskiest people from getting infected and dying, according to my theory. In other words, they help keep the death rate way, way down.
Visibly Jewish

Offline avromie7

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Feb 2014
  • Posts: 8188
  • Total likes: 2713
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 6
    • View Profile
  • Location: Lakewood
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #328 on: May 25, 2020, 12:03:20 AM »
Not what I said. They help prevent the riskiest people from getting infected and dying, according to my theory. In other words, they help keep the death rate way, way down.
I didn't reread the entire post, I thought I remembered everything from when you originally posted it.

Do you have evidence that the makeup of people with antibodies skews older in sweden vs other countries?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Yard sale

  • Dansdeals Platinum Elite + Lifetime Gold Elite
  • ******
  • Join Date: Jun 2018
  • Posts: 900
  • Total likes: 471
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 0
    • View Profile
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #329 on: May 25, 2020, 12:07:35 AM »
Not what I said. They help prevent the riskiest people from getting infected and dying, according to my theory. In other words, they help keep the death rate way, way down.

None of the models that anyone is using to implement policy in hundreds of countries across the globe is showing this. Every model shows predicted new infections proportional to the degree of lockdown and deaths directly related to the number of infections. Are you making the case that all policy across the globe is being based on faulty models? Wow.

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8611
  • Total likes: 3999
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #330 on: May 25, 2020, 12:49:09 AM »
I didn't reread the entire post, I thought I remembered everything from when you originally posted it.

Do you have evidence that the makeup of people with antibodies skews older in sweden vs other countries?

I don’t have evidence of that, and I will restate that it’s a theory. I thought of the idea when I saw the stat that 20% of NYC has antibodies. That would imply an extremely low death rate, but it didn’t jibe with my anecdotal evidence, which is fine. Then I noticed the 20% was entirely comprised of a singular demographic. Shoppers in grocery stores. Who most likely were not old and immune compromised. And since then, it made me believe that not all antibody studies should be compared. For example, articles about Sweden’s  state “The study drew on some 1,100 tests from across the country”. I don’t know the integrity of the study, but assuming it is legitimate, it leaves us with questions that are most easily explained by demographic differences.
« Last Edit: May 25, 2020, 12:57:42 AM by yuneeq »
Visibly Jewish

Online aygart

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 17397
  • Total likes: 14334
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 14
    • View Profile
    • Lower Watt Energy Brokers
  • Programs: www.lowerwatt.com
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #331 on: May 25, 2020, 07:58:24 AM »
I don’t have evidence of that, and I will restate that it’s a theory. I thought of the idea when I saw the stat that 20% of NYC has antibodies. That would imply an extremely low death rate, but it didn’t jibe with my anecdotal evidence, which is fine. Then I noticed the 20% was entirely comprised of a singular demographic. Shoppers in grocery stores. Who most likely were not old and immune compromised. And since then, it made me believe that not all antibody studies should be compared. For example, articles about Sweden’s  state “The study drew on some 1,100 tests from across the country”. I don’t know the integrity of the study, but assuming it is legitimate, it leaves us with questions that are most easily explained by demographic differences.
One of the first things to check for when you have conflicting data samples is selection bias.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline yuneeq

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jan 2013
  • Posts: 8611
  • Total likes: 3999
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 10
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
  • Location: NJ
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #332 on: May 25, 2020, 09:18:23 AM »
One of the first things to check for when you have conflicting data samples is selection bias.

That summarizes it a lot better than I did
Visibly Jewish

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #333 on: May 26, 2020, 09:56:57 PM »
Deaths reported today:

Sweden: 96
Denmark: 0

Remember, they are both basically open to the same extent and have been for some time
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline Lurker

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jul 2019
  • Posts: 5054
  • Total likes: 6390
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 2
    • View Profile
  • Location: As always, silence is NOT an admission of agreement on DDF. It just means that people lack the stamina to keep on arguing with made up "facts", illogical arguments, deceiving statements, nasty and degrading comments, and fuzzy math. - @yelped
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #335 on: May 26, 2020, 10:25:44 PM »
Deaths reported today:

Sweden: 96
Denmark: 0

Remember, they are both basically open to the same extent and have been for some time

What are the current Per Million numbers?
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline S209

  • Dansdeals Lifetime Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *********
  • Join Date: Jun 2016
  • Posts: 7469
  • Total likes: 3930
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 1
  • Gender: Male
    • View Profile
    • Gowns By Shevy
  • Location: Lakewood
  • Programs: Marriott Gold, Star Alliance Gold, Hyatt Explorist, Hertz PC, National EE, Rock Royalty Wild Card, Wyndham Diamond, MLife Gold, Caesars Diamond, Hilton Diamond, Uber VIP, IHG Platinum Elite, ANA Platinum, DDF Lifetime Prez Platinum Elite, AmEx Platinum
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #336 on: May 26, 2020, 10:53:19 PM »
What are the current Per Million numbers?
Sweden: 409
Denmark: 97
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Online AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30534
  • Total likes: 7831
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #337 on: June 04, 2020, 07:41:14 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell

I don’t know the exact numbers but Sweden is still recording thousands of new daily cases, Norway isn’t and I suspect Denmark isn’t either. So it isn’t over yet.
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael

Online CountValentine

  • Dansdeals Lifetime 10K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • *******
  • Join Date: Mar 2013
  • Posts: 15788
  • Total likes: 7316
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips -1
  • Gender: Female
    • View Profile
  • Location: Poland - Exiled
  • Programs: DAOTYA, DDF Level 3, 5K Lounge
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #338 on: June 04, 2020, 09:12:36 AM »
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/03/architect-of-sweden-coronavirus-strategy-admits-too-many-died-anders-tegnell

I don’t know the exact numbers but Sweden is still recording thousands of new daily cases, Norway isn’t and I suspect Denmark isn’t either. So it isn’t over yet.
Refreshing to see them acknowledging their mistakes.
Only on DDF does 24/6 mean 24/5/half/half

Online AsherO

  • Global Moderator
  • Dansdeals Lifetime 30K Presidential Platinum Elite
  • **********
  • Join Date: May 2008
  • Posts: 30534
  • Total likes: 7831
  • DansDeals.com Hat Tips 79
    • View Profile
  • Location: NYC
Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #339 on: June 04, 2020, 09:20:01 AM »
Refreshing to see them acknowledging their mistakes.

One thing that would never (or at least unlikely to) happen in America.
100% of Likes will be donated to support our brothers and sisters in Eretz Yisrael