Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 70452 times)

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #380 on: August 10, 2020, 11:31:25 AM »
You show Sweden at 41 cases to prove a point and then claim he is playing numbers games. Bottom line. If Sweden has herd immunity you’d expect them to have less new cases than a country with no immunity.
The point was not to show the numbers. The point is that the media portrayal of Denmark reopening unscathed while Sweden made the wrong move by staying open is premature as the story is far from over. The countries that imposed harsh crackdowns are inevitably facing new waves that continue to plague them as they try to reopen. The PM of Denmark is calling for renewed restrictions due to the resurgence. Asking people to do strict SD until a vaccine is widespread 12-18 months or more down the road simply isn’t realistic. There is only so long you can keep a populace bottled up unless you are a police state like China.

And fatality numbers are not the whole story either. The lions share are over 80, many with dementia and near the end of their lives to begin with. I’ll bet that when you look at total excess deaths 18-24 months from now for the period going back to the start of covid you with see a very small amount of excess deaths if any.

On the flip side you have places that shut down at a cost of decimating their retail, travel and restaurant industries that will take a decade or more for them to fully recover if ever. You have disrupted the educational system to the point that the most challenged student populations such as minority and special needs have fallen so far behind many will never recover. You had a powder keg of young people locked inside with no outlet that almost certainly was a factor in the widespread looting and rioting that will perpetuate the cycle of poverty and despair that plagues America’s urban areas.

Is it really so clear that Sweden made the wrong decision?

Offline aygart

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #381 on: August 10, 2020, 11:37:38 AM »
The point was not to show the numbers. The point is that the media portrayal of Denmark reopening unscathed while Sweden made the wrong move by staying open is premature as the story is far from over. The countries that imposed harsh crackdowns are inevitably facing new waves that continue to plague them as they try to reopen. The PM of Denmark is calling for renewed restrictions due to the resurgence. Asking people to do strict SD until a vaccine is widespread 12-18 months or more down the road simply isn’t realistic. There is only so long you can keep a populace bottled up unless you are a police state like China.

And fatality numbers are not the whole story either. The lions share are over 80, many with dementia and near the end of their lives to begin with. I’ll bet that when you look at total excess deaths 18-24 months from now for the period going back to the start of covid you with see a very small amount of excess deaths if any.

On the flip side you have places that shut down at a cost of decimating their retail, travel and restaurant industries that will take a decade or more for them to fully recover if ever. You have disrupted the educational system to the point that the most challenged student populations such as minority and special needs have fallen so far behind many will never recover. You had a powder keg of young people locked inside with no outlet that almost certainly was a factor in the widespread looting and rioting that will perpetuate the cycle of poverty and despair that plagues America’s urban areas.

Is it really so clear that Sweden made the wrong decision?

How much less economic inpact was there in Sweden?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #382 on: August 10, 2020, 11:37:53 AM »
And fatality numbers are not the whole story either. The lions share are over 80, many with dementia and near the end of their lives to begin with. I’ll bet that when you look at total excess deaths 18-24 months from now for the period going back to the start of covid you with see a very small amount of excess deaths if any.

This is assuming that any long-term effect don't cause an uptick in deaths. Considering how many people are presenting with cardiovascular and respiratory issues, I'd be curious to see if we see a rise in heart attack or pneumonia deaths over the next few years.
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #383 on: August 10, 2020, 11:50:04 AM »
How much less economic inpact was there in Sweden?
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/06/899776725/sweden-records-largest-gdp-drop-since-1980-but-outperforms-many-other-eu-countri

So far they are outperforming but the real story will be going forward as it becomes apparent just how much of the economic damage ends up being long term.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #384 on: August 10, 2020, 11:54:07 AM »
So Denmark is doing 4x more test per capita than Sweden. That sheds new light on this conversation. What is the positivity rate?
Good points. The positivity rate would be a good indicator. Denmark did do substantially more testing throughout but I don’t see that testing accelerated recently to the point that the increased numbers would be linked to testing.


Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #385 on: August 10, 2020, 11:56:16 AM »
Good points. The positivity rate would be a good indicator.
So what is the recent positivity rate?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #386 on: August 10, 2020, 11:58:41 AM »
Good points. The positivity rate would be a good indicator. Denmark did do substantially more testing throughout but I don’t see that testing accelerated recently to the point that the increased numbers would be linked to testing.


If you barely test, there's a great chance you won't find cases. That doesn't mean they aren't there. The US destroyed Europe in February. We had no cases.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #387 on: August 10, 2020, 11:59:18 AM »
So what is the recent positivity rate?
Anyone?

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #388 on: August 10, 2020, 12:01:43 PM »
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8607731/amp/Why-Sweden-pilloried-world-refusing-lock-having-laugh.html

On the other hand, those taking victory laps like this are utterly ridiculous. There’s a long was to go before one can conclusively call this one.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #390 on: August 10, 2020, 12:42:50 PM »
How much less economic inpact was there in Sweden?

Sweden’s economy performed worse than both Norway and Denmark.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.html
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Offline yaakov35

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Offline aygart

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Feelings don't care about your facts

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #394 on: August 12, 2020, 11:51:30 AM »
https://fee.org/articles/bbc-sweden-s-economy-is-doing-way-better-than-the-rest-of-the-eu-during-the-covid-19-pandemic/
Are they using different measuremnets?
Also, one thing I noticed is that the NYT article compares them to the nearby countries while the BBC article is comparing them to hard-hit and larger countries. Is it cherry-picked data for one or both of them?
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Offline yaakov35

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #395 on: August 12, 2020, 11:55:49 AM »
Also, one thing I noticed is that the NYT article compares them to the nearby countries while the BBC article is comparing them to hard-hit and larger countries. Is it cherry-picked data for one or both of them?
"Indeed, a recent report from Capital Economics, an economic research firm based in London, concludes that Sweden’s economy is the least damaged in Europe, the "best of a bad bunch."

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #396 on: August 12, 2020, 12:28:24 PM »
"Indeed, a recent report from Capital Economics, an economic research firm based in London, concludes that Sweden’s economy is the least damaged in Europe, the "best of a bad bunch."

Okay, so now that we have different places giving conflicting conclusions, which one is correct? Are they both based on pre-concieved notions and biases? One of them? How do we iron this out? Anecdotally I am seeing here that the people pushing either side of this fit in perfectly with their preconcieved notions. That doesn't make it true.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #397 on: August 12, 2020, 12:36:56 PM »
Okay, so now that we have different places giving conflicting conclusions, which one is correct? Are they both based on pre-concieved notions and biases? One of them? How do we iron this out? Anecdotally I am seeing here that the people pushing either side of this fit in perfectly with their preconcieved notions. That doesn't make it true.
Even if you go with the one that favors Sweden it only puts then slightly ahead of Denmark.
Was it worth the amount of lives lost?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #398 on: August 12, 2020, 12:38:01 PM »
Even if you go with the one that favors Sweden it only puts then slightly ahead of Denmark.
Was it worth the amount of lives lost?
To be fair, there are other aspects to consider besides economics and deaths.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #399 on: August 12, 2020, 12:51:26 PM »
Okay, so now that we have different places giving conflicting conclusions, which one is correct? Are they both based on pre-concieved notions and biases? One of them? How do we iron this out? Anecdotally I am seeing here that the people pushing either side of this fit in perfectly with their preconcieved notions. That doesn't make it true.
I think where going to have to wait a while to see anything conclusive but the data is certainly intriguing.