Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 15058 times)

Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #45 on: April 22, 2020, 12:23:45 PM »
All evidence points to a very high rate of immunity.
Source?
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Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #46 on: April 22, 2020, 12:25:27 PM »
Source for SK study as anything China related is useless.
This is an article that quotes both studies, but itís fake news CNN so make sure to click through to the sources
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #47 on: April 22, 2020, 12:28:53 PM »
Where are your getting that number from? This virus has the potential to kill more per day people than every other cause of death combined, as it has already been doing in several places that were slow and hit hard. Thatís a 100% increase, certainly not .01 or anything minuscule.

Iím getting that number from your post. The .01% difference between Sweden and Denmark is what is currently demonstrable. Everything else is speculation as far as Sweden being correct or incorrect in their course of action.  Speaking of apples to apples, comparing the daily death rate of Covid to the daily death rate from other causes is misleading, since the covid number is limited by the maximum number of people that can get infected (anywhere from 50% to 90% of the population before herd immunity is likely to kick in.)  that number stays the same whether it takes 20 days or 300 days to maximum spread . Contrast that with the economic and other impact mentioned above which will be felt over the course of several months to perhaps several years depending on the length of the recovery.  That total mortality impact number would be the apples to apples comparison, not the daily rate.

What those numbers actually turn out to be going forward is anybodyís guess. If the California study  that shows actual asymptomatic infection rates are 50 to 85 times the official numbers is correct, then the mortality rate is far lower then the official tally would indicate, and the  numbers in Sweden should end up reflecting that. If the mortality rate is actually on the high end then that would be the number to work off of. Thereís no way to know that yet, and the contrast between Sweden and Denmark so far does not provide the answer.

Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #48 on: April 22, 2020, 12:31:40 PM »
All evidence points to a very high rate of immunity.
Flu mutates very often, so far the evidence points to COVID-19 not mutating too often.
Ok, here you go
uh oh

https://www.jpost.com/HEALTH-SCIENCE/Coronavirus-has-mutated-into-at-least-30-different-strains-new-study-finds-625333
3 of my family members where tested positive on March 17. They were retested yesterday April 20. 2/3 came back positive.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #49 on: April 22, 2020, 12:33:15 PM »
This is an article that quotes both studies, but itís fake news CNN so make sure to click through to the sources
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/17/health/south-korea-coronavirus-retesting-positive-intl-hnk/index.html
163 retesting positive does equate to what you said: "In fact, some studies (China, S Korea) have indicated that there is a fairly high rate of reinfection"

That is a low rate that can easily be explained by false negative/positive tests.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline grodnoking

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #50 on: April 22, 2020, 12:35:36 PM »
Ok, here you go
If the family member who tested negative tests positive in the future it'll be a proof. Right now it just means 14 days of quarantine after you dont have symptoms (which was the longest people where saying originally) is not long enough.
I'm not who you think I am.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #52 on: April 22, 2020, 12:37:43 PM »
This: Giving people the illness versus the vaccine would render herd immunity pointless, as everyone would get exposed to the full risks of each illness we're trying to prevent.

Herd immunity is accomplished by both those infected and vaccination. How long an infected person is immune is an assumption at this point.
Being exposed to the virus is different risk on so many different levels. Age, sex, race, health and so on.

Versus, not in conjunction with. Considering there is no vaccine, you're just exposing everyone to get a chance at herd immunity. If someone suggested doing that with smallpox, polio, or measles, we'd be appalled.
Please wear a mask.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #53 on: April 22, 2020, 12:40:38 PM »
If the family member who tested negative tests positive in the future it'll be a proof. Right now it just means 14 days of quarantine after you dont have symptoms (which was the longest people where saying originally) is not long enough.
According to Mt Sinai they assume you're no longer contagious 7 days after symptoms and you can go out but be cautious.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #54 on: April 22, 2020, 12:41:56 PM »
Iím getting that number from your post. The .01% difference between Sweden and Denmark is what is currently demonstrable. Everything else is speculation as far as Sweden being correct or incorrect in their course of action.  Speaking of apples to apples, comparing the daily death rate of Covid to the daily death rate from other causes is misleading, since the covid number is limited by the maximum number of people that can get infected (anywhere from 50% to 90% of the population before herd immunity is likely to kick in.)  that number stays the same whether it takes 20 days or 300 days to maximum spread . Contrast that with the economic and other impact mentioned above which will be felt over the course of several months to perhaps several years depending on the length of the recovery.  That total mortality impact number would be the apples to apples comparison, not the daily rate.

What those numbers actually turn out to be going forward is anybodyís guess. If the California study  that shows actual asymptomatic infection rates are 50 to 85 times the official numbers is correct, then the mortality rate is far lower then the official tally would indicate, and the  numbers in Sweden should end up reflecting that. If the mortality rate is actually on the high end then that would be the number to work off of. Thereís no way to know that yet, and the contrast between Sweden and Denmark so far does not provide the answer.
1- Where is there a .01% difference? In which category?

2- The study actually showed between a 28-55x increase, and serious concerns have been raised about the study, considering people with symptoms were much more likely to want to get tested and therefore respond to Facebook ads.Wasnít a randomly conducted trial at all. Random is walking up to people on the street.

Youíre also discounting the fact that all official numbers of mortality rates do take into consideration that the majority of people positive have not been tested, they donít use positives/deaths as the n/d or we would be looking at reported mortality rates of 7% worldwide

3- Again, we donít have the benefit of hindsight. We have the benefit of empirical data driven choices. What if in hindsight it turned out (or actually turns out) to be more deadly? Thereís no reason it couldnít/canít turn out that way, as many pandemics in the past have. Itís reckless and irrational to bet a massive amount of lives on a poorly grounded theory.
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Offline grodnoking

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #55 on: April 22, 2020, 12:42:58 PM »
According to Mt Sinai they assume you're no longer contagious 7 days after symptoms and you can go out but be cautious.
So how do you test positive if you are not contagious?
I'm not who you think I am.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #56 on: April 22, 2020, 12:43:33 PM »
Versus, not in conjunction with. Considering there is no vaccine, you're just exposing everyone to get a chance at herd immunity. If someone suggested doing that with smallpox, polio, or measles, we'd be appalled.
None of these affect older people and leave young people for the most part unscathed.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #57 on: April 22, 2020, 12:45:03 PM »
Versus, not in conjunction with. Considering there is no vaccine, you're just exposing everyone to get a chance at herd immunity. If someone suggested doing that with smallpox, polio, or measles, we'd be appalled.
Lets assume we never get vaccine or it takes 5+ years. Now what are your options? You can't keep the country shutdown.
How many years did vaccines take to develop for the three you mentioned?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #58 on: April 22, 2020, 12:45:53 PM »
So how do you test positive if you are not contagious?
The virus may be dead
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #59 on: April 22, 2020, 12:47:20 PM »
None of these affect older people and leave young people for the most part unscathed.

Which brings us to this topic

https://forums.dansdeals.com/index.php?topic=115812.0
Just because things turned out a certain way doesn't mean you were right.