Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 70437 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #520 on: October 30, 2020, 09:35:08 AM »
My understanding from those involved in Lakewood is that the main difference between now and the first wave is the knowledge of how to treat and testing

Again:
A lockdown wasn't warranted here. It may have kept some people from getting infected, possibly kept a few people from being hospitalized, but the benefits were not huge. This was a localized outbreak in pretty insular communities with significant amounts of people with antibodies. Precautions were warranted, to try to lessen the spread, and because we don't (didn't, and still don't) how long antibodies hang around for, but a lockdown wasn't the appropriate response to the situation. That doesn't mean it won't be appropriate in other situations.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #521 on: October 30, 2020, 10:09:33 AM »
My understanding from those involved in Lakewood is that the main difference between now and the first wave is the knowledge of how to treat and testing

But how does knowing how to treat bring down the numbers? Its great that the treatment has become so much better with many more people recovering (and very few or hopefully none dying), but that happens after one already tests positive.

Increased testing brings the rate down if you hopefully get enough neg to counteract pos, so that I can understand how it brings the numbers down.

Offline aygart

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #522 on: October 30, 2020, 10:22:37 AM »
But how does knowing how to treat bring down the numbers? Its great that the treatment has become so much better with many more people recovering (and very few or hopefully none dying), but that happens after one already tests positive.

Increased testing brings the rate down if you hopefully get enough neg to counteract pos, so that I can understand how it brings the numbers down.
Exactly my point! It does not bring down how many are infected but rather the results of it. Increased testing doesn't bring down positivity rate but does stop the spread by having people with mild symptoms or less quarantined instead of spreading it around.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #523 on: October 30, 2020, 10:35:07 AM »
Exactly my point! It does not bring down how many are infected but rather the results of it. Increased testing doesn't bring down positivity rate but does stop the spread by having people with mild symptoms or less quarantined instead of spreading it around.

So by continuing this thought process, you can see a value in lockdowns in specific situations. For example, when your cases exceed testing capacity. FL had between 10-15k cases a day for 2 weeks, and testing was maxed for almost a month. Locking down when you reach capacity helps keep people at home and prevents spread. By using limited lockdowns, you also help combat lockdown fatigue and increase compliance. A 2 week lockdown should accomplish the goal.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #524 on: October 30, 2020, 10:38:48 AM »
So by continuing this thought process, you can see a value in lockdowns in specific situations. For example, when your cases exceed testing capacity. FL had between 10-15k cases a day for 2 weeks, and testing was maxed for almost a month. Locking down when you reach capacity helps keep people at home and events spread. By using limited lockdowns, you also help combat lockdown fatigue and increase compliance. A 2 week lockdown should accomplish the goal.
There can be rare places for some very limited restrictions. I don't see that the broad stroked lockdowns would be that needed at this point in the game.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #525 on: October 30, 2020, 10:41:42 AM »
There can be rare places for some very limited restrictions. I don't see that the broad stroked lockdowns would be that needed at this point in the game.

Right now, the need may not be there, but as the second wave picks up, there may be more instances where it is warranted.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #526 on: October 30, 2020, 12:50:49 PM »
The million dollar question is if Cuomo's aggressive policies will spare NY from the second wave that's ravaging Italy/France/UK/Germany/Sweden/Blegium/NL.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #527 on: October 30, 2020, 01:56:42 PM »
The million dollar question is if Cuomo's aggressive policies will spare NY from the second wave that's ravaging Italy/France/UK/Germany/Sweden/Blegium/NL.

Even if NY is spared, it won't be because of his aggressive policies.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #528 on: October 30, 2020, 02:10:26 PM »
Even if NY is spared, it won't be because of his aggressive policies.

That's like Dems deciding Trump won't leave the White House if he loses. See how things play out before assigning praise or blame.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #529 on: October 30, 2020, 02:58:25 PM »
That's like Dems deciding Trump won't leave the White House if he loses. See how things play out before assigning praise or blame.

He better not lose  ;).

All kidding and politics aside, Cuomo who has patted himself on the back for the great job he supposedly did in beating the virus, we also know, is responsible for all those nursing home deaths which he blames on being an act of G-d. Well, he can't have it both ways. If that was an act of G-d then so was the reduction in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

On that premise, I'm saying it will be an act of G-d again if NY is spared and not because of anything Cuomo does or doesn't do.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #530 on: October 30, 2020, 03:05:51 PM »
He better not lose  ;).

All kidding and politics aside, Cuomo who has patted himself on the back for the great job he supposedly did in beating the virus, we also know, is responsible for all those nursing home deaths which he blames on being an act of G-d. Well, he can't have it both ways. If that was an act of G-d then so was the reduction in cases, hospitalizations, and deaths.

On that premise, I'm saying it will be an act of G-d again if NY is spared and not because of anything Cuomo does or doesn't do.

You can't judge him on decisions he hasn't made yet based on prior bad acts. They are completely unrelated. He may continue to make bad decisions. You can judge him for those after they happen.
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Offline iluv2travel

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #531 on: October 30, 2020, 03:17:22 PM »
You can't judge him on decisions he hasn't made yet based on prior bad acts. They are completely unrelated. He may continue to make bad decisions. You can judge him for those after they happen.

This isn't about judging him. I've already obviously passed judgment on the guy and unless he makes a 180 degree turn in his behavior which I very highly doubt, that's not changing so fast (because a Czar doesn't change his behavior so fast).

Either way, we shall wait and see. G-d willing we won't see any terrible spike and that there should be a vaccine that works very soon.

We totally went off track here...
« Last Edit: October 30, 2020, 03:20:38 PM by iluv2travel »

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #532 on: October 31, 2020, 08:25:13 PM »
Just want to point out another thing before we really deal with the precautions/results of the second wave on a broad scale: unless countries that did not get impacted heavily in the first wave are hit much more severely in the second wave as a direct result, they have already succeeded in handling the first wave effectively. That chapter in the book has already been written.

If a country prevents an infiltration of COVID and is subsequently blindsided by Ebola would you say there was no point in saving the first batch of lives? The only way that analogy can be upended is if the countries with less prior spread become hit harder than those which don’t. Doesn’t seem to be the case when you look at the countries currently being hit hard (Belgium, Spain, France, UK, Italy, etc.)

There is much we have learned in how to treat the virus and how it spreads, as well as testing infrastructure and preventative knowledge. Countries will need to decide on policy in each country accordingly, depending on severity and scope of internal spread. But that does not change the facts: A first wave of infection spread through the world. Some countries (like Denmark) managed to control the spread and lost far fewer lives than comparable countries (say, Sweden). What happens now is a new chapter, with far more information available to aid decision making.

The first wave is over. We have the results from Sweden and Denmark. Who was right?
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #533 on: October 31, 2020, 09:09:43 PM »
Just want to point out another thing before we really deal with the precautions/results of the second wave on a broad scale: unless countries that did not get impacted heavily in the first wave are hit much more severely in the second wave as a direct result, they have already succeeded in handling the first wave effectively. That chapter in the book has already been written.

If a country prevents an infiltration of COVID and is subsequently blindsided by Ebola would you say there was no point in saving the first batch of lives? The only way that analogy can be upended is if the countries with less prior spread become hit harder than those which don’t. Doesn’t seem to be the case when you look at the countries currently being hit hard (Belgium, Spain, France, UK, Italy, etc.)

There is much we have learned in how to treat the virus and how it spreads, as well as testing infrastructure and preventative knowledge. Countries will need to decide on policy in each country accordingly, depending on severity and scope of internal spread. But that does not change the facts: A first wave of infection spread through the world. Some countries (like Denmark) managed to control the spread and lost far fewer lives than comparable countries (say, Sweden). What happens now is a new chapter, with far more information available to aid decision making.

The first wave is over. We have the results from Sweden and Denmark. Who was right?
Are you serious? The whole Sweden strategy was to prevent a second wave.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #534 on: October 31, 2020, 09:11:23 PM »
No point arguing. Sweden is having a second wave already.
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #535 on: October 31, 2020, 09:11:50 PM »
Are you serious? The whole Sweden strategy was to prevent a second wave.
Though for the record that's not true. Tegnell says there isn't herd immunity and he wasn't pursuing it.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #536 on: October 31, 2020, 09:59:12 PM »
Are you serious? The whole Sweden strategy was to prevent a second wave.
Source? IIRC it was to limit the amount of government intervention and economic cost.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #537 on: November 01, 2020, 03:53:24 PM »
Are you serious? The whole Sweden strategy was to prevent a second wave.
Well then..

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #538 on: November 01, 2020, 04:13:58 PM »
״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים

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״וזה כלל גדול: שישנא אדם כל דבר שקר. וכל מה שיוסיף שנאה לדרכי השקר – יוסיף אהבה לתורה.״ - אורחות צדיקים