Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison

[Lurker]

So what metric would you prefer using?

It's called The Protractor and Compass Method. You pick a point and then move the goalposts as needed, until you're back where you started. Rinse and repeat as necessary.

[S209]

It's been mentioned multiple times, there are major differences in the way they treat patients. A system that leaves the elderly to die will have more deaths.

1- That wasn’t mentioned when the theory was predicted by any who disagreed, so I will stick to that not being considered a relevant variable for the purpose of this theory. There were no relevant differences brought up at the time.
2- Nobody has brought any evidence of Sweden treating patients differently than Denmark, only claims that COVID patients weren’t treated properly when hospitals were overwhelmed *post facto*. What is your source that their protocols differ? Denmark has never reached the state of hospitals being overwhelmed.

[aygart]

I'm calling out the comparison with "only 1 known relevant variable".

There are so many metrics used here in this thread. Cases, deaths, hospitalizations. Take your pick off the menu. they all show the same thing.

[S209]

There are so many metrics used here in this thread. Cases, deaths, hospitalizations. Take your pick off the menu. they all show the same thing.

Positivity rate, transmission rate, excess deaths.. keep going

[yzj]

Here is my previous rebuttal to that article

Your chart simply shows excess mortality spiking during the heart of the pandemic and dipping into negative territory much of the rest of the year. If excess mortality ends up being minimal for the year (and I don’t know that this is how it will turn out but am reserving judgement) then it doesn’t matter which chart you compare it to - Norway, China or any other country. If excess mortality for the year is low then the cost in mortality is exactly that number. Again, show me the numbers 18 months from now and we can talk.

[yzj]

If you go long enough then ANYTHING causes ZERO excess deaths since EVERYONE will eventually die anyhow.

Of course, but if excess mortality is close to baseline over 18 months, that does have relevance since it means that your lockdown with all its economic and human suffering basically succeeded in prolonging the lives of mostly dying and elderly dementia patients by an average of a couple of months. (Since it’s a rolling number- each week you have patients that were destined to die but died of covid instead.)I don’t know that that is an acceptable trade off.

Nobody knows if the mortality deficit will continue until it reaches that point which is why we should be reserving judgement.

[S209]

Your chart simply shows excess mortality spiking during the heart of the pandemic and dipping into negative territory much of the rest of the year.

No, my chart shows that for Sweden vs. Norway compared to the last 5 years *both* are in negative territory for most of the year (including the months before the pandemic) with a small short spike in Norway and a corresponding massive extended spike in Sweden during the heart of the pandemic.

Sweden was negative before the spike, but since then, they’ve been just about at the baseline or positive with a possible dip back to negative for the last month or two (in which we don’t have complete data yet).

ETA: lo and behold, the dip did not remain there.

[S209]

Sweden never claimed that they would have less deaths and infections on the front end. They were looking for herd immunity, which they seem to be getting as per https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

While this may be true, it's intellectually dishonest. The only way for the swedish model to be better is for it to look worse in the beginning.

{citation needed}

It is actually seemingly more likely that more of the population is immune then we realize then it is that there as no immunity as you claim.

Are you serious? The whole Sweden strategy was to prevent a second wave.

Can we all agree to shelve this particular argument, and move on to the next?




PS: This doesn’t factor in that Denmark is conducting far more tests per day than Sweden

[PlatinumGuy]

Sweden deaths are way up too.

[S209]

Sweden deaths are way up too.

But of course. Swedish hospitals murder old people with COVID. This has nothing to do with their infection rate.

[aygart]

Can we all agree to shelve this particular argument, and move on to the next?




PS: This doesn’t factor in that Denmark is conducting far more tests per day than Sweden

That doesn't change anything from their argument. The numbers then truly were non-indicative. The numbers now seem to show pretty clearly that it didn't work, but even now the book is not complete.

[yzj]

Sweden deaths are way up too.

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Patience......

[S209]

That doesn't change anything from their argument. The numbers then truly were non-indicative. The numbers now seem to show pretty clearly that it didn't work, but even now the book is not complete.

The argument was that increased infection early on will prevent increased infection at a later date. But it didn’t. What’s non-indicative?

Patience......

What exactly are we waiting for? The data is already in. Their prior policy did not prevent large scale spread in a second wave. What do you think is going to change?

Remember, if more people die in Sweden this wave as well you’re going to say it was the hospitals that killed them..

[aygart]

The argument was that increased infection early on MAY prevent increased infection at a later date.

FTFY

Correct that it didn't, but that was not known at the time. I agree the Swedish model seems to have been foolhardy, but then was certainly too early to know for certain

[S209]

FTFY

Correct that it didn't, but that was not known at the time. I agree the Swedish model seems to have been foolhardy, but then was certainly too early to know for certain

As I noted in my OP, all the evidence at the time pointed one way. It’s impossible to know the future but you can only be blamed for making decisions contrary to the evidence available at the time.

[PlatinumGuy]

FTFY

Correct that it didn't, but that was not known at the time. I agree the Swedish model seems to have been foolhardy, but then was certainly too early to know for certain

There were serosurveys that showed for certain Sweden had no meaningful levels of immunity.

[yzj]

There were serosurveys that showed for certain Sweden had no meaningful levels of immunity.

Yeah but those surveys undermined the whole premise of the lockdown. They claimed that serology results from Sweden and Denmark were similar indicating that Sweden didn’t have significantly more people who had achieved immunity by contracting the virus than Denmark which locked down. But if that were the case it would demonstrate that Denmark’s lockdown was worthless since the same percent of the population as Sweden contracted it anyway and Denmark just got lucky. Obviously something flawed over there.

[PlatinumGuy]

They claimed that serology results from Sweden and Denmark were similar indicating

Source? That's not true as far as I know

[S209]

Yeah but those surveys undermined the whole premise of the lockdown. They claimed that serology results from Sweden and Denmark were similar indicating that Sweden didn’t have significantly more people who had achieved immunity by contracting the virus than Denmark which locked down. But if that were the case it would demonstrate that Denmark’s lockdown was worthless since the same percent of the population as Sweden contracted it anyway and Denmark just got lucky. Obviously something flawed over there.

-1

They said that serology results from Sweden and places like Spain and Italy (who were hit earlier and hard) were similar, not Denmark.

[yzj]

-1

They said that serology results from Sweden and places like Spain and Italy (who were hit earlier and hard) were similar, not Denmark.

That’s true. I see it was mentioned earlier in the thread. They compared to London using the same contradictory reasoning as well
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-antibody-levels-same-in-stockholm-and-london-study-shows-2020-8%3famp