Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 15052 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #60 on: April 22, 2020, 12:48:20 PM »
So how do you test positive if you are not contagious?
Is there any evidence of those who retest positive are contagious?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #61 on: April 22, 2020, 12:48:23 PM »
Lets assume we never get vaccine or it takes 5+ years. Now what are your options? You can't keep the country shutdown.
How many years did vaccines take to develop for the three you mentioned?
Assuming we have great testing capacity we aggressively work to ensure no new outbreaks start by quashing any instantly. Also, increased time means weíll have far better treatments and prophylactic protocols available thus lowering the mortality rate significantly
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #62 on: April 22, 2020, 12:49:09 PM »
Is there any evidence of those who retest positive are contagious?
No, there is not. Just as there no evidence that they are not. So in the lack of evidence.. BE CAUTIOUS
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #63 on: April 22, 2020, 12:49:16 PM »
163 retesting positive does equate to what you said: "In fact, some studies (China, S Korea) have indicated that there is a fairly high rate of reinfection"

That is a low rate that can easily be explained by false negative/positive tests.
and unless there is a negative test (which may be a false negative) between the 2 positives there is no evidence that it's not the same infection as the first test
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #64 on: April 22, 2020, 12:50:02 PM »
Assuming we have great testing capacity...
An assumption that has been proven wrong so far.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #65 on: April 22, 2020, 12:50:29 PM »
An assumption that has been proven wrong so far.
You asked about 5 years out. You think thatís the same as 5 weeks in?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #66 on: April 22, 2020, 12:50:57 PM »
and unless there is a negative test (which may be a false negative) between the 2 positives there is no evidence that it's not the same infection as the first test
IIRC All of the South Korea subjects had 2 false negatives first
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #67 on: April 22, 2020, 12:52:24 PM »
You asked about 5 years out. You think thatís the same as 5 weeks in?
No, so keep the shutdown until we get the required testing?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #68 on: April 22, 2020, 12:56:00 PM »
Lets assume we never get vaccine or it takes 5+ years. Now what are your options? You can't keep the country shutdown.
How many years did vaccines take to develop for the three you mentioned?

I can't predict the future. What I know is that this virus is fairly new, and the learning curve is steepest in the beginning. I want to give science a chance before throwing in the towel and jumping headfirst into a full blown global pandemic of historical proportions.
Please wear a mask.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #69 on: April 22, 2020, 12:58:23 PM »
Is there any evidence of those who retest positive are contagious?
I dont know. But they are not letting my mother back to work even though shes 3 weeks non symptomatic.
I'm not who you think I am.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #70 on: April 22, 2020, 01:06:21 PM »
I can't predict the future. What I know is that this virus is fairly new, and the learning curve is steepest in the beginning. I want to give science a chance before throwing in the towel and jumping headfirst into a full blown global pandemic of historical proportions.
The point is you have the safe approach and a risky approach(D vs S). At this point we have to idea if the safe approach really is the safe approach.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #71 on: April 22, 2020, 01:06:55 PM »
Lets assume we never get vaccine or it takes 5+ years. Now what are your options? You can't keep the country shutdown.
How many years did vaccines take to develop for the three you mentioned?
Furthermore, letís discuss more hypotheticals if we never get a vaccine..

Letís say immunity works amazing for 2 full years (4x as long as the average flu shot). Then it wears off (again, absolutely no evidence suggesting it wonít). Then what? We go for the ďherd immunityĒ thing again and kill off another few million people in horrifying fashion? Rinse and repeat as needed? What a way to repair our health care finances
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #72 on: April 22, 2020, 01:09:05 PM »
The point is you have the safe approach and a risky approach(D vs S). At this point we have to idea if the safe approach really is the safe approach.
But doesnít all data that we have now point to that? Isnít that how we decide what path we take? Iím pretty sure evidence-based reasoning is widely accepted among modern day decision makers.

Except maybe Trump ;)
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #73 on: April 22, 2020, 01:14:26 PM »
But doesnít all data that we have now point to that? Isnít that how we decide what path we take? Iím pretty sure evidence-based reasoning is widely accepted among modern day decision makers.

Except maybe Trump ;)
The safe approach is shutdown and all evidence is that it works. We can't do that much longer without doing more harm than good.
My parents lived through the great depression. How long before we are headed there again?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #74 on: April 22, 2020, 01:15:49 PM »
The point is you have the safe approach and a risky approach(D vs S). At this point we have to idea if the safe approach really is the safe approach.

We know the safe approach is saving lives. At what cost, and is that cost worth it, short term and long term... definitely factors that need to be considered. But to say that it's not really the safer approach is plain wrong.

My argument isn't that there are no virtues or values to the riskier approach. I have an uneducated opinion, and I'm not belittling those who think the risks are worth it. My issue is with the fallacy that the herd immunity theory should come into play at this point, with zero data pointing to it's relevance to this virus. You think the deaths are worth it? You think ignoring long term effects are worth it? I disagree, but that's just a difference in opinion. You want to argue we should stop isolating in the name of herd immunity? Sorry, that gets under my skin.
Please wear a mask.