Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 15055 times)

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #75 on: April 22, 2020, 01:20:01 PM »
1- Where is there a .01% difference? In which category?

2- The study actually showed between a 28-55x increase, and serious concerns have been raised about the study, considering people with symptoms were much more likely to want to get tested and therefore respond to Facebook ads.Wasnít a randomly conducted trial at all. Random is walking up to people on the street.

Youíre also discounting the fact that all official numbers of mortality rates do take into consideration that the majority of people positive have not been tested, they donít use positives/deaths as the n/d or we would be looking at reported mortality rates of 7% worldwide

3- Again, we donít have the benefit of hindsight. We have the benefit of empirical data driven choices. What if in hindsight it turned out (or actually turns out) to be more deadly? Thereís no reason it couldnít/canít turn out that way, as many pandemics in the past have. Itís reckless and irrational to bet a massive amount of lives on a poorly grounded theory.

Denmark: 64 per million
Sweden: 175 per million

Approx .01% difference in mortality rate


Once we are talking theoretical, thereís  also no reason that it couldnít/ canít turn out the the virus spreads to everyone who socially distanced in seasonal waves years before any vaccine is available (Roche for example says a vaccine in unlikely before the end of 2021 at the earliest)resulting mortality rate MAY turn out to be cumulatively not much different than that of the areas that donít have strict social distancing. This is especially so since one of the major fears of the disease progression has not materialized at least in Sweden or the US. A major selling point for flattening the curve was hospitals running out of ventilators etc in a spike, resulting in a jump in mortality. The shortage has consistently been overhyped. The hospital ship sat largely empty and there are adequate ventilators.

(Actually a ventilator shortage might have been a good thing since up to 80% of those on ventilators for covid have been dying, to the point that some doctors think the ventilators are killing covid patients.)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4%3famp

Unfortunately there is so little we know at this point.


« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 01:29:34 PM by Yard sale »

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #76 on: April 22, 2020, 01:21:57 PM »
We know the safe approach is saving lives. At what cost, and is that cost worth it, short term and long term... definitely factors that need to be considered. But to say that it's not really the safer approach is plain wrong.

My argument isn't that there are no virtues or values to the riskier approach. I have an uneducated opinion, and I'm not belittling those who think the risks are worth it. My issue is with the fallacy that the herd immunity theory should come into play at this point, with zero data pointing to it's relevance to this virus. You think the deaths are worth it? You think ignoring long term effects are worth it? I disagree, but that's just a difference in opinion. You want to argue we should stop isolating in the name of herd immunity? Sorry, that gets under my skin.
The flip side is we isolate until we get a vaccine. Good luck with that one.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #77 on: April 22, 2020, 01:29:08 PM »
The flip side is we isolate until we get a vaccine. Good luck with that one.

I think there's a middle ground. Play safe for the short term. Give businesses some time to figure out how to function while creating the safest environment for their employees and customers. Give science a chance to either get a vaccine, or at least better medical responses for those who do get sick. Give hospitals a chance to gear up in the best way possible. Let capitalism do it's thing in coming up with new innovations and solutions for a covid-active and post-covid world.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #78 on: April 22, 2020, 01:32:39 PM »
Denmark: 64 per million
Sweden: 175 per million

Approx .01% difference in mortality rate

Not great with statistics, but I'm seeing an individual in Sweden is almost 3 times more likely to die. That's a pretty big deal to me...
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #79 on: April 22, 2020, 01:33:38 PM »
I think there's a middle ground. Play safe for the short term. Give businesses some time to figure out how to function while creating the safest environment for their employees and customers. Give science a chance to either get a vaccine, or at least better medical responses for those who do get sick. Give hospitals a chance to gear up in the best way possible. Let capitalism do it's thing in coming up with new innovations and solutions for a covid-active and post-covid world.
To me this is drip drip drip. I think I said this a few times before.  :)
How do we safely fly, sporting events, dining out or a hundred other things?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #80 on: April 22, 2020, 01:39:55 PM »
To me this is drip drip drip. I think I said this a few times before.  :)
How do we safely fly, sporting events, dining out or a hundred other things?

I don't have the answer to your question. I also don't think I need it today. I'm ok with getting it in a little while. What I look at is progress we've actually made. In January, the medical establishment was still of the opinion that this virus wasn't transmitted human-to-human. After that came the discovery that it was airborne. This was followed by experimental drugs, which worked to varying degrees, as well as preventative measures which slowed the rate of infection. Progress is being made, even if it's not as fast as we'd like. I'm not sure we're at the panic point yet, where we abandon life-saving measures in an effort to "get back to normal."
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #81 on: April 22, 2020, 01:45:03 PM »
Not great with statistics, but I'm seeing an individual in Sweden is almost 3 times more likely to die. That's a pretty big deal to me...

Three times a minuscule number is still minuscule. Someone who is depressed is over 3 times more likely to die then others but it is still a minuscule number.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #82 on: April 22, 2020, 01:46:01 PM »
Three times a minuscule number is still minuscule. Someone who is depressed is over 3 times more likely to die then others but it is still a minuscule number.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #83 on: April 22, 2020, 01:49:01 PM »
Three times a minuscule number is still minuscule. Someone who is depressed is over 3 times more likely to die then others but it is still a minuscule number.

Fair
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #84 on: April 22, 2020, 01:49:04 PM »
The flip side is we isolate until we get a vaccine. Good luck with that one.
That is a straw man, and you know it
Assuming we have great testing capacity we aggressively work to ensure no new outbreaks start by quashing any instantly. Also, increased time means weíll have far better treatments and prophylactic protocols available thus lowering the mortality rate significantly
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #85 on: April 22, 2020, 01:55:05 PM »
That is a straw man, and you know it
If a fact is a straw man then so be it.
Testing has been a disaster. This is drip drip drip.
Do see any breakthroughs on the horizon before the end of the year? You can't keep the country shutdown until then.
What happens if the second wave is worse than the first?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #86 on: April 22, 2020, 02:14:07 PM »
The issue I see here is some people don't realize that every day that the country is shut down has serious repercussions on peoples lives and the economy. Anyone saying let's just wait it out for a few more months just to be safe is seriously underestimating the repercussions.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #87 on: April 22, 2020, 02:16:12 PM »
The issue I see here is some people don't realize that every day that the country is shut down has serious repercussions on peoples lives and the economy. Anyone saying let's just wait it out for a few more months just to be safe is seriously underestimating the repercussions.
I agree. So many factors to consider when making such a decision. I am waiting to see how Israels opening up works out. Maybe we can follow something similar here once the numbers go down.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #88 on: April 22, 2020, 02:19:24 PM »
The issue I see here is some people don't realize that every day that the country is shut down has serious repercussions on peoples lives and the economy. Anyone saying let's just wait it out for a few more months just to be safe is seriously underestimating the repercussions.
I was all for a national shutdown. The issue now is this drip drip drip.
The problem also is we see no real deaths from a national shutdown so far. What if the experts started predicting how many lives will be lost for each month of a shutdown. How about how many lives will be ruined and so on? Would that change some minds? 
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #89 on: April 22, 2020, 02:23:18 PM »
I was all for a national shutdown. The issue now is this drip drip drip.
The problem also is we see no real deaths from a national shutdown so far. What if the experts started predicting how many lives will be lost for each month of a shutdown. How about how many lives will be ruined and so on? Would that change some minds? 
Exactly
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