Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 70278 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #60 on: April 22, 2020, 12:48:20 PM »
So how do you test positive if you are not contagious?
Is there any evidence of those who retest positive are contagious?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #61 on: April 22, 2020, 12:48:23 PM »
Lets assume we never get vaccine or it takes 5+ years. Now what are your options? You can't keep the country shutdown.
How many years did vaccines take to develop for the three you mentioned?
Assuming we have great testing capacity we aggressively work to ensure no new outbreaks start by quashing any instantly. Also, increased time means we’ll have far better treatments and prophylactic protocols available thus lowering the mortality rate significantly
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Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #62 on: April 22, 2020, 12:49:09 PM »
Is there any evidence of those who retest positive are contagious?
No, there is not. Just as there no evidence that they are not. So in the lack of evidence.. BE CAUTIOUS
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #63 on: April 22, 2020, 12:49:16 PM »
163 retesting positive does equate to what you said: "In fact, some studies (China, S Korea) have indicated that there is a fairly high rate of reinfection"

That is a low rate that can easily be explained by false negative/positive tests.
and unless there is a negative test (which may be a false negative) between the 2 positives there is no evidence that it's not the same infection as the first test
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #64 on: April 22, 2020, 12:50:02 PM »
Assuming we have great testing capacity...
An assumption that has been proven wrong so far.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #65 on: April 22, 2020, 12:50:29 PM »
An assumption that has been proven wrong so far.
You asked about 5 years out. You think that’s the same as 5 weeks in?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #66 on: April 22, 2020, 12:50:57 PM »
and unless there is a negative test (which may be a false negative) between the 2 positives there is no evidence that it's not the same infection as the first test
IIRC All of the South Korea subjects had 2 false negatives first
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #67 on: April 22, 2020, 12:52:24 PM »
You asked about 5 years out. You think that’s the same as 5 weeks in?
No, so keep the shutdown until we get the required testing?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #68 on: April 22, 2020, 12:56:00 PM »
Lets assume we never get vaccine or it takes 5+ years. Now what are your options? You can't keep the country shutdown.
How many years did vaccines take to develop for the three you mentioned?

I can't predict the future. What I know is that this virus is fairly new, and the learning curve is steepest in the beginning. I want to give science a chance before throwing in the towel and jumping headfirst into a full blown global pandemic of historical proportions.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #69 on: April 22, 2020, 12:58:23 PM »
Is there any evidence of those who retest positive are contagious?
I dont know. But they are not letting my mother back to work even though shes 3 weeks non symptomatic.
I'm not who you think I am.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #70 on: April 22, 2020, 01:06:21 PM »
I can't predict the future. What I know is that this virus is fairly new, and the learning curve is steepest in the beginning. I want to give science a chance before throwing in the towel and jumping headfirst into a full blown global pandemic of historical proportions.
The point is you have the safe approach and a risky approach(D vs S). At this point we have to idea if the safe approach really is the safe approach.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #71 on: April 22, 2020, 01:06:55 PM »
Lets assume we never get vaccine or it takes 5+ years. Now what are your options? You can't keep the country shutdown.
How many years did vaccines take to develop for the three you mentioned?
Furthermore, let’s discuss more hypotheticals if we never get a vaccine..

Let’s say immunity works amazing for 2 full years (4x as long as the average flu shot). Then it wears off (again, absolutely no evidence suggesting it won’t). Then what? We go for the “herd immunity” thing again and kill off another few million people in horrifying fashion? Rinse and repeat as needed? What a way to repair our health care finances
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #72 on: April 22, 2020, 01:09:05 PM »
The point is you have the safe approach and a risky approach(D vs S). At this point we have to idea if the safe approach really is the safe approach.
But doesn’t all data that we have now point to that? Isn’t that how we decide what path we take? I’m pretty sure evidence-based reasoning is widely accepted among modern day decision makers.

Except maybe Trump ;)
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #73 on: April 22, 2020, 01:14:26 PM »
But doesn’t all data that we have now point to that? Isn’t that how we decide what path we take? I’m pretty sure evidence-based reasoning is widely accepted among modern day decision makers.

Except maybe Trump ;)
The safe approach is shutdown and all evidence is that it works. We can't do that much longer without doing more harm than good.
My parents lived through the great depression. How long before we are headed there again?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #74 on: April 22, 2020, 01:15:49 PM »
The point is you have the safe approach and a risky approach(D vs S). At this point we have to idea if the safe approach really is the safe approach.

We know the safe approach is saving lives. At what cost, and is that cost worth it, short term and long term... definitely factors that need to be considered. But to say that it's not really the safer approach is plain wrong.

My argument isn't that there are no virtues or values to the riskier approach. I have an uneducated opinion, and I'm not belittling those who think the risks are worth it. My issue is with the fallacy that the herd immunity theory should come into play at this point, with zero data pointing to it's relevance to this virus. You think the deaths are worth it? You think ignoring long term effects are worth it? I disagree, but that's just a difference in opinion. You want to argue we should stop isolating in the name of herd immunity? Sorry, that gets under my skin.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #75 on: April 22, 2020, 01:20:01 PM »
1- Where is there a .01% difference? In which category?

2- The study actually showed between a 28-55x increase, and serious concerns have been raised about the study, considering people with symptoms were much more likely to want to get tested and therefore respond to Facebook ads.Wasn’t a randomly conducted trial at all. Random is walking up to people on the street.

You’re also discounting the fact that all official numbers of mortality rates do take into consideration that the majority of people positive have not been tested, they don’t use positives/deaths as the n/d or we would be looking at reported mortality rates of 7% worldwide

3- Again, we don’t have the benefit of hindsight. We have the benefit of empirical data driven choices. What if in hindsight it turned out (or actually turns out) to be more deadly? There’s no reason it couldn’t/can’t turn out that way, as many pandemics in the past have. It’s reckless and irrational to bet a massive amount of lives on a poorly grounded theory.

Denmark: 64 per million
Sweden: 175 per million

Approx .01% difference in mortality rate


Once we are talking theoretical, there’s  also no reason that it couldn’t/ can’t turn out the the virus spreads to everyone who socially distanced in seasonal waves years before any vaccine is available (Roche for example says a vaccine in unlikely before the end of 2021 at the earliest)resulting mortality rate MAY turn out to be cumulatively not much different than that of the areas that don’t have strict social distancing. This is especially so since one of the major fears of the disease progression has not materialized at least in Sweden or the US. A major selling point for flattening the curve was hospitals running out of ventilators etc in a spike, resulting in a jump in mortality. The shortage has consistently been overhyped. The hospital ship sat largely empty and there are adequate ventilators.

(Actually a ventilator shortage might have been a good thing since up to 80% of those on ventilators for covid have been dying, to the point that some doctors think the ventilators are killing covid patients.)

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-ventilators-some-doctors-try-reduce-use-new-york-death-rate-2020-4%3famp

Unfortunately there is so little we know at this point.


« Last Edit: April 22, 2020, 01:29:34 PM by Yard sale »

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #76 on: April 22, 2020, 01:21:57 PM »
We know the safe approach is saving lives. At what cost, and is that cost worth it, short term and long term... definitely factors that need to be considered. But to say that it's not really the safer approach is plain wrong.

My argument isn't that there are no virtues or values to the riskier approach. I have an uneducated opinion, and I'm not belittling those who think the risks are worth it. My issue is with the fallacy that the herd immunity theory should come into play at this point, with zero data pointing to it's relevance to this virus. You think the deaths are worth it? You think ignoring long term effects are worth it? I disagree, but that's just a difference in opinion. You want to argue we should stop isolating in the name of herd immunity? Sorry, that gets under my skin.
The flip side is we isolate until we get a vaccine. Good luck with that one.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #77 on: April 22, 2020, 01:29:08 PM »
The flip side is we isolate until we get a vaccine. Good luck with that one.

I think there's a middle ground. Play safe for the short term. Give businesses some time to figure out how to function while creating the safest environment for their employees and customers. Give science a chance to either get a vaccine, or at least better medical responses for those who do get sick. Give hospitals a chance to gear up in the best way possible. Let capitalism do it's thing in coming up with new innovations and solutions for a covid-active and post-covid world.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #78 on: April 22, 2020, 01:32:39 PM »
Denmark: 64 per million
Sweden: 175 per million

Approx .01% difference in mortality rate

Not great with statistics, but I'm seeing an individual in Sweden is almost 3 times more likely to die. That's a pretty big deal to me...
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #79 on: April 22, 2020, 01:33:38 PM »
I think there's a middle ground. Play safe for the short term. Give businesses some time to figure out how to function while creating the safest environment for their employees and customers. Give science a chance to either get a vaccine, or at least better medical responses for those who do get sick. Give hospitals a chance to gear up in the best way possible. Let capitalism do it's thing in coming up with new innovations and solutions for a covid-active and post-covid world.
To me this is drip drip drip. I think I said this a few times before.  :)
How do we safely fly, sporting events, dining out or a hundred other things?
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