I don't, but the incentive is there and it is a win win. Predicting low is not.
True, but the numbers out of Italy and other hard hit countries seemed to indicate that hundreds of thousands would die. We can’t know for sure now what would have happened without locking down, and may never, but considering 60K+ will definitely die WITH locking down its reasonable to assume we dramatically lowered the spread and number of deaths.
A million or more deaths was always the highest end of the most dramatic models. They weren’t lent credence by most people in positions of authority (Richie Roberts aside
).The numbers most people were using was hundreds of thousands, and they don’t look so dumb now..
Remember, opponents of lockdowns at the time were telling us it would be no worse than swine flu. In under 8 weeks we’re already close to hitting 6x the number of deaths from a full year of swine flu. One thing is for certain- THOSE models were way off.