Author Topic: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison  (Read 29781 times)

Offline Afrages6

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Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #302 on: May 22, 2020, 10:05:41 AM »
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #303 on: May 22, 2020, 10:10:59 AM »
All youíre showing is that immunity can exist, not that a population has immunity
Iím showing proof as to what I said. NYC has between 20-30 percent infected already. When you factor in the percentage of people that would not be susceptible then you could possibly have 55-70 percent of the population which are immune.

You brought an article from Sweden how they donít have antibodies, the reason is for that is that they assume that the virus would spread rapidly even with social distancing measures in place and large gatherings banned.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #304 on: May 22, 2020, 10:12:59 AM »
Which data has shown you that? There may be other strategies that work as well but where have you seen that early stay at home orders havenít worked?
Which data has shown you that it has worked?
Quote
Not a self evident truth. Stay at home orders early on have had a very dramatic effect on stunting spread, see Sweden vs. other Nordic countries. Still, they are not the way to go long term. Clear guidelines and targeted restrictions will need to be implemented instead.
The Denmark to Sweden comparison is very convenient, but we see local variations in other parts of the world (see Iran vs. it's neighbors, NY/NJ vs. it's neighbors). Might it have to do with stay at home order, yes. But I don't think that's conclusive.
Quote
Thatís for sure, and armed with lots of that knowledge we can be smarter about what strategies we implement in fighting the spread.We still have many questions, but we have a good idea of how this spreads and how to stop it
Maybe yes, maybe no. I'm not convinced.
Quote
Itís not inevitable in and of itself. It seems that if we return to normal than it will come back (as there is no immunity, so no reason it shouldnít return as long as it exists) so our goal should be staying as safe as possible while we get back to ourselves, buying us time to see the trend early next time and in general lowering the R0 number to manageable non-pandemic proportions.
I just don't see human behavior changing enough to make a dent
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Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #305 on: May 22, 2020, 10:13:24 AM »
Iím showing proof as to what I said. NYC has between 20-30 percent infected already. When you factor in the percentage of people that would not be susceptible then you could possibly have 55-70 percent of the population which are immune.

You brought an article from Sweden how they donít have antibodies, the reason is for that is that they assume that the virus would spread rapidly even with social distancing measures in place and large gatherings banned.
The vast majority of the world does not have immunity. Therefore,
It seems that if we return to normal than it will come back (as there is no immunity, so no reason it shouldnít return as long as it exists) so our goal should be staying as safe as possible while we get back to ourselves, buying us time to see the trend early next time and in general lowering the R0 number to manageable non-pandemic proportions.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #306 on: May 22, 2020, 10:14:59 AM »
1918 pandemic, we can agree there were no widespread stay at home orders, yes? We know that the pandemic's first wave naturally came to it's first end. Do we know why? Do we know that it's not the same reason this one is seemingly doing so as well?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #307 on: May 22, 2020, 10:17:50 AM »
Iím showing proof as to what I said. NYC has between 20-30 percent infected already. When you factor in the percentage of people that would not be susceptible then you could possibly have 55-70 percent of the population which are immune.

You brought an article from Sweden how they donít have antibodies, the reason is for that is that they assume that the virus would spread rapidly even with social distancing measures in place and large gatherings banned.

Firstly, the additional 20-50% you claim would not have been susceptible is pure speculation, and completely changes the equation. Second, I'm not sure what immunity means to you. Is it forever, 5 years, 5 months? There's zero data about that.
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Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #308 on: May 22, 2020, 10:22:27 AM »
Which data has shown you that it has worked?The Denmark to Sweden comparison is very convenient, but we see local variations in other parts of the world (see Iran vs. it's neighbors).
Please do present an apples to apples comparison with reliable data that seems to be at odds with what I have presented regarding Sweden and Denmark. Keep in mind I that created this thread before Denmark reopened.

Might it have to do with stay at home order, yes. But I don't think that's conclusive.
Explain how itís not conclusive? Here are almost identical countries in one geographic area with extremely similar cultures and features. Most went one way, 1 went the other as far as stay at home orders are concerned. Otherwise, Iím unaware of any difference in approach. The result was that most had a dramatically lower death and infection rate than the outlier country. Unless you can present a valid third variable I see no reason why this theory doesnít hold up.

Maybe yes, maybe no. I'm not convinced.I just don't see human behavior changing enough to make a dent
Again, it has been proven time and again by science that this works. People have already been careful and that has had a dramatic effect. Why wouldnít this continue to be the case, especially as we gain knowledge of how it spreads?
« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 10:26:12 AM by S209 »
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Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #309 on: May 22, 2020, 10:24:02 AM »
1918 pandemic, we can agree there were no widespread stay at home orders, yes? We know that the pandemic's first wave naturally came to it's first end. Do we know why? Do we know that it's not the same reason this one is seemingly doing so as well?
There were stay at home orders in many places, and those that implemented them had far lower infection rates overall. Itís a classic example of stay at home orders proving effective.

ETA: Here you go
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-04-05/1918-flu-history-offers-context-and-hope-for-coronavirus-pandemic

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/san-francisco-had-1918-flu-under-control-then-it-lifted-n1191141

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article241614086.html

https://time.com/5830265/1918-flu-reopening-coronavirus/


« Last Edit: May 22, 2020, 10:29:35 AM by S209 »
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Offline S209

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #310 on: May 22, 2020, 10:25:15 AM »
When you factor in the percentage of people that would not be susceptible then you could possibly have 55-70 percent of the population which are immune.
What are you talking about? Where have you seen any evidence of people not being susceptible?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #311 on: May 22, 2020, 10:27:51 AM »
Lockdowns around the world are not full lockdowns. And Sweden, despite not locking down, still had many people that were practicing social distancing and being careful despite what the law said. (Thereís actually plenty of evidence of this phenomenon in the US, where states were effectively in self-lockdown before any order was given from the governor.)
This is why government mandated lockdowns are a terrible idea. All we need is the truth from the DOH, CDC, etc. and everyone will make decisions for themselves.

We also see that government regulation were by far the biggest culprits here, between the CDC bungling the tests causing a delay in available tests and governors forcing nursing homes to take COVID+ patients.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #312 on: May 22, 2020, 10:33:01 AM »
What are you talking about? Where have you seen any evidence of people not being susceptible?
Did you not click on any of the three links I posted? 

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #313 on: May 22, 2020, 10:47:08 AM »
I'm not a scientist, so this isn't making sense to me, but maybe someone can explain it to me. Researchers are finding antibodies in uninfected people that are also found in infected people as reactive to Covid. The thought is, people got those antibodies from other coronaviruses, like the common cold, and that may confer some immunity to Covid. Here's the thing: I get a cold twice a year. It's called the common cold because of how common it is. Why would we think those antibodies confer immunity from Covid when they can't even keep us from getting a cold?
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #314 on: May 22, 2020, 10:47:53 AM »
Did you not click on any of the three links I posted?
Tbh I hadnít, no. Just skimmed through them. Nothing proved anything about individuals not being susceptible. They theorized but did not prove that there is crossreactivity from T cells of other coronaviruses that help fight COVID-19. All they showed was that they exist and may help.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #315 on: May 22, 2020, 11:03:56 AM »
Did you not click on any of the three links I posted? 
I did. 2 of them are identical, one being an online version and the other a pdf.

None show anything with any relation to what you said that any people are not susceptible, much less anything like the percentage you made up. Making up these things with no basis in reality is not helpful to anything.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #316 on: May 22, 2020, 11:06:59 AM »
I did. 2 of them are identical, one being an online version and the other a pdf.

None show anything with any relation to what you said that any people are not susceptible, much less anything like the percentage you made up. Making up these things with no basis in reality is not helpful to anything.

The percentage comes from 40-60% of uninfected people already having one of the antibodies labeled as reactive to Covid. Where the immunity is supposed to come from, I still don't get.
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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #317 on: May 22, 2020, 11:18:23 AM »
The percentage comes from 40-60% of uninfected people already having one of the antibodies labeled as reactive to Covid. Where the immunity is supposed to come from, I still don't get.
It comes from other coronaviruses most likely. They found blood samples back from 2015 which were immune to COVID.

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Re: Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison
« Reply #318 on: May 22, 2020, 11:19:53 AM »
I did. 2 of them are identical, one being an online version and the other a pdf.

None show anything with any relation to what you said that any people are not susceptible, much less anything like the percentage you made up. Making up these things with no basis in reality is not helpful to anything.
If you have immunity from other viruses because you have these Tcells then you arenít susceptible to the virus. I didnít make up anything and I confirmed everything in those studies with doctors.

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