Denmark and Sweden: An apples to apples comparison

[S209]

Yet Denmark  continues to have excess mortality while Sweden is running a mortality deficit. There are some studies that seem to show that Sweden has almost no excess mortalities at all compared to recent years. As I’ve said the story is far from over and the true impact of each countries path will only be known some time down the road.

Again, the only theories worth considering are those with *predictive* value. What did you *predict* and what happened? You can find my prediction on this thread, post 1.

[yzj]

Again, the only theories worth considering are those with *predictive* value. What did you *predict* and what happened? You can find my prediction on this thread, post 1.

That would be true if we were decision makers. We are just bystanders, trying to call the game in the third quarter.

[skyguy918]

Yet Denmark  continues to have excess mortality while Sweden is running a mortality deficit. There are some studies that seem to show that Sweden has almost no excess mortalities at all compared to recent years. As I’ve said the story is far from over and the true impact of each countries path will only be known some time down the road.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx

This graph doesn't show what you think it does. It's new cases deaths - if you converted it to cumulative, the massive gap around April would put Sweden well above Denmark still at this point.

[S209]

That would be true if we were decision makers. We are just bystanders, trying to call the game in the third quarter.

As a bystander passing judgement on decision makers, evaluating a decision with a theory that proved to be factual is valuable. Post-game analysis with a retrospective bias is worthless.

Sweden has provably had many more die of COVID than Denmark, as was (quite easily) predicted.

[aygart]

Again, the only theories worth considering are those with *predictive* value.

Why?

[yzj]

This graph doesn't show what you think it does. It's new cases - if you converted it to cumulative, the massive gap around April would put Sweden well above Denmark still at this point.

It’s an excess mortality chart week by week compared to the last 4 years. It shows that Sweden had below average mortality for a few months before the pandemic, followed by a huge spike in mortality during the pandemic, followed by weeks of below average mortality recently. It *could* corroborate the theory that most of the vulnerable and elderly who died in Sweden were those who would normally have died at some point in 2020 in any case. The fact that Denmark didn’t have the same spike, and is not showing the same mortality deficit now fits in well. It’s just a theory which is why it’s prudent to wait to see it it bears out or not. Waiting a couple years will also help put numbers in perspective since Sweden has an increasingly elderly population so mortality rates are likely to trend differently as its population ages. Having the numbers from the years before as well as after the pandemic will help compare the mortality rate to Sweden’s own average apples to apples.

[S209]

This graph doesn't show what you think it does. It's new cases - if you converted it to cumulative, the massive gap around April would put Sweden well above Denmark still at this point.

I assume you mean deaths, and you are correct- Sweden has had far more excess deaths to this point according to that graph.

It’s an excess mortality chart week by week compared to the last 4 years. It shows that Sweden has below average mortality for a few months, followed by a huge spike in mortality during the pandemic, followed be weeks of below average mortality recently. It *could* corroborate the theory that most of the vulnerable and elderly who died in Sweden were those who would normally have died at some point in 2020 in any case. The fact that Denmark didn’t have the same spike, and is not showing the same mortality deficit now fits in well. It’s just a theory which is why it’s prudent to wait to see it it bears out or not.

And Sweden’s excess mortality is massively more than neighboring countries, and their own the last 5 years.

I’m not sure where you’re seeing excess deaths not being significantly more than Denmark’s.

[aygart]

It’s an excess mortality chart week by week compared to the last 4 years. It shows that Sweden has below average mortality for a few months, followed by a huge spike in mortality during the pandemic, followed be weeks of below average mortality recently. It *could* corroborate the theory that most of the vulnerable and elderly who died in Sweden were those who would normally have died at some point in 2020 in any case. The fact that Denmark didn’t have the same spike, and is not showing the same mortality deficit now fits in well. It’s just a theory which is why it’s prudent to wait to see it it bears out or not.

Does the period of ~5% lower than the 5 year avg mortality come anywhere close to evening out the 40%+ spike?

[S209]

Why?

Because everyone can find a retrospective “explanation” for phenomena that fits in with their previous biases. This is one of the most fundamental laws in science, and is how the scientific method functions.

1) Make a theory
2) Run the experiment
3) See if the evidence fits.

[aygart]

Because everyone can find a retrospective “explanation” for phenomena that fits in with their previous biases. This is one of the most fundamental laws in science, and is how the scientific method functions.

1) Make a theory
2) Run the experiment
3) See if the evidence fits.

There are only 2 possible outcomes and each can have multiple causes.

[yzj]

Does the period of ~5% lower than the 5 year avg mortality come anywhere close to evening out the 40%+ spike?

According to this article yes.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx

In any case it is certainly trending in that direction. Even if it takes 12-18 months to come close to even is it fair to call the thousands of deaths Covid casualties?

[aygart]

According to this article yes.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx

In any case it is certainly trending in that direction. Even if it takes 12-18 months to come close to even is it fair to call the thousands of deaths Covid casualties?

If you go long enough then ANYTHING causes ZERO excess deaths since EVERYONE will eventually die anyhow.
Also, that study has been discussed with numerous points having been made contradicting their interpretation of the data. Also, the ~5% lower than 5 year avg mortality is actually above 2019.

[S209]

There are only 2 possible outcomes and each can have multiple causes.

But again, a theory with predictive value is worth something. When enough evidence accumulates in support of or in denial of that theory, it then becomes a fact.

When someone postulates a theory (Sweden won’t be hit hard, Sweden will avoid a second wave, Sweden won’t be hurt economically, Denmark’s lockdown won’t help anyway) and then their theory is proven false, they can’t then pivot to a *contradictory* retrospective theory to fit their pre-bias. That’s laughably illogical, *even* if technically it can be true (though we certainly have seen no evidence of it). When someone postulates a theory (Sweden will suffer more deaths, Denmark will avoid being hit as hard) and is proven correct, their theory now holds more weight and is well on the way toward being considered factual.

[S209]

According to this article yes.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.news-medical.net/amp/news/20201116/Study-compares-deaths-in-Sweden-and-Norway-before-and-after-COVID-pandemic.aspx

In any case it is certainly trending in that direction. Even if it takes 12-18 months to come close to even is it fair to call the thousands of deaths Covid casualties?

Here is my previous rebuttal to that article

The non peer reviewed study you quoted is a cherry picked joke, did you read it?

Here is all cause excess deaths in Sweden vs. Norway as compared to all of the previous 5 years. See if you can spot Sweden.


As we’ve been through ad nauseam, there is no evidence that Denmark (or Norway) suffered more severe damage to their economies, nor were their lockdowns particularly long or harsh. Schools reopened in Denmark in April. Your only saving grace until now has been the claim that Sweden would avoid the second wave that Denmark would suffer. Are you changing your tune?


If so, then this debate is settled. Denmark wins, hands down.

[aygart]

But again, a theory with predictive value is worth something. When enough evidence accumulates in support of or in denial of that theory, it then becomes a fact.

Unless there are alternative theories which explain the facts just as well.

When someone postulates a theory (Sweden won’t be hit hard, Sweden will avoid a second wave, Sweden won’t be hurt economically, Denmark’s lockdown won’t help anyway) and then their theory is proven false, they can’t then pivot to a *contradictory* retrospective theory to fit their pre-bias. That’s laughably illogical, *even* if technically it can be true (though we certainly have seen no evidence of it). When someone postulates a theory (Sweden will suffer more deaths, Denmark will avoid being hit as hard) and is proven correct, their theory now holds more weight and is well on the way toward being considered factual.

This is absolutely true that when someone latches on to all theories that meet their preconceived notions then anything they present will lack credibility.

[S209]

Unless there are alternative theories which explain the facts just as well.

Correct, which is why accumulation of evidence is important. One such good example of two countries that were similar in most areas and the only known relevant variable was their approach vis a vis lockdowns is- you guessed it- Sweden and Denmark.

This is absolutely true that when someone latches on to all theories that meet their preconceived notions then anything they present will lack credibility.

Of course, that is my point. Certainly any actual evidence they present is as worthy as any but explanations and theories post facto, especially those that contradict their earlier theories, should be taken with hefty doses of salt.

[S209]

Just a reminder about what my *predictive* theory was

Denmark and Sweden are next door neighbors, and both recorded their first Covid-19 death a day apart (March 11/12).  This is true apples to apples. Before you go down the density path, let’s point out that Denmark ranks 65th vs. Sweden’s 91st in world’s densest countries, so Denmark is more dense. I challenge you to find a better comparison, factoring in climate, location, political viewpoint, culture, etc.

There is only one gaping difference (that we know of today): their social distancing approach. Denmark was one of the the first in Europe to lock down, and one of the harshest, while Sweden was one of the last and is still not fully locked down.  Let’s see how they compare.

Total corona deaths:
Denmark: 370
Sweden: 1,765

Note: the total deaths number is skewed, because Sweden has nearly double the total population of Denmark. Nevertheless, even after adjusting for population, Sweden is at nearly triple as you’ll see in the next stat. That’s aside from the jolting fact that Sweden’s deaths per day is still sharply on the rise while Denmark’s is nearly down to nothing.

Corona deaths per million:
Denmark: 64
Sweden: 175

New corona deaths on April 21:
Denmark 6
Sweden: 185

Total corona patients in the ICU:
Denmark: 81
Sweden: 515

Active corona cases that we know of:
Denmark: 2,625
Sweden: 13,007

Mind you, it’s not because Sweden is testing more- on the contrary, Denmark has conducted 6,000 more tests than Sweden, which after adjusting for population size is nearly double the tests per million.

As of today: Denmark is starting a gradual reopening of the economy, albeit ready to put the brakes on immediately should they see a sharp rise in infections. The reason? New infections and new deaths have been dramatically slowing down for more than 2 weeks already as of late April. Descent started in March.

As of today: Sweden has been putting consistently harsher measures in place. The reason? They see a consistent doubling of new infections and deaths, still sharply rising as of late April. In all likelihood this will continue for months.

I didn’t do this with California/NY, Israel/Italy, Taiwan/UK, Singapore/Spain, South Korea/France, etc. These two countries are really really similar and were hit in really similar fashions and at a similar time frame. The data is really hard to refute.

Again, we don’t know everything. But we do know that the suffocatingly overwhelming evidence points to extreme social distancing being really effective and the only proven solution to this virus thus far. The stricter and faster, the better.

[avromie7]

Correct, which is why accumulation of evidence is important. One such good example of two countries that were similar in most areas and the only known relevant variable was their approach vis a vis lockdowns is- you guessed it- Sweden and Denmark.
 Of course, that is my point. Certainly any actual evidence they present is as worthy as any but explanations and theories post facto, especially those that contradict their earlier theories, should be taken with hefty doses of salt.

It's been mentioned multiple times, there are major differences in the way they treat patients. A system that leaves the elderly to die will have more deaths.

[aygart]

It's been mentioned multiple times, there are major differences in the way they treat patients. A system that leaves the elderly to die will have more deaths.

So what metric would you prefer using?

[avromie7]

So what metric would you prefer using?

I'm calling out the comparison with "only 1 known relevant variable".