Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate

[Dan]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253352837255438338

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253353968278876171

[Dan]

Looks like a fatality rate of about 0.75% to me.

[CountValentine]

Looks like a fatality rate of about 0.75% to me.

Where you getting that from?

[Dan]

Where you getting that from?

NY population is 19,450,000
Don't have real time numbers, but let's  assume 21,000 are dead in NY from COVID. That's 0.107% of the population.

Approx 13.9% of NY has had COVID. Based on that, if everyone had COVID you would assume there would be 151,000 fatalities in the state.

151,000/19,450,000=0.78%.

Anyone want to check my math?

[AsherO]

NY population is 19,450,000
Don't have real time numbers, but let's  assume 21,000 are dead in NY from COVID. That's 0.107% of the population.

Approx 13.9% of NY has had COVID. Based on that, if everyone had COVID you would assume there would be 151,000 fatalities in the state.

151,000/19,450,000=0.78%.

Anyone want to check my math?

The 13.9% positive was random test of general population?

[shapsam]

The 13.9% positive was random test of general population?

Yes

[CountValentine]

Anyone want to check my math?

Math is fine but your assumptions are just that.

[menachemd1]

Looks like a fatality rate of about 0.75% to me.

He said on the conference it's about 0.5%
https://youtu.be/pGcESyHVu10 42:55

[Lurker]

NY population is 19,450,000
Don't have real time numbers, but let's  assume 21,000 are dead in NY from COVID. That's 0.107% of the population.

Approx 13.9% of NY has had COVID. Based on that, if everyone had COVID you would assume there would be 151,000 fatalities in the state.

151,000/19,450,000=0.78%.

Anyone want to check my math?

I'd do it a different way, similar results. Population x infection rate. Deceased / infected.

So:
19450000 * 13.9% = 2,703,550 infected
Last official NYS stats were 20,248 dead.
Infection rate of .7489%

ETA: given the assumed infection rate of 13.9%, of course. I'm not buying that from 3000 random tests.

[Dan]

Math is fine but your assumptions are just that.

The main assumption is that the antibody test is accurate. What else is assumed?

[ari3]

NY population is 19,450,000
Don't have real time numbers, but let's  assume 21,000 are dead in NY from COVID. That's 0.107% of the population.

Approx 13.9% of NY has had COVID. Based on that, if everyone had COVID you would assume there would be 151,000 fatalities in the state.

151,000/19,450,000=0.78%.

Anyone want to check my math?

You are assuming everyone that had COVID has antibodies. At this point that is just an assumption.

[CountValentine]

If you are going to use these formulas then what is the fatality rate for the flu, .00001?

[Dan]

I'd do it a different way, similar results. Population x infection rate. Deceased / infected.

So:
19450000 * 13.9% = 2,703,550 infected
Last official NYS stats were 20,248 dead.
Infection rate of .7489%

Right, I rounded to 21K to count more recent deaths. Same results.

[CountValentine]

The main assumption is that the antibody test is accurate. What else is assumed?

That this sample size is accurate for one.

[avromie7]

I find the disparity between male and female most interesting. It also concurs with the anecdotal evidence I posted here and can also help explain the higher number of male deaths.

Data point: A close relative of mine, all living in the same house without any quarantining in the house. Father and son tested positive, mother and daughter tested negative. Mother also tested negative for antibodies while father and son tested positive (I mention this to rule out the possibility that she recovered before getting tested). Their married daughter had symptoms and wasnt tested.

[hvaces42]

Very hard to believe the sample is legit as the mortality rate is probably 3:1 Male over female.

[avromie7]

He said on the conference it's about 0.5%
https://youtu.be/pGcESyHVu10 42:55

I believe the official number of deaths is lower because it doesn't include assumed COVID deaths

[ari3]

I find the disparity between male and female most interesting. It also concurs with the anecdotal evidence I posted here and can also help explain the higher number of male deaths.

Also note the disparity between whites and african americans/hispanics

[aradisc]

The main assumption is that the antibody test is accurate. What else is assumed?

What test is the state using, and how is its accuracy determined? From four days ago: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/19/us/coronavirus-antibody-tests.html

[Dan]

If everyone had the flu, 60,000 deaths/328,000,000=0.018%