Author Topic: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate (Read 23415 times)

Chapshnell · « **Reply #20 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:23:34 PM »

If 14% had it that leaves 86% of the people vulnerable for this to start kick again.
I was so certain that the #’s were higher than 14%. Wishful thinking

Dan · « **Reply #21 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:24:25 PM »

Quote from: Chapshnell on April 23, 2020, 01:23:34 PM

If 14% had it that leaves 86% of the people vulnerable for this to start kick again.
I was so certain that the #’s were higher than 14%. Wishful thinking

Well it is higher in NYC.
But nowhere close to herd immunity.

ari3 · « **Reply #22 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:24:54 PM »

Quote from: Chapshnell on April 23, 2020, 01:23:34 PM

If 14% had it that leaves 86% of the people vulnerable for this to start kick again.
I was so certain that the #’s were higher than 14%. Wishful thinking

Did he say what part of the state the tests were done?

Chapshnell · « **Reply #23 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:25:07 PM »

Quote from: Dan on April 23, 2020, 01:23:18 PM

If everyone had the flu, 60,000 deaths/328,000,000=0.018%

0.00018

Dan · « **Reply #24 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:25:30 PM »

Quote from: Chapshnell on April 23, 2020, 01:25:07 PM

0.00018

Same thing.

Yard sale · « **Reply #25 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:25:42 PM »

Quote from: Dan on April 23, 2020, 12:24:41 PM

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253352837255438338

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253353968278876171

Based on those numbers New York City (pop. 8.399 million) works out to around .6%

Dan · « **Reply #26 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:25:52 PM »

Quote from: ari3 on April 23, 2020, 01:24:54 PM

Did he say what part of the state the tests were done?

See OP.

hvaces42 · « **Reply #27 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:26:20 PM »

Quote from: Chapshnell on April 23, 2020, 01:23:34 PM

If 14% had it that leaves 86% of the people vulnerable for this to start kick again.
I was so certain that the #’s were higher than 14%. Wishful thinking

New York City has 8.5MM residents I think. Look at the fatality rate in NYC vs the entire state. NYC has what percentage of total deaths. The numbers are skewed when you do th enetire state. There are counties that have no deaths. They tested 19 counties. There are 62 counties in NY. You need to calculate population of the counties tested to be more accurate. So many assumptions are wrong here.

AsherO · « **Reply #28 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:26:47 PM »

Quote from: ari3 on April 23, 2020, 01:24:54 PM

Did he say what part of the state the tests were done?

40 locations in 19 counties.

Chapshnell · « **Reply #29 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:26:58 PM »

Quote from: Dan on April 23, 2020, 01:25:30 PM

Same thing.

Huh how is 0.00018 & 0.018 the same thing?!

CountValentine · « **Reply #30 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:28:18 PM »

Quote from: Chapshnell on April 23, 2020, 01:26:58 PM

Huh how is 0.00018 & 0.018 the same thing?!

LOL .00018 and .018%
What decimal is 1%?

shapsam · « **Reply #31 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:29:39 PM »

Quote from: Chapshnell on April 23, 2020, 01:26:58 PM

Huh how is 0.00018 & 0.018 the same thing?!

328,000,000 x 0.018% = 59,040
328,000,000 x 0.00018 = 59,040

Dan · « **Reply #32 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:30:01 PM »

Quote from: Chapshnell on April 23, 2020, 01:26:58 PM

Huh how is 0.00018 & 0.018 the same thing?!

It's not, but 0.00018 is 0.018%

AsherO · « **Reply #33 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:30:13 PM »

At the end of the day the aggregate CFR number, even if the sample is representative, is blended. Once you break it down by location/gender/race (assuming you have those demographics for the fatalities as well, you’d end up with different fatality rates by each demographic slice (e.g. white females in Western NYS could be very different from Hispanic males in Rockland County).

Lurker · « **Reply #34 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:30:36 PM »

Quote from: CountValentine on April 23, 2020, 01:28:18 PM

LOL .00018 and .018%
What decimal is 1%?

Being isolated with a teacher is rubbing off...

ari3 · « **Reply #35 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:31:27 PM »

Quote from: Dan on April 23, 2020, 01:25:52 PM

See OP.

Post says 40 sites in 19 counties. Not very helpful. Does the source for your post give more detailed info?

Yard sale · « **Reply #36 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:32:01 PM »

Quote from: Dan on April 23, 2020, 01:24:25 PM

Well it is higher in NYC.
But nowhere close to herd immunity.

Keep in mind that antibodies don’t show up on the test until close to two weeks after exposure plus the time it took to do the sampling (The sampling was done on Monday) so these are antibody numbers from at least the week before pesach. Presumably much higher now.

AsherO · « **Reply #37 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:35:43 PM »

Quote from: Yard sale on April 23, 2020, 01:32:01 PM

Keep in mind that antibodies don’t show up on the test until close to two weeks after exposure plus the time it took to do the sampling so these are antibody numbers from at least the week before pesach. Presumably much higher now.

Much higher? We’ve been under shelter-in-place for a while...

CountValentine · « **Reply #38 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:40:11 PM »

Quote from: Lurker on April 23, 2020, 01:30:36 PM

Being isolated with a teacher is rubbing off...

Who is being isolated with a teacher? I always enjoyed numbers.

Yard sale · « **Reply #39 on:** April 23, 2020, 01:40:39 PM »

Quote from: AsherO on April 23, 2020, 01:35:43 PM

Much higher? We’ve been under shelter-in-place for a while...

Officially. Have you seen all the pictures I’ve seen of the New York City parks and public areas. The subway? The supermarkets or Lowes black Friday in the spring sale? How about the Jewish community pre pesach exposure? I’m not expecting heard immunity numbers but definitely would expect the number to rise appreciably as the testing continues