Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate

[aradisc]

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1253376958261534721

[ari3]

https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1253376958261534721

Call it BS and then ask which test? Why not first get the facts and then decide if you want to start name calling.

[hvaces42]

Call it BS and then ask which test? Why not first get the facts and then decide if you want to start name calling.

No way the numbers are real. Who care what test and when.

[aradisc]

Call it BS and then ask which test? First get the facts and then decide if you want to start name calling.

I wish he started off with more detail, and I anticipate it is forthcoming. Dr. Krammer is a highly regarded virologist though and has published guidelines for serology of COVID-19 so if he has an issue with the data I assume it has some basis.

Also, in general, I would prefer new medical findings to be communicated by medical doctors, virologists, and epidemiologists with the proper amount of context and caveats, as opposed to chief executives.(This goes for both the state and federal government...)

[cmey]

NY population is 19,450,000
Don't have real time numbers, but let's  assume 21,000 are dead in NY from COVID. That's 0.107% of the population.

Approx 13.9% of NY has had COVID. Based on that, if everyone had COVID you would assume there would be 151,000 fatalities in the state.

151,000/19,450,000=0.78%.

Anyone want to check my math?

If the tests reflect infections from early April wouldn’t it make sense to count only the deaths until then? That would mean subtracting several thousand deaths resulting in a much lower fatality rate.
OTOH most deaths now are resulting from those infected several weeks ago. In that case maybe it makes sense to include current deaths?

[Chapshnell]

It's not, but 0.00018 is 0.018%

Got it 

[CountValentine]

The 13.9% positive was random test of general population?

Not of the general population. It was done at grocery stores and shopping centers.
What if they only tested those who took stay at home seriously? You think results would be different?

[CountValentine]

Got it 

So what would 1 cent per mile be? 

[Lurker]

Also, in general, I would prefer new medical findings to be communicated by medical doctors, virologists, and epidemiologists with the proper amount of context and caveats, as opposed to chief executives.(This goes for both the state and federal government...)

+1000

Should have been like that from the beginning.

[CountValentine]

Say what? Is it true they didn't test anyone and these were 3k surveys?

[Chapshnell]

So what would 1 cent per mile be? 

Too cheap to sell

[ari3]

Post says 40 sites in 19 counties. Not very helpful. Does the source for your post give more detailed info?

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. In Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester, where the state’s first major outbreak originated, 11.7% of the tests were positive. The Covid-19  pandemic across the rest of the state is relatively contained with just 3.6% of positive test results.

[S209]

Officially. Have you seen all the pictures I’ve seen of the New York City parks and public areas. The subway? The supermarkets or Lowes black Friday in the spring sale? How about the Jewish community pre pesach exposure? I’m not expecting heard immunity numbers but definitely would expect the number to rise appreciably as the testing continues

Quite a far cry from

80% plus infected seems quite reasonable to me.

[ilherman]

Hold your breaths. I'm not buying yet that it was samples from random population. I would assume that people who've had symptoms turned out at a much higher rate to get tested than someone who is isolated for the past few weeks and did not get it yet. In our community it was at least 50% infection rate if not more.

[aygart]

+1000

Should have been like that from the beginning.

And the reporters at the briefings should have been medical reporters too.

[CountValentine]

Hold your breaths. I'm not buying yet that it was samples from random population.

Not of the general population. It was done at grocery stores and shopping centers.
What if they only tested those who took stay at home seriously? You think results would be different?

Say what? Is it true they didn't test anyone and these were 3k surveys?

[Dan]

In our community it was at least 50% infection rate if not more.

{{Citation needed}}

[hvaces42]

{{Citation needed}}

Sure feels that way even without citation. Every second person had some symptoms. Will not be surprised that its higher than that. Exposure was definitely higher than that. Just look at the numbers from the one New Rochelle case.

[hvaces42]

Does anyone have numbers from the chevra kadisha/funeral homes on how many levayos were done on average? 

[Dan]

Sure feels that way even without citation. Every second person had some symptoms. Will not be surprised that its higher than that. Exposure was definitely higher than that. Just look at the numbers from the one New Rochelle case.

Symptoms can also mean influenza, common cold, etc.
It's possible, but you're going to need more than that to prove a 50% infection rate.