Author Topic: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate  (Read 22972 times)

Offline ilherman

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #60 on: April 23, 2020, 02:38:38 PM »
Symptoms can also mean influenza, common cold, etc.
It's possible, but you're going to need more than that to prove a 50% infection rate.
When is the last time you lost your sense of smell and taste from Flu? Etc etc. Symptoms were quite different than the flu.

And counting all my family members and 50 friends, way more than 50% had it. I was very conservative when I said 50%.
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Offline hvaces42

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #61 on: April 23, 2020, 02:39:06 PM »
Symptoms can also mean influenza, common cold, etc.
It's possible, but you're going to need more than that to prove a 50% infection rate.
Pre-February maybe I would take that into consideration. Anyone with symptoms post-Purim I would seriously attribute only to COVID. It will come out. When the immunity testing ramps up next week you will see it.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #62 on: April 23, 2020, 02:39:18 PM »
Sure feels that way even without citation. Every second person had some symptoms. Will not be surprised that its higher than that. Exposure was definitely higher than that. Just look at the numbers from the one New Rochelle case.

IMHO, this narrative is sooo dangerous to the Tri-state Jewish communities. It breeds a false sense of security, where terms like "herd immunity" are bandied about. Without real numbers, the potential for a second wave devastating those communities is huge. Everyone's walking around feeling like they're Superman, because "I couldn't smell for 3 months!" and "My whole family had it, including my relative who on a vent." IMO, that false sense of security is more dangerous than not knowing anything about it to begin with.
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Offline hvaces42

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #63 on: April 23, 2020, 02:44:07 PM »
IMHO, this narrative is sooo dangerous to the Tri-state Jewish communities. It breeds a false sense of security, where terms like "herd immunity" are bandied about. Without real numbers, the potential for a second wave devastating those communities is huge. Everyone's walking around feeling like they're Superman, because "I couldn't smell for 3 months!" and "My whole family had it, including my relative who on a vent." IMO, that false sense of security is more dangerous than not knowing anything about it to begin with.
Me, my wife, my kids have all been blood tested for antibodies in the last 72 hours. Waiting for results. Labs are finally testing as of this week but with limited capacity. They limited my daughter's office to 50 or so tests per day but promised way more capacity next week.

The test still does not show if the virus is active. It just shows if you have had it. Next week they will have the other half of the test. That should alleviate your concern. There is no herd immunity until you can prove immunity. I would be shocked and terrified if I didnt have it at this point.
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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #64 on: April 23, 2020, 02:47:44 PM »
Me, my wife, my kids have all been blood tested for antibodies in the last 72 hours. Waiting for results. Labs are finally testing as of this week but with limited capacity. They limited my daughter's office to 50 or so tests per day but promised way more capacity next week.

The test still does not show if the virus is active. It just shows if you have had it. Next week they will have the other half of the test. That should alleviate your concern. There is no herd immunity until you can prove immunity. I would be shocked and terrified if I didnt have it at this point.

Testing would absolutely alleviate some of my concerns. Assuming the testing is accurate. But the narrative has been "We all had it, we're fine" for the last few weeks, without any testing.
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Offline iAm

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #65 on: April 23, 2020, 02:53:50 PM »
When is the last time you lost your sense of smell and taste from Flu? Etc etc. Symptoms were quite different than the flu.

And counting all my family members and 50 friends, way more than 50% had it. I was very conservative when I said 50%.

This is definitely some availability bias. A more systematic way of doing this (though also not scientifically sound), would be to go through your shul membership list and see if you can count 50%. You cant count 50, assume you have 100 in the population, and come up with a prevalence.

Or at the very least - take a random sample of people in your shul list, and see who had it within that sample. In stats, you can only determine prevalence when starting with a cohort not with a case.
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Offline ilherman

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #67 on: April 23, 2020, 03:17:49 PM »
This is definitely some availability bias. A more systematic way of doing this (though also not scientifically sound), would be to go through your shul membership list and see if you can count 50%. You cant count 50, assume you have 100 in the population, and come up with a prevalence.

Or at the very least - take a random sample of people in your shul list, and see who had it within that sample. In stats, you can only determine prevalence when starting with a cohort not with a case.
From my shull? 75% had it. I'm not joking. And it was closed the whole time. There is really no point in arguing about this.

You can say that this is just Boro Park and Williamsburg. I have no idea. But whoever lives here knows this to be true.
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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #68 on: April 23, 2020, 03:20:30 PM »
From my shull? 75% had it. I'm not joking. And it was closed the whole time. There is really no point in arguing about this.

You can say that this is just Boro Park and Williamsburg. I have no idea. But whoever lives here knows this to be true.

Question... would you bet someone's life on it?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #70 on: April 23, 2020, 03:28:32 PM »
https://twitter.com/florian_krammer/status/1253396412781469697
The confirmed positive rate citywide is 1.6878% of the population, he believes the actual number is only 3.55-4.74 times that.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline S209

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #71 on: April 23, 2020, 03:30:33 PM »
The confirmed positive rate citywide is 1.6878% of the population, he believes the actual number is only 3.55-4.74 times that.
Based on evidence from other countries he would seem to be right, but based on anecdotal evidence from these forums he would seem to be way off. There’s a good chance the tests are right.
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Offline ilherman

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #72 on: April 23, 2020, 03:43:43 PM »
Question... would you bet someone's life on it?
Where did you see a word about betting lives. I'm just stating facts. I did not propose any decisions based on that.
You can say what you think when you think what you say.

Offline Dan

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #73 on: April 23, 2020, 03:49:20 PM »
Where did you see a word about betting lives. I'm just stating facts. I did not propose any decisions based on that.
Because people in NYC/LW are saying that everyone had it, thus it's OK to go back to normal.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline ilherman

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #74 on: April 23, 2020, 04:06:32 PM »
Because people in NYC/LW are saying that everyone had it, thus it's OK to go back to normal.
That is up for debate. I honestly don't know when it would be the right time. All I said was the fact the here locally bost people had it already.
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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #75 on: April 23, 2020, 04:07:12 PM »
Where did you see a word about betting lives. I'm just stating facts. I did not propose any decisions based on that.

I didn't say you said anything of the sort. I highlighted one word: know. Knowledge is how we make decisions. Based on the "knowledge" you claim to have (and this isn't specific to you, because a lot of people have been saying the same things you just said), would you bet lives on it? How confident are you in this knowledge? What's it worth?
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Offline ari3

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #76 on: April 23, 2020, 04:17:09 PM »
Because people in NYC/LW are saying that everyone had it, thus it's OK to go back to normal.
While some people may be saying that (here and elsewhere) the facts on the ground here in Lakewood is that NOBODY is going back to normal. The streets and stores are fairly empty. The shuls, schools and yeshivos are closed.
(even those that are doing things that  shouldn't be done are doing it in limited fashion with distancing)

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #77 on: April 23, 2020, 04:20:42 PM »
While some people may be saying that (here and elsewhere) the facts on the ground here in Lakewood is that NOBODY is going back to normal. The streets and stores are fairly empty. The shuls, schools and yeshivos are closed.
(even those that are doing things that  shouldn't be done are doing it in limited fashion with distancing)

Kol hakavod to Lakewood! Unfortunately, the reality is very different in many other places.
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Offline hvaces42

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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #78 on: April 23, 2020, 04:42:24 PM »
Kol hakavod to Lakewood! Unfortunately, the reality is very different in many other places.
Things have been operating as usual in BP... ::)
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Re: Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate
« Reply #79 on: April 23, 2020, 04:50:54 PM »
The Statistic suffers from a bias of those that are likely to take the test. It's not a good sign if the testers are all those that think they had symptoms (and most probably had it) and the results show only 14% are immune. It would indicate that tests are not accurate or the high risk of reinfection.