Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate

[iAm]

Counterpoint to Dr. Krammer:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253398325245603840

[avromie7]

The Statistic suffers from a bias of those that are likely to take the test. It's not a good sign if the testers are all those that think they had symptoms (and most probably had it) and the results show only 14% are immune. It would indicate that tests are not accurate or the high risk of reinfection.

Why would that be the case? They're asking random people at the stores. I would love to see how many of them previously tested positive.

[aygart]

Counterpoint to Dr. Krammer:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1253398325245603840

Much of his hypothesis is based on this which is very much the opposite of what many here have been saying. The question among those who know these things is whether it is LOWER than Cuomo's numbers

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1249414308355649536

[iAm]

Much of his hypothesis is based on this which is very much the opposite of what many here have been saying. The question among those who know these things is whether it is LOWER than Cuomo's numbers

His ongoing hypothesis was that we were catching 1/10, 1/20 with the rt-pcr diagnostic test...so if you extrapolate the current confirmed positive rate out by 10-20x, it would be in line with what cuomo is saying the seroprevalence is showing

[hvaces42]

"https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1253353470050041864

For a change something interesting from Ben. Read the thread.

[Dan]

"https://twitter.com/benshapiro/status/1253353470050041864

For a change something interesting from Ben. Read the thread.

Sounds like he agrees with my math.

[S209]

He’s often interesting, but I’m impressed with his attitude. Very different from what my friends who are fans of his are saying.

[yesitsme]

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253352837255438338

https://twitter.com/NYGovCuomo/status/1253353968278876171

list is sorted by AZ

[Dan]

He’s often interesting, but I’m impressed with his attitude. Very different from what my friends who are fans of his are saying.

I've said since day 1, it's just sad that COVID-19 needs to be partisan.

[neveryou]

I've said since day 1, it's just sad that COVID-19 needs to be partisan.

I don't think it has to do with being partisan

Just that there's a limit to how long people are willing to quarantine and have there financial well being be put in jeopardy,
Alot of people can't work from home or are in industries that are being decimated right now

What also frustrates these people is having people whose livelihoods aren't really affected by corona or are well off to handle this storm lecture them on staying home and not making money

[S209]

I don't think it has to do with being partisan

Just that there's a limit to how long people are willing to quarantine and have there financial well being be put in jeopardy,
Alot of people can't work from home or are in industries that are being decimated right now

What also frustrates these people is having people whose livelihoods aren't really affected by corona or are well off to handle this storm lecture them on staying home and not making money

Are they cognizant of the risks and downsides? Do they make articulate arguments that weigh all of the risks vs. all of the benefits? Or do they just look at doctors and scientists as one big group of loopy doomsayers who can’t possibly be right?

That’s partisan. And that’s a crying shame.

[Dan]

I don't think it has to do with being partisan

Just that there's a limit to how long people are willing to quarantine and have there financial well being be put in jeopardy,
Alot of people can't work from home or are in industries that are being decimated right now

What also frustrates these people is having people whose livelihoods aren't really affected by corona or are well off to handle this storm lecture them on staying home and not making money

It's cute when people assume that other people's income isn't being massively affected and only woe is them.

[CountValentine]

Sounds like he agrees with my math.

Your math is 100% correct. That is not the problem. 

[CountValentine]

I don't think it has to do with being partisan

Just that there's a limit to how long people are willing to quarantine and have there financial well being be put in jeopardy,
Alot of people can't work from home or are in industries that are being decimated right now

What also frustrates these people is having people whose livelihoods aren't really affected by corona or are well off to handle this storm lecture them on staying home and not making money

You don't think it is partisan? If not then all the R governors holdouts are idiots. Georgia's R governor is an idiot. FL the same thing.

[neveryou]

It's cute when people assume that other people's income isn't being massively affected and only woe is them.

Wasn't trying to bash anybody here,

The politicians that are setting policy are still getting paid and they dont understand what we're going through financially

[S209]

Wasn't trying to bash anybody here,

The politicians that are setting policy are still getting paid and they dont understand what we're going through financially

The politicians setting policy are voted in and out by the voters and especially special interests, so they have an incentive to keep as many jobs open as they can AND as many people not dead as possible

[Lurker]

You don't think it is partisan? If not then all the R governors holdouts are idiots. Georgia's R governor is an idiot. FL the same thing.

We've agreed to collectively scratch our heads at deSantis. But... FL is #10 in deaths despite being one of the most populated states, having a very high population density in the tri-county area, and having one of the oldest populations in the country. Oh yea, and spring break. And cruise ships. And when I say #10, really, we're closer to 17 than 9...

Numbers haven't really made much sense to me during this pandemic, which is depressing. I like numbers. One plus one is always two. We're not seeing the whole picture, and we're most likely too early on in this game to put too much stock into numbers. But I can't help but wonder... maybe the crazy fox knows something we don't?

[shapsam]

We've agreed to collectively scratch our heads at deSantis. But... FL is #10 in deaths despite being one of the most populated states, having a very high population density in the tri-county area, and having one of the oldest populations in the country. Oh yea, and spring break. And cruise ships. And when I say #10, really, we're closer to 17 than 9...

Numbers haven't really made much sense to me during this pandemic, which is depressing. I like numbers. One plus one is always two. We're not seeing the whole picture, and we're most likely too early on in this game to put too much stock into numbers. But I can't help but wonder... maybe the crazy fox knows something we don't?

Maybe the FL weather?

[S209]

We've agreed to collectively scratch our heads at deSantis. But... FL is #10 in deaths despite being one of the most populated states, having a very high population density in the tri-county area, and having one of the oldest populations in the country. Oh yea, and spring break. And cruise ships. And when I say #10, really, we're closer to 17 than 9...

Numbers haven't really made much sense to me during this pandemic, which is depressing. I like numbers. One plus one is always two. We're not seeing the whole picture, and we're most likely too early on in this game to put too much stock into numbers. But I can't help but wonder... maybe the crazy fox knows something we don't?

They don’t know anything you don’t. They are taking a gamble that just may turn out ok. We really have no way of knowing right now. Just the facts at hand to work on.

I don’t think anybody has said there is zero merit to any case for things to turn out very different from expected. There is no expected, in fact.

As you’ve said, though, are we ready to bet lives on it? I vote no way

[CountValentine]

As you’ve said, though, are we ready to bet lives on it? I vote no way

This is totally unfair.
Is your approach betting lives?

Your approach is guaranteed to kill 60k+ lives!!! Is that fair?