Calculating The Actual Fatality Rate

[etech0]

As long as the hospitals have not gotten overwhelmed (it seems this has been very much toeing the line and sometimes somewhat past it but never on a scale like Italy) then there is a strong chance that we could not have saved more, but rather it would be the same numbers spread over a longer period. Stronger restrictions for more time to end up with the same result may not be the best trade-off considering the mental health repercussions etc. and that there would be a similar amount of broken families.

The entire purpose of all this was purely to prevent the hospitals from getting overwhelmed. Over the long term, the only other answer is a vaccine or improved treatment. If we were successful at that then we did very well. In a way, being close to overwhelming the system without quite getting there is the best possible outcome. It allows for the best medical results with the least disruption.

What about those people who didn't get it yet and it would be dangerous for them to. Do they need to stay locked up forever?

[avromie7]

What about those people who didn't get it yet and it would be dangerous for them to. Do they need to stay locked up forever?

That's another upside of opening up sooner rather than later, the younger/healthy people get immunity so the older/sicker people will be able to get out sooner.

[Lurker]

You're essentially saying I don't think I'm taking the moral high ground but I value life more than him AKA I'm taking the moral high ground 

Why do my morals have to be the same as his? There is no high ground.

[Lurker]

What about those people who didn't get it yet and it would be dangerous for them to. Do they need to stay locked up forever?

They'll find other ways to live. People do it every day. You have people living with deathly allergies to sunlight.

[Lurker]

That's another upside of opening up sooner rather than later, the younger/healthy people get immunity so the older/sicker people will be able to get out sooner.

Just because you keep saying it, doesn't make it true. Who said you have immunity if you already had it?

[CountValentine]

Just because you keep saying it, doesn't make it true. Who said you have immunity if you already had it?

That is the current thinking.

[etech0]

That's another upside of opening up sooner rather than later, the younger/healthy people get immunity so the older/sicker people will be able to get out sooner.

Right. Though all the uncertainty about how long people are contagious makes that more complicated.

I don't know if it was smart or not, but I know someone who specifically wanted to get it now, so that they wouldn't have to worry about getting it in 10 years.

[etech0]

That is the current thinking.

So lock up the world forever?

[Dan]

Right. Though all the uncertainty about how long people are contagious makes that more complicated.

I don't know if it was smart or not, but I know someone who specifically wanted to get it now, so that they wouldn't have to worry about getting it in 10 years.

That's completely idiotic.
Maybe that would make sense if in a year from now if they tell us they can't make an effective vaccine.

[etech0]

That's completely idiotic.
Maybe that would make sense if in a year from now if they tell us they can't make an effective vaccine.

Wasn't my idea!

[AsherO]

Right. Though all the uncertainty about how long people are contagious makes that more complicated.

I don't know if it was smart or not, but I know someone who specifically wanted to get it now, so that they wouldn't have to worry about getting it in 10 years.

So this person was committed to strictly isolating themselves (incl. from household members) from when symptoms start/testing positive until after symptoms abate (3/7 days if you want to get technical)? Otherwise they were risking other people’s’ lives for their own peace of mind.

[etech0]

So this person was committed to strictly isolating themselves (incl. from household members) from when symptoms start/testing positive until after symptoms abate (3/7 days if you want to get technical)? Otherwise they were risking other people’s’ lives for their own peace of mind.

That I do not know. I only found out about this after the person was sick and then better.

[AsherO]

That I do not know. I only found out about this after the person was sick and then better.

I’m not asking about this person specifically, just pointing out the obvious in case someone is dumb enough to consider this.

[etech0]

I’m not asking about this person specifically, just pointing out the obvious in case someone is dumb enough to consider this.

Exactly

[CountValentine]

So lock up the world forever?

How did you get that from my response?
"Current thinking" is you have a certain amount of immunity once you get it. 

[chevron]

There's that, which means less deaths.
And there's the hope we find a working treatment and vaccine.

Treatment, more and better supplies, drugs etc

We are going to need less ventilators as they work to keep people off.

This in turn makes it easier to manage care and keep people alive.

Better screening,monitoring etc.

If the infective rates do go up, the death rates will go down as care, treatment etc improves.

[neveryou]

In MA about half the deaths are at nursing homes/health care facilities

I think that should be taken into account when finding out what the death rate is bc a shutdown isnt going to help these facilities, it's bad management at these facilities that's causing it

[AsherO]

In MA about half the deaths are at nursing homes/health care facilities

I think that should be taken into account when finding out what the death rate is bc a shutdown isnt going to help these facilities, it's bad management at these facilities that's causing it

Shutting down lowers the risks for contagion from any employee at these facilities that goes home. That's a separate factor from PPP/procedures at these facilities, which is a factor as well.

[ari3]

In MA about half the deaths are at nursing homes/health care facilities

I think that should be taken into account when finding out what the death rate is bc a shutdown isnt going to help these facilities, it's bad management at these facilities that's causing it

The high rate of deaths in nursing homes is everywhere and cannot be blamed solely on bad management (although in some instances it may have played a role).

You are dealing with an extremely vulnerable population that due to the fact they usually need care from multiple people that are circulating among many patients it is impossible to truly isolate. Once coronavirus gets in it is very difficult to contain.  That makes a nursing home a virtual death trap. Especially since in many places it got in before full lockdown went into effect.

Add to that that in NY you had the governor forcing homes to take recovering patients that were infected (yes he has blood on his hands, thats been discussed on other threads I think).

Unfortunately there were elderly people that isolated at home and still caught it from their home heath care aides and died.

[S209]

CFR means total recorded deaths over total recorded cases
IFR means total recorded deaths over actual total of cases

People who make the case that this is .5-.8 (not necessarily accurate) vs. the flu which is .1 and therefore it’s only slightly deadlier are being completely disingenuous by using the CFR for the flu and the IFR for COVID.

The flu has a CFR of about .1. That means flu deaths over RECORDED flu cases. Estimates are all over the place about the true IFR for flu, but most assume between a quarter and half of cases are tested/recorded. That would place it as somewhere between .025 and .05. That would mean the true IFR of COVID (assuming only .5) would be between 10 and 20 times that of the flu!!

That’s aside for being fallacious because this is far more contagious than flu (even more according to your numbers, because you’re purporting there are far more cases) and thus far more deadly. Even if NYC was 100% infected (ludicrous) we’ve already far surpassed the flu’s IFR (by a factor of up to 5!).

All you need to do is use anecdotal evidence to see this is NOTHING like the flu, nor anything we’ve ever seen in modern history. I shouldn’t need to show you with statistics.