Can we stop this stupidity?!? Corona IS dangerous to young people.

[AsherO]

We are still seeing around 5 thousand new positives a day in NYC which means that the virus it still spreading but at a lower infection rate (R>.07) which I have seen people attribute to some sort of herd immunity.

Do you know anything about this or are you regurgitating data based on a journalist’s tweets?

Also, what does the  R>.7 notation mean? I know nothing about epidemiology, so please explain.

[CountValentine]

If R0 is less than 1, each existing infection causes less than one new infection. In this case, the disease will decline and eventually die out.
If R0 equals 1, each existing infection causes one new infection. The disease will stay alive and stable, but there won’t be an outbreak or an epidemic.
If R0 is more than 1, each existing infection causes more than one new infection. The disease will be transmitted between people, and there may be an outbreak or epidemic.

[S209]

We are still seeing around 5 thousand new positives a day in NYC which means that the virus it still spreading but at a lower infection rate (R>.07) which I have seen people attribute to some sort of herd immunity.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1252703694380040192?s=21

There’s no reason not to attribute it to social distancing, when that’s literally the reason we are social distancing.. why would that seem like immunity kicking in?

I’m not discounting the possibility, I’m saying it doesn’t really make too much scientific sense (R0 would be falling too rapidly and it is during a time of extreme social distancing which obviously should cause infection rate to plummet)

[chevron]

The new lower rates of infection most likely represent caution etc.

[AsherO]

Antibodies are only developed three weeks after infection.

Source? Antibodies start to develop as the body fights off the infection, which for those with symptoms is likely x amount of time after symptoms began. What’s your source that it’s 3 weeks? (AFAIK we haven’t ascertained yet that it’s 3 weeks)

[Afrages6]

Do you know anything about this or are you regurgitating data based on a journalist’s tweets?

Also, what does the  R>.7 notation mean? I know nothing about epidemiology, so please explain.

I am nowhere close to an expert but I have spent a nice amount of time researching this and speaking to people who know a lot more then I do. The R>.7 literally means that 10 people transfer the virus to 7 people. In March it was R>3 which means that 10 people were transferring the virus to 30 people.

[CountValentine]

I am nowhere close to an expert but I have spent a nice amount of time researching this and speaking to people who know a lot more then I do. The R>.7 literally means that 10 people transfer the virus to 7 people. In March it was R>3 which means that 10 people were transferring the virus to 30 people.

So if that is true then this virus will just die out. Don't think anyone believes that at this point.

[Afrages6]

So if that is true then this virus will just die out. Don't think anyone believes that at this point.

No ones for sure what will happen with the virus. Considering it is literally everywhere in the world at this point it’s hard to assume it’ll just die out without infecting a large percentage of the population.

[AsherO]

So if that is true then this virus will just die out. Don't think anyone believes that at this point.

It will if we maintain the same degree of social distancing, but we don’t know how long it will take...

[Afrages6]

It will if we maintain the same degree of social distancing, but we don’t know how long it will take...

How do you figure?

[chevron]

It will if we maintain the same degree of social distancing, but we don’t know how long it will take...

It will die out if we maintain social distancing And you can't get reinfected. In this circumstances, very small amountnt of people will get infected.

Since social distance , they will infect nobody or very few, also assuming that even anybody who does come in contact with them, a portion will have been infected prior.

So at this rate the virus dies out, having infected say + 10-20% of poppulation

[Afrages6]

It will die out if we maintain social distancing And you can't get reinfected. In this circumstances, very small amountnt of people will get infected.

Since social distance , they will infect nobody or very few, also assuming that even anybody who does come in contact with them, a portion will have been infected prior.

So at this rate the virus dies out, having infected say + 10-20% of poppulation

Like I said before, we are already seeing the results of a large swath of the downstate NY population being infected.

[AsherO]

How do you figure?

If every 10 people give it to 7, those 7 will give it to 4.9, who will in turn give it to 3.43, who will in turn give it to 2.4 etc. meaning with every “generation” of transmission less new infections than before (R < 1)

[Afrages6]

If every 10 people give it to 7, those 7 will give it to 4.9, who will in turn give it to 3.43, who will in turn give it to 2.4 etc. meaning with every “generation” of transmission less new infections than before (R < 1)

That is true but all you need is a patient zero to infect 8 people and then we start all over again.

[S209]

That is true but all you need is a patient zero to infect 8 people and then we start all over again.

If the infection rate is less than 1 on average then that’s not true.. because those 8 will only infect 5 who will only infect 3 etc.

That is how herd immunity works

[Afrages6]

If the infection rate is less than 1 on average then that’s not true.. because those 8 will only infect 5 who will only infect 3 etc.

That is how herd immunity works

People here were saying no herd immunity so I was playing along.

[AsherO]

That is true but all you need is a patient zero to infect 8 people and then we start all over again.

I’m sorry but that makes no sense. If R is .7 then how will one person infect 8?

[Afrages6]

I’m sorry but you’re making no sense. If R is .7 then how will one person infect 8?

I was just giving a hypothetical example of how it likely won’t just go away with social distancing.

[AsherO]

I was just giving a hypothetical example of how it likely won’t just go away with social distancing.

Your hypothesis isn’t logical. If R=.7 then the one new case won’t infect 8 others.

[Afrages6]

Your hypothesis isn’t logical. If R=.7 then the one new case won’t infect 8 others.

It only takes one person or gathering to start another outbreak and start raising the infection rate once again.