Can we stop this stupidity?!? Corona IS dangerous to young people.

[CountValentine]

we dont know what the outcome will be, but to say 88% died is false. To say "only 25% died" and infer that 75% survived is also wrong. In all likelyhood the sickest already died and the healthiest were discharged, while the remainder are somewhere in the middle.

No 88% died of those outcomes known. Once the rest of the outcomes are known that figure will be updated. It can go either way.

[yuneeq]

No 88% died of those outcomes known. Once the rest of the outcomes are known that figure will be updated. It can go either way.

The stat was 88% of patients that went on to ventilators died. That is a fake stat. The stat you are giving is a different stat and I have no problem with it.

[S209]

How dare they think or do anything you disagree with. I think I'm catching your flow.

I do concede that we don’t know anything for sure. I’ll also agree there are some anomalies on both sides of the spectrum. That said, I read the article linked fully expecting it to make a compelling case against locking down but instead it was filled with more of the anti-science drivel I’ve been seeing more and more of from Fox. What is this website? I’d put serious money down they’re a hard right crank news site.

Some of their nonsensical arguments which they maintain are “facts”
“It’s clearly in the .1-.3 range as far as mortality rate”- really? On what planet? According to 2 non-peer reviewed controversial studies, there may be room to say its in that range in the lowest possible option they’re offering. But according to the main body of science it’s far more deadly, AND more contagious, including the less controversial recent NY study. I’m not dismissing the option out of hand. But to suggest that’s where science is today is absolutely ludicrous.

“locking down doesn’t help anyway, because COVID can live on plastic for up to 3 days, so odds are there’s COVID in your house and car anyway from things you bought”- I’m not even going to bother trying to pick this apart. I’ll leave it to you to figure out why a scenario where the only possible entry into your home is lingering plastic or the occasional trip to the grocery store is not the same as a scenario where everyone is acting as normal in all respects.

“people aren’t dying of COVID, they’re dying with COVID”- Aha. That explains the sharp spike in mortality in NY, specifically of people with COVID. Approximately double the amount of people as normal  are dying in NY each day. What a moron.

By the way. They acknowledge that locking down was the correct action to take based on the available data, and say we should open up now. I think once we locked down we should wait a little bit longer and then open back up with safety measures in place, once we know more. The experience of their clinic isn’t really relevant because they are located in an area that locked down early, thus preempting many deaths from COVID. I’d take the opinion of doctors located in NY a lot more seriously as they can appropriately see and weigh both sides of the equation.

All in all, I never claimed to be omniscient or know the way. I simply made an argument based on empirical data that I think remains compelling.

[Yammer]

In Miami Dade county of 2.5 million there's a reported 287 death's.

So I mean yeah I'm tempted to lick the bus benches and all.

It's great to look forward. It's just hoping that everyone doesn't run out and the infection rate exploding.

This is very interesting, because they dealt with spring breakers etc, that openly defied the social distancing rules.

Why not the huge surge in cases/hospitalization?

Unless, by the time it spread to Miami, the older generation took it very seriously, and only the young were getting it

[momo]

NYC death rates  11,817.

If That is based on the fact that 20% got it.

If God forbid 40% got it. The death toll wouldn't be 24,000 it would be 48,000 God forbid.

They would have run out of beds, medicine, equipment, health care workers etc.

just fyi, 25% of covid deaths in ny are nursing home patients.

[chevron]

This is very interesting, because they dealt with spring breakers etc, that openly defied the social distancing rules.

Why not the huge surge in cases/hospitalization?

Unless, by the time it spread to Miami, the older generation took it very seriously, and only the young were getting it

Miami is less dense. By Purim or shortly thereafter most shuls closed.

Schools closed early on.

I don't think the average local partied by spring break. Yeah many caught it but those were people actually partying.

I just don't think it took ahold here.

[Afrages6]

just fyi, 25% of covid deaths in ny are nursing home patients.

Massachusetts it’s over 50 percent.

[chevron]

Even if 6% of the population did get it. That's much less than NYC of 20%.

Also absolutely the elderly have been shacked up and I'm assuming nursing homes on lockdown.

The numbers are low thank God.

[yuneeq]

Even if 6% of the population did get it. That's much less than NYC of 20%.

Also absolutely the elderly have been shacked up and I'm assuming nursing homes on lockdown.

The numbers are low thank God.

20% is based on antibody tests (including false positives) of people that are most likely to get infected and have minor symptoms. Those that are at most risk are likely much lower percentages. I don’t think the elderly, nursing home patients, and the immunocompromised would be well represented in a study of super market shoppers.

“State researchers sampled blood from the approximately 3,000 people they had tested over two days, including about 1,300 in New York City, at grocery and big-box stores.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

[AsherO]

20% is based on antibody tests (including false positives) of people that are most likely to get infected and have minor symptoms. Those that are at most risk are likely much lower percentages. I don’t think the elderly, nursing home patients, and the immunocompromised would be well represented in a study of super market shoppers.

“State researchers sampled blood from the approximately 3,000 people they had tested over two days, including about 1,300 in New York City, at grocery and big-box stores.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

I don’t think they would be so stupid as to extrapolate 21.2% for NYC from a test with a high rate of false positives, it’s probably ERISA with accuracy of 99%+

Article seems to lean towards these 3,000 tests being of the reliable variety.

[Afrages6]

I don’t think they would be so stupid as to extrapolate 21.2% for NYC from a test with a high rate of false positives, it’s probably ERISA with accuracy of 99%+

Article seems to lean towards these 3,000 tests being of the reliable variety.

There is also a three week lag from infection too developing antibodies as well as hospital workers and other essential workers not being included. It is likely a higher number then that infected in NYC, the infection rate being at .7 also indicates that there is some sort of “herd immunity” already.

[chevron]

20% is based on antibody tests (including false positives) of people that are most likely to get infected and have minor symptoms. Those that are at most risk are likely much lower percentages. I don’t think the elderly, nursing home patients, and the immunocompromised would be well represented in a study of super market shoppers.

“State researchers sampled blood from the approximately 3,000 people they had tested over two days, including about 1,300 in New York City, at grocery and big-box stores.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/23/nyregion/coronavirus-antibodies-test-ny.html

This does make sense. They are testing a small % and using that to base the city numbers.

But as mentioned, they are probably testing younger active people. Are they tested older isolated people ?

[yuneeq]

I don’t think they would be so stupid as to extrapolate 21.2% for NYC from a test with a high rate of false positives, it’s probably ERISA with accuracy of 99%+

Article seems to lean towards these 3,000 tests being of the reliable variety.

Source? All I found is that the FDA has not reviewed or confirmed any accuracy claims, and there’s no such thing as a known “reliable” test yet.

“FDA is unable to validate the accuracy of antibody tests that are already on the market, and companies are ignoring requests from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to voluntarily submit their tests for validation.“

https://oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/ECP%20Staff%20Report%20on%20Preliminary%20Findings%20of%20the%20Subcommittee’s%20Coronavirus%20Antibody%20Testing%20Investigation.pdf

[AsherO]

There is also a three week lag from infection too developing antibodies as well as hospital workers and other essential workers not being included. It is likely a higher number then that infected in NYC, the infection rate being at .7 also indicates that there is some sort of “herd immunity” already.

The 3k tests aren’t from three weeks ago, and we don’t know how long it takes to develop “immunity”. I don’t know what you mean by “some level of herd immunity”. If we stopped social distancing now we risk Ch”v the same that happened in the two weeks following Purim all over again, maybe worse.

[S209]

I don’t think they would be so stupid as to extrapolate 21.2% for NYC from a test with a high rate of false positives, it’s probably ERISA with accuracy of 99%+

Article seems to lean towards these 3,000 tests being of the reliable variety.

Source? All I found is that the FDA has not reviewed or confirmed any accuracy claims, and there’s no such thing as a known “reliable” test yet.

“FDA is unable to validate the accuracy of antibody tests that are already on the market, and companies are ignoring requests from the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) to voluntarily submit their tests for validation.“

https://oversight.house.gov/sites/democrats.oversight.house.gov/files/ECP%20Staff%20Report%20on%20Preliminary%20Findings%20of%20the%20Subcommittee’s%20Coronavirus%20Antibody%20Testing%20Investigation.pdf

https://www.evaluate.com/vantage/articles/analysis/spotlight/covid-19-antibody-tests-face-very-specific-problem

[Afrages6]

The 3k tests aren’t from three weeks ago, and we don’t know how long it takes to develop “immunity”. I don’t know what you mean by “some level of herd immunity”. If we stopped social distancing now we risk Ch”v the same that happened in the two weeks following Purim all over again, maybe worse.

Antibodies are only developed three weeks after infection. The infection rate in NY is now R>.7 which does infer that the virus is spreading slower due to more people being infected already and therefore not currently carrying the virus.

[S209]

Antibodies are only developed three weeks after infection. The infection rate in NY is now R>.7 which does infer that the virus is spreading slower due to more people being infected already and therefore not currently carrying the virus.

Why do you say it’s due to more people being infected? The consensus opinion seems to be that it’s lower because of social distancing.

That’s also the simplest explanation. If the R0 is really 3 or more than it wouldn’t ordinarily drop below 1 until we reached 50-75% immunity (assuming that exists)

[flatbush guy]

NYC death rates  11,817.

If That is based on the fact that 20% got it.

If God forbid 40% got it. The death toll wouldn't be 24,000 it would be 48,000 God forbid.

They would have run out of beds, medicine, equipment, health care workers etc.

The number for NYC is over 17 thousand

[Afrages6]

Why do you say it’s due to more people being infected? The consensus opinion seems to be that it’s lower because of social distancing.

That’s also the simplest explanation. If the R0 is really 3 or more than it wouldn’t ordinarily drop below 1 until we reached 50-75% immunity (assuming that exists)

We are still seeing around 5 thousand new positives a day in NYC which means that the virus it still spreading but at a lower infection rate (R>.07) which I have seen people attribute to some sort of herd immunity.

https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1252703694380040192?s=21

[Yitz]

I was told that I have anti bodies I took a blood test. My Dr. is not sure how this is going to help me. As the information on this sickness is new. Also Information that we are getting information are conflicting each other.