Do you know someone who has had Coronavirus after Pesach?

[Moshe123]

My wife and I were sick for the past few days. Both tested positive today.
Lakewood nj

Are you publicizing for contact tracing? Have you been to shul?

[Jeremiah]

My wife and I were sick for the past few days. Both tested positive today.
Lakewood nj

Is this the first time you are having symptoms? 

[etech0]

Talking if which, is the Count moving his daughters wedding venue to Ohio to be able to accommodate all the guests?

I hope you meant to say "Speaking of which"

[ExGingi]

I hope you meant to say "Speaking of which"

I'm under the influence of my 2 year old who very cutely mixes somewhat related verbs.

[happyyyr]

Is this the first time you are having symptoms? 

Yes. 

[Yard sale]

Yes.

Were you practicing strict social distancing until now? Did you or your spouse travel outside of Lakewood within the past few weeks?

[4yourinfo]

My wife and I were sick for the past few days. Both tested positive today.
Lakewood nj

Did you test for the flu or strep? I and many others had symptoms 2+ months ago but still got a positive result 2 months later. It's possible you got the virus a while back and now you're sick with something else. What are your symptoms?

[mgarfin]

I know of a hospitalization due to coved this weekend in BP.
Guy is 50-55

[yuneeq]

Is this the first time you are having symptoms?

Were you practicing strict social distancing until now? Did you or your spouse travel outside of Lakewood within the past few weeks?

Did you test for the flu or strep? I and many others had symptoms 2+ months ago but still got a positive result 2 months later. It's possible you got the virus a while back and now you're sick with something else. What are your symptoms?

I see pre-Purim denial mode is back in full force once again. When there’s 2500 new cases a day in NY/NJ, and there’s more new cases in the US yesterday than there was 25 days before, you kinda don’t need a 60 Minutes investigation to believe that someone in Lakewood may in fact have corona. AFAIK, the Ihr Hatorah™️ coronavirus exemption is still not yet in effect.

[Yard sale]

I see pre-Purim denial mode is back in full force once again. When there’s 2500 new cases a day in NY/NJ, and there’s more new cases in the US yesterday than there was 25 days before, you kinda don’t need a 60 Minutes investigation to believe that someone in Lakewood may in fact have corona. AFAIK, the Ihr Hatorah™️ coronavirus exemption is still not yet in effect.

Talk about an agenda. This is about getting reliable data points not proving that it does or doesn’t exist. We have several reports of recent symptomatic positive such as Rabbi Rottberg mentioned previously. It is important to know if they fit a pattern and what that pattern is. If they are in strict quarantine and recently went to shul that is a pertinent data point. If they attended a wedding in PA with others from across the US that is a very different data point.

It is obvious that the 20 or so daily positives from the OCHD are a data point but are not going to give us a good picture of what’s really going on.

[Dan]

Talk about an agenda.

And that would be?

[Yard sale]

And that would be?

No idea. Why would anyone asking valid questions

Were you practicing strict social distancing until now? Did you or your spouse travel outside of Lakewood within the past few weeks?

Did you test for the flu or strep? I and many others had symptoms 2+ months ago but still got a positive result 2 months later. It's possible you got the virus a while back and now you're sick with something else. What are your symptoms?

be relegated to

I see pre-Purim denial mode is back in full force once again.

Sure there are those who were in denial before purim and there will be those in denial if there is a second wave. But valid questions are not something that should be lumped together with them. We ought to focus carefully on the data and the more detailed the data points are the more useful that data is.

I think it’s fair to expect some spread with any reopening since a significant amount of people did shelter in place. If and when we do see an uptick in cases it is important to get a good picture. What is the demographic? Is it widespread? Is it leading to significant hospitalizations or ch”v increased mortality? Or is it something to be taken in context as the price of reopening?

And I must say, along with the covid deniers there are extremes on the other side too. I’ve heard people say even one Jewish death is too much and we must keep everything on lockdown unless we can be sure that will not happen.

That is simply not a way to live life. If we looked at every summer season with the tragedies that happen in the water and on the roads, if we looked at every mass event like the siyum hashas and worried over injuries and people getting sick in the cold etc we would be paralyzed with indecision. There is a certain acceptable amount of risk and it has to be proportional. There one acceptable level of risk for a camp wilderness trek. There’s a different level of acceptable risk for opening shuls and yeshivos and living normal communal Jewish life.

I don’t think there’s a consensus of what that level is but it ought to be within a range. And the only way to get a sense of that risk is to get good data. If a second wave comes and is indeed severe (I do not expect to see this) I want to be able to see this in the data so I can be one of the first to take precautions as I did purim time. And if it looks manageable as it does at this point (I do think a number of people getting sick and recovering is an acceptable risk) I want to look at every new data point to see if there are any indications that a close eye should be kept on the situation.

Is it possible we miss the start of a new wave and are caught flatfooted like before purim? Sure. Life is full of risks. As long as our best guess is that that is not the case and the risk is proportional that is the way to go, within reason.

[yuneeq]

@Yard sale

You summed it up best yourself.

If a second wave comes and is indeed severe (I do not expect to see this)

What do you see now, that you didn’t see before Purim, that led you to your conclusion?

[Yard sale]

@Yard sale

You summed it up best yourself.

What do you see now, that you didn’t see before Purim, that led you to your conclusion?

I was referring specifically to Lakewood and at this time I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a second wave of the magnitude that would warrant a continued shutdown. The reasons were enumerated many times in these forums, among them, substantial spread throughout Lakewood in the first wave, some level of continued social distancing even among those who have stopped quarantining, lack of superspreader events that were present during the first wave, far better treatment protocols, and many other such factors that have been discussed on these forums. I am not discounting the possibility, and do not have an agenda to negate any data showing the contrary but that seems to be a reasonable assessment at this time. You are welcome to disagree.

[etech0]

I may be wrong but the impression I got with the questions that were asked of @happyyyr is that they were innocent questions looking to gather information about a specific situation, as opposed to agenda-driven questions looking to prove a broader theory right or wrong.

[yuneeq]

I was referring specifically to Lakewood and at this time I don’t think it’s reasonable to expect a second wave of the magnitude that would warrant a continued shutdown. The reasons were enumerated many times in these forums, among them, substantial spread throughout Lakewood in the first wave, some level of continued social distancing even among those who have stopped quarantining, lack of superspreader events that were present during the first wave, far better treatment protocols, and many other such factors that have been discussed on these forums. I am not discounting the possibility, and do not have an agenda to negate any data showing the contrary but that seems to be a reasonable assessment at this time. You are welcome to disagree.

Yes, the imaginary statistics that you and others are relying on. Before Purim we had similarly scientific reasoning, Lakewood is Ir Hatorah, Lakewood doesn’t have any cases, it only affects modox, etc.

As of now, you have no idea what percentage of Lakewood has gotten it. And there’s literally no social distancing for a large percentage of the population and the rest have eased it up a lot. There’s nothing preventing a second wave besides the one above.

[Yard sale]

Yes, the imaginary statistics that you and others are relying on. Before Purim we had similarly scientific reasoning, Lakewood is Ir Hatorah, Lakewood doesn’t have any cases, it only affects modox, etc.

As of now, you have no idea what percentage of Lakewood has gotten it. And there’s literally no social distancing for a large percentage of the population and the rest have eased it up a lot. There’s nothing preventing a second wave besides the one above.

Why are you lumping a reasonable position together with ridiculous ones? Here is my take on it from early on, when many others on DDF were saying there was no evidence it was spreading in the frum community:

Given the incubation period and the fact that it’s a frum guy who presumably goes to shul it is exceedingly likely that it is already becoming widespread in the frum community as we speak.

Feel free to take a different position but it doesn’t do you any good to lump mine together with the wacko positions.

[ari3]

I see pre-Purim denial mode is back in full force once again. When there’s 2500 new cases a day in NY/NJ, and there’s more new cases in the US yesterday than there was 25 days before, you kinda don’t need a 60 Minutes investigation to believe that someone in Lakewood may in fact have corona. AFAIK, the Ihr Hatorah™️ coronavirus exemption is still not yet in effect.

Yes, the imaginary statistics that you and others are relying on. Before Purim we had similarly scientific reasoning, Lakewood is Ir Hatorah, Lakewood doesn’t have any cases, it only affects modox, etc.

You can make your point without your sick attitude

[SSLPhD]

nursing homes across the tristate area were not able to test everyone back in late March and April when they had their outbreaks.  They are all testing all staff and residents now. Many of them are asymptomatic and are showing up positive.

Back to this.  If people are asymptomatic and showing up positive now, how do we know they're contagious?  If a symptomatic person recovers, they are considered non-contagious.  If an asymptomatic person got it two months ago, and remained asymptomatic the entire time, would they not also become non-contagious at some point?  How exactly would we know when an asymptomatic person was infected and if they are indeed contagious?

[avromie7]

Back to this.  If people are asymptomatic and showing up positive now, how do we know they're contagious?  If a symptomatic person recovers, they are considered non-contagious.  If an asymptomatic person got it two months ago, and remained asymptomatic the entire time, would they not also become non-contagious at some point?  How exactly would we know when an asymptomatic person was infected and if they are indeed contagious?

If they have antibodies they're probably not contagious.