Do you know someone who has had Coronavirus after Pesach?

[avromie7]

Many of us were predicting this, but thankfully we were wrong until now. I will happily eat crow because I truly expected to see more cases at an earlier date. I think we can control this outbreak but people need to be cautious again.

+1
Unfortunately it's going to be harder this time around thanks to the extended lockdown.

ETA: and we didn't give everyone much time to "air out".

[Yard sale]

Many of us were predicting this, but thankfully we were wrong until now. I will happily eat crow because I truly expected to see more cases at an earlier date. I think we can control this outbreak but people need to be cautious again.

I guess we are going to find out fairly soon if Lakewood mostly has herd immunity or not. The reality is that people will not be social distancing over the next few days. We can certainly anticipate some infections. It is unreasonable to assume that everyone in Lakewood is immune or has had it. If there are new positive individuals circulating in Lakewood especially in settings with large crowds it is reasonable to assume that there will be some cases.

The real question is if it is possible to have a large outbreak in Lakewwod even remotely similar to April, and I still believe that that it is not . It’s certainly worth keeping a very close eye on the situation now that we do see individuals bringing it back from other states, and it is prudent for those who are immunocompromised to take some precautions, but there are no indications that a large outbreak is in the works. Let’s keep a close eye on the numbers and see what evolves.

[S209]

I guess we are going to find out fairly soon if Lakewood mostly has herd immunity or not. The reality is that people will not be social distancing over the next few days. We can certainly anticipate some infections. It is unreasonable to assume that everyone in Lakewood is immune or has had it. If there are new positive individuals circulating in Lakewood especially in settings with large crowds it is reasonable to assume that there will be some cases.

The real question is if it is possible to have a large outbreak in Lakewwod even remotely similar to April, and I still believe that that it is not . It’s certainly worth keeping a very close eye on the situation now that we do see individuals bringing it back from other states, and it is prudent for those who are immunocompromised to take some precautions, but there are no indications that a large outbreak is in the works. Let’s keep a close eye on the numbers and see what evolves.

So, that’s your opinion. Now, should we be risking lives (by *not* taking basic precautions i.e. masks) based on your opinion? You be the judge.

Wait and see isn’t really an intelligent option when you have the ability to change a possible adverse outcome.

[Euclid]

So, that’s your opinion. Now, should we be risking lives (by *not* taking basic precautions i.e. masks) based on your opinion? You be the judge.

Wait and see isn’t really an intelligent option when you have the ability to change a possible adverse outcome.

I think @Yard sale is stating the practical, realistic viewpoint. Let's be honest, no one is changing their behavior, definitely not over the next week or two. They'll unfortunately need to see it to believe it.

[S209]

I think @Yard sale is stating the practical, realistic viewpoint. Let's be honest, no one is changing their behavior, definitely not over the next week or two. They'll unfortunately need to see it to believe it.

No one? I don’t think that’s true. A majority of people? That can be remedied by people in positions of power strictly enforcing restrictions.

No need to face reality if we can effect change to that reality.

[Euclid]

No one? I don’t think that’s true. A majority of people? That can be remedied by people in positions of power strictly enforcing restrictions.

No need to face reality if we can effect change to that reality.

I also would like a million dollars.

Do you honestly think that people in positions of power are going to say/do anything?

[YitzyS]

I also would like a million dollars.

Do you honestly think that people in positions of power are going to say/do anything?

They may not be aware of what's going on. Every person should talk to those in power.

[Yard sale]

So, that’s your opinion. Now, should we be risking lives (by *not* taking basic precautions i.e. masks) based on your opinion? You be the judge.

Wait and see isn’t really an intelligent option when you have the ability to change a possible adverse outcome.

It’s just not going to happen. Talk masks and most people in Lakewood will look at you blankly. Like it or not we will be seeing the extent of Lakewood’s immunity.

That is the reality on the ground, but as far as what ought to ideally be doing, I get the position that small precautions that are easy to take might make sense at this point but to be honest with you there is a reasonable, acceptable  degree of risk we take in going about our daily lives. Masks are an imposition. They are uncomfortable, they restrict one’s oxygen and they stifle communication.

There are those who will say if we can potentially save even a single live how can we consider convenience? Doesn’t Halacha put saving a life above all else? However, that’s not the way we live our lives nor is it what Halacha mandates. We do not abandon going to the country or driving hundreds of miles to vacation destinations (even when there are closer alternatives that just aren’t as convenient) or family simchos, often late at night despite the fact that  statistically lives of bochurim, and sometimes families are lost every year on these trips (I.e. recently in New Square). This is historically the way Klal Yisroel has approached this, and there are numerous examples of this.

There is a reasonable risk that we take in our normal daily lives and at this point I think normal healthy people living their lives without masks in areas with low virus presence falls well within those parameters. An immunocompromised person or senior with a higher risk profile might decide that a mask is warranted at this point and that may be the right thing for their situation and hishtadlus. But imposing safety precautions on an entire population to address a risk that is at this point low is not in keeping with the way we are meant to run our lives, and have been running our lives for generations. Does the situation change if there is Ch”v a huge uptick? Yes. But imposing measures because “what if there is an uptick, won’t we regret not taking precautions?” is just not warranted.

[Euclid]

It’s just not going to happen. Talk masks and most people in Lakewood will look at you blankly. Like it or not we will be seeing the extent of Lakewood’s immunity.

That is the reality on the ground, but as far as what ought to ideally be doing, I get the position that small precautions that are easy to take might make sense at this point but to be honest with you there is a reasonable, acceptable  degree of risk we take in going about our daily lives. Masks are an imposition. They are uncomfortable, they restrict one’s oxygen and they stifle communication.

There are those who will say if we can potentially save even a single live how can we consider convenience? Doesn’t Halacha put saving a life above all else? However, that’s not the way we live our lives nor is it what Halacha mandates. We do not abandon going to the country or driving hundreds of miles to vacation destinations (even when there are closer alternatives that just aren’t as convenient) or family simchos, often late at night despite the fact that  statistically lives of bochurim, and sometimes families are lost every year on these trips (I.e. recently in New Square). This is historically the way Klal Yisroel has approached this, and there are numerous examples of this.

There is a reasonable risk that we take in our normal daily lives and at this point I think normal healthy people living their lives without masks in areas with low virus presence falls well within those parameters. An immunocompromised person or senior with a higher risk profile might decide that a mask is warranted at this point and that may be the right thing for their situation and hishtadlus. But imposing safety precautions on an entire population to address a risk that is at this point low is not in keeping with the way we are meant to run our lives, and have been running our lives for generations. Does the situation change if there is Ch”v a huge uptick? Yes. But imposing measures because “what if there is an uptick, won’t we regret not taking precautions?” is just not warranted.

Moving minyanim back outdoors would seem to be a relatively small precaution with the most bang for the buck...

[S209]

It’s just not going to happen. Talk masks and most people in Lakewood will look at you blankly. Like it or not we will be seeing the extent of Lakewood’s immunity.

That is the reality on the ground, but as far as what ought to ideally be doing, I get the position that small precautions that are easy to take might make sense at this point but to be honest with you there is a reasonable, acceptable  degree of risk we take in going about our daily lives. Masks are an imposition. They are uncomfortable, they restrict one’s oxygen and they stifle communication.

There are those who will say if we can potentially save even a single live how can we consider convenience? Doesn’t Halacha put saving a life above all else? However, that’s not the way we live our lives nor is it what Halacha mandates. We do not abandon going to the country or driving hundreds of miles to vacation destinations (even when there are closer alternatives that just aren’t as convenient) or family simchos, often late at night despite the fact that  statistically lives of bochurim, and sometimes families are lost every year on these trips (I.e. recently in New Square). This is historically the way Klal Yisroel has approached this, and there are numerous examples of this.

There is a reasonable risk that we take in our normal daily lives and at this point I think normal healthy people living their lives without masks in areas with low virus presence falls well within those parameters. An immunocompromised person or senior with a higher risk profile might decide that a mask is warranted at this point and that may be the right thing for their situation and hishtadlus. But imposing safety precautions on an entire population to address a risk that is at this point low is not in keeping with the way we are meant to run our lives, and have been running our lives for generations. Does the situation change if there is Ch”v a huge uptick? Yes. But imposing measures because “what if there is an uptick, won’t we regret not taking precautions?” is just not warranted.

I need the hamster wheel here @CountValentine

We are once again at *potentially* the beginning of an outbreak. No, it’s not the same as cars or the flu or all that good stuff. Yes, we should all be wearing masks in crowded indoor spaces, davening outdoors, and limiting crowd sizes or “bubbles”. False equivalency: your straw man argument, as usual, is ridiculous and tiresome. You want to wait until it’s too late again? Once there’s a full on outbreak it’s too late. We’ve seen that happen already. TO US.

There’s no what if. There is an uptick. Last time it took a couple of weeks max before dozens died and hundreds were hospitalized. Car accidents, my eye.

[CountValentine]

I need the hamster wheel here @CountValentine

[S209]

Here’s an easy way to outsource the question to a knowledgeable third party whether people wearing masks amid a potential COVID outbreak is akin to not driving anywhere, ever or if it is like reasonable restrictions (nobody under 21 drive in the country, no speeding or driving drunk, seatbelts, etc.)

Ask a doctor the following 2 questions:
Do you think we can drive to the country weekly?
Do you think we should wear a mask now after seeing this uptick?

If all their advice is just to CYA then the answer will be the same. If they use their educated and informed decision making (which we always trust) to give different answers to the two questions then we can assume that the two risk-reward trade offs are NOT the same. Fair?

[aygart]

So my sons school and camp are closed already because a school teacher got corona.

This rebbi is family with my married daughter who is now quarantining due to exposure to the same person, so due to my personal knowledge I will temporarily step out of my DDF quarantine and give over some information here.

I suspect that this is the same origin as this

BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.

If it is then I know that the entire family quarantined in FL for 2 weeks before coming. This would mean that it was contracted either in transit or after arriving in Lakewood.

No one? I don’t think that’s true. A majority of people? That can be remedied by people in positions of power strictly enforcing restrictions.

No need to face reality if we can effect change to that reality.

They may not be aware of what's going on. Every person should talk to those in power.

The ones who can effect change are the the doctors. The letter they put out yesterday is a start but will not get anyone to change much. Everyone will say that they were not with anyone in FL. If they come out strongly about this it can change directions quickly, at least for some of the more at risk population who has gotten more lax recently.

It will definitely be much harder because of this

+1
Unfortunately it's going to be harder this time around thanks to the extended lockdown.

ETA: and we didn't give everyone much time to "air out".

[avromie7]

The ones who can effect change are the the doctors. The letter they put out yesterday is a start but will not get anyone to change much. Everyone will say that they were not with anyone in FL. If they come out strongly about this it can change directions quickly, at least for some of the more at risk population who has gotten more lax recently.

It will definitely be much harder because of this

This.
While posting on DDF can bring awareness, anyone who thinks people will make any reasonable change based on it is out of their mind. I suspect the doctors are waiting for evidence of community spread and/or a larger number of new cases before pushing restrictions.

[Kobe Bryant]

So, that’s your opinion. Now, should we be risking lives (by *not* taking basic precautions i.e. masks) based on your opinion? You be the judge.

Wait and see isn’t really an intelligent option when you have the ability to change a possible adverse outcome.

I think anyone being intellectually honest will agree that wearing a mask is a small tradoff (and not an imposition).

[good sam]

That's a lot of yellow and light orange. When will we start talking precautions? When it's dark orange? Red?

[Euclid]

I suspect that this is the same origin as this
If it is then I know that the entire family quarantined in FL for 2 weeks before coming. This would mean that it was contracted either in transit or after arriving in Lakewood.

Good to hear that they were being responsible, but it's still possible that the 2 week FL quarantine wasn't sealed off enough.

[Yard sale]

This rebbi is family with my married daughter who is now quarantining due to exposure to the same person, so due to my personal knowledge I will temporarily step out of my DDF quarantine and give over some information here.

I suspect that this is the same origin as this
If it is then I know that the entire family quarantined in FL for 2 weeks before coming. This would mean that it was contracted either in transit or after arriving in Lakewood.

If they quarantined in Florida like most people quarantined in Lakewood that’s not saying much. What are the odds that they contacted it in Lakewood rather than catching it in Florida despite the quarantine, or in the airport? I imagine minuscule.

[PlatinumGuy]

I think pretty much all of the staff at MCO had Corona, but also people tend to overestimate their version of lockdown. Additionally there are documented cases of people who developed symptoms only after 14 days

[Yard sale]

That's a lot of yellow and light orange. When will we start talking precautions? When it's dark orange? Red?

When the orange and red amounts to meaningful numbers not just more or less than before