Author Topic: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?  (Read 51774 times)

Offline grodnoking

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #120 on: May 17, 2020, 11:40:15 AM »
I wonder if this will spark any sort of Jewish exodus from NYC.
I know People who planned on moving have moved their moving dates up.
I'm not who you think I am.

Offline Iz

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #121 on: May 17, 2020, 11:46:52 AM »
I wonder if this will spark any sort of Jewish exodus from NYC.
Doubtful that there will be anything meaningful
I know People who planned on moving have moved their moving dates up.
Hard to believe that it's a significant number, relative to the population. If it opens up a few houses for people to buy there, and the real estate market loosens up a bit, that would be very good news to people who JUST HAVE TO live in NYC.
Don't forget there are very strong anchors in NYC for certain people: specific yeshivos and kehilos.

Online Sam Finkelstein

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #122 on: May 17, 2020, 11:50:52 AM »
I have a relative in LA who is seriously considering a move to Miami.
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Offline how

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #123 on: May 17, 2020, 12:05:44 PM »
And as usual, when the numbers don’t suit you, Cuomo simply manipulates the numbers. NY quietly switched its method of reporting nursing home deaths on May 3rd to look far lower, by hiding any death where the patient died after being taken to the hospital. Now only if they die at the nursing home premises are they counted as a nursing home death, unlike every other State. Suddenly their nursing home stats are looking better. And of course this means that more deaths are claimed to have come from the “general population”.

https://dailycaller.com/2020/05/15/new-york-coronavirus-reporting-nursing-home-deaths-undercounting/
Until April 17 he only counted those who died in the hospital...

Offline mgarfin

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #124 on: May 17, 2020, 12:27:11 PM »
This has been bugging me a few days...

By the time we locked down NYC did it help anything?
It seems as by the time we closed schools, Shula, encouraged social distance....it had already spread through the community and struck anyone it can.

Definitely, in the Jewish community, it seems so

I can understand that if we had gone on a lockdown 2-4 weeks earlier we would have ended up similar to Isreal.

But at the point, it was done who did we save?

Let's take BP Brooklyn as an example. It seems as 60-70% of ppl have antibodies, meaning they had the virus at some point. The rest aren't necessarily ppl that stayed home or more locked down.
What I lack data is on the elderly population and its infection/antibody rate.

P.S. this may deserve its own thread
 

Offline S209

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #125 on: May 17, 2020, 12:41:02 PM »
This has been bugging me a few days...

By the time we locked down NYC did it help anything?
It seems as by the time we closed schools, Shula, encouraged social distance....it had already spread through the community and struck anyone it can.

Definitely, in the Jewish community, it seems so

I can understand that if we had gone on a lockdown 2-4 weeks earlier we would have ended up similar to Isreal.

But at the point, it was done who did we save?

Let's take BP Brooklyn as an example. It seems as 60-70% of ppl have antibodies, meaning they had the virus at some point. The rest aren't necessarily ppl that stayed home or more locked down.
What I lack data is on the elderly population and its infection/antibody rate.

P.S. this may deserve its own thread
 
It’s been mentioned numerous times. Even if we didn’t manage to contain the spread well, and 70% of people were exposed/infected, those people were all infectious at some point, so that could have easily exposed 100%. Herd immunity only protects AFTER the original people are not infectious. Especially for the more vulnerable, who on the whole locked up earlier and more tightly, we may have inadvertently done exactly the right thing- achieved general herd immunity with a minimal amount of deaths.

Of course, it could have been a whole lot better, because there were a horrible amount of deaths.. but relative to what could have been, we may have actually done a fantastic job. Only real hindsight (think a year or more) will give us the answer.

It’s completely impossible to know any of this now.
Quote from: YitzyS
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Offline S209

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #126 on: May 17, 2020, 12:46:43 PM »
Let's take BP Brooklyn as an example. It seems as 60-70% of ppl have antibodies, meaning they had the virus at some point.
Where in the world are you getting your data from? From Crown Heights they’re seeing a number like 40%. In Lakewood, from a drive that only accepted people with real symptoms and exposure (confirmed positive test preferred) only about 80% had antibodies.

From here we’re seeing 60% (tiny sample size obviously)
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Offline S209

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Offline mgarfin

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #128 on: May 17, 2020, 12:52:18 PM »
It’s been mentioned numerous times. Even if we didn’t manage to contain the spread well, and 70% of people were exposed/infected, those people were all infectious at some point, so that could have easily exposed 100%. Herd immunity only protects AFTER the original people are not infectious. Especially for the more vulnerable, who on the whole locked up earlier and more tightly, we may have inadvertently done exactly the right thing- achieved general herd immunity with a minimal amount of deaths.

Of course, it could have been a whole lot better, because there were a horrible amount of deaths.. but relative to what could have been, we may have actually done a fantastic job. Only real hindsight (think a year or more) will give us the answer.

It’s completely impossible to know any of this now.

So maybe at the point, we went into lockdown we should have only locked the vulnerable?

Why isn't the 30% without antibodies getting infected now? We have lots of ppl still testing positive?

Offline simple26

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #129 on: May 17, 2020, 12:53:38 PM »
Where in the world are you getting your data from? From Crown Heights they’re seeing a number like 40%. In Lakewood, from a drive that only accepted people with real symptoms and exposure (confirmed positive test preferred) only about 80% had antibodies.

From here we’re seeing 60% (tiny sample size obviously)
These are supposedly the numbers in Bobov one yeshiva 66 percent the other 70 

Offline mgarfin

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #130 on: May 17, 2020, 12:54:05 PM »
Where in the world are you getting your data from? From Crown Heights they’re seeing a number like 40%. In Lakewood, from a drive that only accepted people with real symptoms and exposure (confirmed positive test preferred) only about 80% had antibodies.

From here we’re seeing 60% (tiny sample size obviously)

Inside stats at 2 clinics in BP doing lots of the testing

Offline Iz

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #131 on: May 17, 2020, 12:54:35 PM »
These are supposedly the numbers in Bobov one yeshiva 66 percent the other 70
"supposedly" doesn't cut it for @S209   

Offline Lurker

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #132 on: May 17, 2020, 12:56:42 PM »
Let's take BP Brooklyn as an example. It seems as 60-70% of ppl have antibodies, meaning they had the virus at some point.

60-70% of the people who got tested. That's a very, very small sample size, skewed heavily towards people who thought they had symptoms and were more likely to test positive for anti-bodies.
Failing at maintaining Lurker status.

Offline mgarfin

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #133 on: May 17, 2020, 12:57:27 PM »
"supposedly" doesn't cut it for @S209

Lets put it this way
there is a 50-75% with antibodies in BP.
No new infections (even though BP is fully reopened)

Offline Iz

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #134 on: May 17, 2020, 12:58:27 PM »
BP is fully reopened
Really? Shuls, stores, schools?
And, don't you need 14 days to make such a statement?

Offline mgarfin

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #135 on: May 17, 2020, 12:58:48 PM »
60-70% of the people who got tested. That's a very, very small sample size, skewed heavily towards people who thought they had symptoms and were more likely to test positive for anti-bodies.

Not the case. Many shuls, yeshivas require testing to come. This created a huge influx of all sorts of people getting tested last week
« Last Edit: May 17, 2020, 01:04:14 PM by mgarfin »

Offline mgarfin

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #136 on: May 17, 2020, 01:03:01 PM »
Really? Shuls, stores, schools?

YES almost fully

Shuls, most
stores, many (officially by appointment)
schools, yeshivas many, schools starting this week

In any case, ppl are all over the streets. I observed many of my neighbors that didn't have company for Shabbos in a long time had this week....

Offline Lurker

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #137 on: May 17, 2020, 01:03:42 PM »
Not the case. Many shuls, yeshivas require testing to come. This bout a huge influx of all sorts of ppl getting tested last week

So how many people do you think got tested? How many people didn't bother because they haven't gotten it yet and have no intention of going to shul or yeshiva just yet?
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Offline Iz

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #138 on: May 17, 2020, 01:04:18 PM »
YES almost fully

Shuls, most
stores, many (officially by appointment)
schools, yeshivas many, schools starting this week

In any case, ppl are all over the streets. I observed many of my neighbors that didn't have company for Shabbos in a long time had this week....
Wow, I didn't know that. And here in Lakewood, we're stuck in the Dark Ages.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Will the truth come out how NYC & NYS made blunder after blunder?
« Reply #139 on: May 17, 2020, 01:05:12 PM »
YES almost fully

Shuls, most
stores, many (officially by appointment)
schools, yeshivas many, schools starting this week

In any case, ppl are all over the streets. I observed many of my neighbors that didn't have company for Shabbos in a long time had this week....

There are schools opening this week?
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