Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 22298 times)

Offline ari3

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Is there a second wave?
« on: May 07, 2020, 04:03:09 PM »
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?

Offline mme

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #1 on: May 07, 2020, 04:05:45 PM »
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?
It takes sometime from the reopening till the new cases come out so i guess we can't know yet if the second wave is happening.

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2020, 04:10:33 PM »
It takes sometime from the reopening till the new cases come out so i guess we can't know yet if the second wave is happening.
At this point we are two weeks from certain states reopening and the media has went from calling the governers murderers to simply ignoring the fact that there has not been any real difference in cases reopening or lockdown.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #3 on: May 07, 2020, 04:37:16 PM »
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?

I don't think you'll see an immediate spike. Given the 7-14 day incubation period and the time it would take for the spread to regain traction, I don't think you would see large numbers until 1 month after restrictions are lifted. Personally, the date I'm watching is around June 10th. If the US can get through Memorial Day weekend without completely f-ing everything up, I'll have a certain amount of confidence loosening my family's restrictive protocol. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening, though.
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Offline ari3

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2020, 04:44:09 PM »
I don't think you'll see an immediate spike. Given the 7-14 day incubation period and the time it would take for the spread to regain traction, I don't think you would see large numbers until 1 month after restrictions are lifted. Personally, the date I'm watching is around June 10th. If the US can get through Memorial Day weekend without completely f-ing everything up, I'll have a certain amount of confidence loosening my family's restrictive protocol. I don't have a lot of faith in that happening, though.
How long did it take from purim when it is assumed the major spread happened in our community till total disaster? Less than 2 weeks. The incubation period is 2-14 days probably an average of 5-6 days. If there was going to be this terrible second wave you should be seeing trouble pretty soon.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2020, 04:48:14 PM »
At this point we are two weeks from certain states reopening and the media has went from calling the governers murderers to simply ignoring the fact that there has not been any real difference in cases reopening or lockdown.
I keep seeing this murderer comment but no one has provided a link to a national source, not some talkin head.
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2020, 04:54:11 PM »
I keep seeing this murderer comment but no one has provided a link to a national source, not some talkin head.

It is definitely an exaggeration on my part, but kemp was getting a lot of criticism for opening up and the media is ignoring the fact that there really hasn't been any substantial increase.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2020, 04:57:50 PM »
It is definitely an exaggeration on my part, but kemp was getting a lot of criticism for opening up and the media is ignoring the fact that there really hasn't been any substantial increase.
The problem is I keep seeing it (not you) and wondering where it is coming from.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2020, 04:58:02 PM »
How long did it take from purim when it is assumed the major spread happened in our community till total disaster? Less than 2 weeks. The incubation period is 2-14 days probably an average of 5-6 days. If there was going to be this terrible second wave you should be seeing trouble pretty soon.

That comparison is completely irrelevant, but total disaster was about 2 weeks after Purim. People realized it was super serious 3-5 days after. You have to consider that if the major spread was Purim, the virus was in the community at least the week before, which would account for the hospitalizations that woke everyone up the following week.

Purim is irrelevant, though, because it was an absolute worst case scenario. Even in our communities, you don't find another scenario that allows for a spread of that magnitude. Additionally, there are precautions being taken now, with crowd limits, PPE, social distancing awareness, and high-risk people self-isolating. The spread will definitely take longer and be less explosive than what we experienced in March, when virtually no precautions being taken by anyone.
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2020, 05:01:34 PM »
The problem is I keep seeing it (not you) and wondering where it is coming from.

It came from people on twitter probably

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2020, 05:04:56 PM »
The problem is I keep seeing it (not you) and wondering where it is coming from.

It came from employees of MSM who are employed to take partisan stances and talk in extremes. You consider them talking heads and not journalists. Other people don't make that distinction, because of the logos they represent and who signs their paychecks.
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Online kayef

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #11 on: May 07, 2020, 05:05:51 PM »

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #12 on: May 07, 2020, 05:08:06 PM »

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #13 on: May 07, 2020, 05:08:37 PM »
It came from employees of MSM who are employed to take partisan stances and talk in extremes. You consider them talking heads and not journalists. Other people don't make that distinction, because of the logos they represent and who signs their paychecks.
If someone doesn't make a distinction between Maddow/Hannity and the national news they should have a lifetime stay at home order because they are complete idiots!!!
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #14 on: May 07, 2020, 05:16:24 PM »
If someone doesn't make a distinction between Maddow/Hannity and the national news they should have a lifetime stay at home order because they are complete idiots!!!

I think you'll find that many people don't make that distinction. Unrelated, I think you'll find that many people are complete idiots, too.
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