Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 21985 times)

Online S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #15 on: May 07, 2020, 06:12:06 PM »
Many states have started reopening over the last couple of weeks as well as most of the European countries including many that were very hard hit. One of the big fears of reopening has been the fear of a second wave. While there may be a slight uptick in cases in some of the places that reopened there has not seemingly been as of yet a "second wave" anywhere.

Being that fear of the "the second wave" is the primary justification that our governors are using not to start reopening I thought it would be very timely to ask,

Is there a second wave happening anywhere?
Ironic, since the first (and second, and third. And four hundredth.) time I ever heard the words second wave were on Fox where they were saying ďItís pointless to shut down because whenever we open there will be a second wave!Ē

Is that no longer politically convenient for that side of the debate?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #16 on: May 07, 2020, 06:24:23 PM »
How long did it take from purim when it is assumed the major spread happened in our community till total disaster? Less than 2 weeks. The incubation period is 2-14 days probably an average of 5-6 days. If there was going to be this terrible second wave you should be seeing trouble pretty soon.
By the time purim came it was already spreading like wildfire thru our community and we had no idea. There were already hundreds of people infected, but given the incubation period, the fact that most people assumed they just had a cold, and asymptomatic people no one realized it and purim essentially did what would have otherwise taken a few days.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline JMHO

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Online S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #18 on: May 07, 2020, 06:36:05 PM »
By the time purim came it was already spreading like wildfire thru our community and we had no idea. There were already hundreds of people infected, but given the incubation period, the fact that most people assumed they just had a cold, and asymptomatic people no one realized it and purim essentially did what would have otherwise taken a few days.
I think in Lakewood, a bunch of people from other places spread it around on Purim to hundreds of people, and those people spread it to thousands or tens of thousands over the next week with little to no restrictions.
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Offline ckmk47

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #19 on: May 07, 2020, 07:45:55 PM »
The second wave problem is not just in the reopened areas.  It's from people getting tired of the restrictions and stopping to be vigilant.
Those who know they shouldn't get covid have to remain in self quarantine.  Even though it's a lot like self jail.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #20 on: May 07, 2020, 08:20:16 PM »
I think in Lakewood, a bunch of people from other places spread it around on Purim to hundreds of people, and those people spread it to thousands or tens of thousands over the next week with little to no restrictions.
It's ludicrous to think it wasn't rampant in Lakewood before purim. Purim definitely didn't help, but it didn't start on Purim.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Online S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #21 on: May 07, 2020, 08:20:50 PM »
It's ludicrous to think it wasn't rampant in Lakewood before purim. Purim definitely didn't help, but it didn't start on Purim.
You think thousands had it before Purim, or a handful?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #22 on: May 07, 2020, 08:26:52 PM »
You think thousands had it before Purim, or a handful?
My guess is hundreds, but I have no way to know.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #23 on: May 07, 2020, 08:28:36 PM »
My guess is hundreds, but I have no way to know.
Possibly. I think Purim and the week that followed caused many thousands of not tens of thousands to get infected, and that week, which was the week that most people waffled on, was the most critical week in keeping this thing in check. Letís face it, we whiffed from the top down.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #24 on: May 07, 2020, 08:38:53 PM »


Possibly. I think Purim and the week that followed caused many thousands of not tens of thousands to get infected, and that week, which was the week that most people waffled on, was the most critical week in keeping this thing in check. Letís face it, we whiffed from the top down.

The last week before the lockdown is by definition the week that it spread the most.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #25 on: May 07, 2020, 08:40:29 PM »
It is hard to pinpoint when they don't even know how long it takes to show symptoms.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #26 on: May 07, 2020, 10:19:58 PM »

The last week before the lockdown is by definition the week that it spread the most.
For sure, and that week it spread a ton. My point is by locking down less than one week earlier (when many people were already calling for it, outside of one prominent doctor in Lakewood) we probably would have escaped a tremendous amount of devastation. Probably being the operative word here. All we presumably would have needed to do was not reopen schools, businesses, and shuls after Shabbos, when the real danger was coming to light.
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Offline ari3

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #27 on: May 08, 2020, 01:04:06 AM »
For sure, and that week it spread a ton. My point is by locking down less than one week earlier (when many people were already calling for it, outside of one prominent doctor in Lakewood) we probably would have escaped a tremendous amount of devastation. Probably being the operative word here. All we presumably would have needed to do was not reopen schools, businesses, and shuls after Shabbos, when the real danger was coming to light.
Most of the people were probably infected by then. Additionally it would have been virtually impossible to shut down businesses at that point being that it wasn't mandated by gov't at that point.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #28 on: May 08, 2020, 11:45:42 AM »
Most of the people were probably infected by then. Additionally it would have been virtually impossible to shut down businesses at that point being that it wasn't mandated by gov't at that point.
Why do you say most were probably infected by then? If Rabbanim and doctors would have released a blanket harsh ban through a public letter and phone recordings on all businesses, schools, and shuls that would have stopped things cold turkey. They are NOT to blame but I do think it could have been done theoretically.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2020, 01:43:43 PM »
For sure, and that week it spread a ton. My point is by locking down less than one week earlier (when many people were already calling for it, outside of one prominent doctor in Lakewood) we probably would have escaped a tremendous amount of devastation. Probably being the operative word here. All we presumably would have needed to do was not reopen schools, businesses, and shuls after Shabbos, when the real danger was coming to light.
No one was calling for it. Revisionist history