Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 24969 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #450 on: June 15, 2020, 10:31:04 PM »
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #451 on: June 15, 2020, 10:31:52 PM »
Link?

https://time.com/5849797/protests-coronavirus-test/

With New York City poised to reopen after a more than two-month coronavirus shutdown, officials on Sunday lifted a curfew that was in place amid protests of police brutality and racial injustice. But they also urged that demonstrators be tested for COVID-19.

“Get a test. Get a test,” New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo told people who have been participating in rallies and marches in memory of George Floyd.

He said the state would open 15 testing sites dedicated to protesters so they can get results quickly.

“I would act as if you were exposed, and I would tell people you are interacting with, assume I am positive for the virus,” Cuomo added.

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #452 on: June 15, 2020, 10:32:40 PM »



C. Yes, it would be interesting to see if large outdoor gatherings can spread the virus, but the riots and protests are not necessarily helpful in answering that question.  Unlike most gatherings, the protesters often didn't know each other or record each others' names, so impossible to know who was near whom. 


This is the exact point of all those Apple and Google initiatives that have been capturing headlines for months. Ha!
Israel did a good job thanks to cell phone tracking, rav kavya tracking, credit card tracking and the fact that israelis are scared of their govt.
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #453 on: June 15, 2020, 10:34:26 PM »
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
The only albeit minute possibility is if being outdoors with fresh air and a breeze really helps more then we think.
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Offline etech0

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #454 on: June 15, 2020, 10:35:34 PM »
The only albeit minute possibility is if being outdoors with fresh air and a breeze really helps more then we think.
Or if we really do have herd immunity after all
Workflowy. You won't know what you're missing until you try it.

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #455 on: June 15, 2020, 10:42:50 PM »
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?
Uptick? Yes. Huge spike? Unlikely. Remember that for people to spread the virus they have to actually have the virus themselves currently. And the infection rate in NY is the lowest in the country right now.

Other places where the virus is still is in its initial spread and are having large gatherings are biological Bombs waiting to happen.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #456 on: June 15, 2020, 10:45:32 PM »
Uptick? Yes. Huge spike? Unlikely. Remember that for people to spread the virus they have to actually have the virus themselves currently. And the infection rate in NY is the lowest in the country right now.
An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
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Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #457 on: June 15, 2020, 10:48:24 PM »
An outrageous number would be 50% of the population has been infected in NY. How many millions does that leave?
Currently the amount of people infected in NY is a very low number for a state with 19 million people. So the odds of lots of people at protests being positive and spreading the virus is not so likely. Where did I say herd immunity?

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #458 on: June 15, 2020, 10:58:37 PM »
Currently the amount of people infected in NY is a very low number for a state with 19 million people. So the odds of lots of people at protests being positive and spreading the virus is not so likely. Where did I say herd immunity?
You didn't say herd immunity and I never said you did. My point is there are millions that have yet to be infected. Large gatherings IMHO will be feeding ground for them.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #459 on: June 15, 2020, 11:01:21 PM »
You didn't say herd immunity and I never said you did. My point is there are millions that have yet to be infected. Large gatherings IMHO will be feeding ground for them.
And my point is that people have to have the virus to infect other people. And in NY it’s not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesn’t know that they do.

Offline username

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #460 on: June 15, 2020, 11:03:47 PM »
Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?

I would not be surprised either way.
There seems to be so much about this virus that is not understood.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #461 on: June 15, 2020, 11:04:10 PM »
Another good question. If contact tracers or other people are trying to determine the answers to these questions they will need to compare data between who was at these events and who subsequently contracted the virus.


Right, and you can easily see what an enormous project that would be.
But the contact tracers are not trying to answer those general questions - Do big weddings spread covid? - but rather they're focusing on trying to stop the spread of the virus. 

Here's how they work.  Someone tests positive for the virus, and that info is sent to a tracer.  The tracer calls the patient, and asks them to remember the names and contact info for everyone they were near since 2 days before their symptoms started.  Then they contact those secondary sources, and tell them that they've been near someone who has covid, and that they should either isolate, quarantine, get tested, etc. 

This is a big enough job!  They're not focusing on answering general questions about how the virus spreads, though perhaps in the future the data they collect will be analyzed for that.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #462 on: June 15, 2020, 11:06:17 PM »
And my point is that people have to have the virus to infect other people. And in NY it’s not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesn’t know that they do.
Are there millions getting tested every day to see if they have it?
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Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #463 on: June 15, 2020, 11:09:30 PM »


Right, and you can easily see what an enormous project that would be.
But the contact tracers are not trying to answer those general questions - Do big weddings spread covid? - but rather they're focusing on trying to stop the spread of the virus. 

Here's how they work.  Someone tests positive for the virus, and that info is sent to a tracer.  The tracer calls the patient, and asks them to remember the names and contact info for everyone they were near since 2 days before their symptoms started.  Then they contact those secondary sources, and tell them that they've been near someone who has covid, and that they should either isolate, quarantine, get tested, etc. 

This is a big enough job!  They're not focusing on answering general questions about how the virus spreads, though perhaps in the future the data they collect will be analyzed for that.
You still didn't answer my questions:
1 how will amy of this help if there is no enforced quarantine which includes the patient and his household being in a complete bubble?

2 You admit that contact tracing is a big job. Is there any reasonable way that it can be deployed at a large enough scale, containing enough cases to be effective?
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Offline Eb228

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #464 on: June 15, 2020, 11:14:13 PM »
...or how about large indoor rallies?

Does anyone believe there won't be an uptick in cases with these mass gatherings especially where they are not wearing masks?

Wow was someone desperate to bring Trump bashing to this thread