Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 24968 times)

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #465 on: June 15, 2020, 11:15:54 PM »
Wow was someone desperate to bring Trump bashing to this thread
You owe him a thank you. He's just trying to unmask the koolaid
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #466 on: June 15, 2020, 11:16:52 PM »
Wow was someone desperate to bring Trump bashing to this thread
I have seen many protest with very few masks. That will be a breading ground. Indoor large gatherings will be worse. You don't move the goalposts!!!
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #467 on: June 15, 2020, 11:18:09 PM »
I have seen many protest with very few masks. That will be a breading ground. Indoor large gatherings will be worse. You don't move the goalposts!!!
A couple of rally's  are nothing compared to the scale of protests.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #468 on: June 15, 2020, 11:20:15 PM »
A couple of rally's  are nothing compared to the scale of protests.
I agree 100%. Worse I mean easy to contact the virus in a closed situation as compared to outside.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #469 on: June 15, 2020, 11:22:09 PM »
You still didn't answer my questions:
1 how will amy of this help if there is no enforced quarantine which includes the patient and his household being in a complete bubble?

2 You admit that contact tracing is a big job. Is there any reasonable way that it can be deployed at a large enough scale, containing enough cases to be effective?

Time will tell.  It has not been done before, and nobody knows whether or not it will work.  Stay tuned...

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #470 on: June 15, 2020, 11:29:59 PM »
Time will tell.  It has not been done before, and nobody knows whether or not it will work.  Stay tuned...
I dont think we need time to tell.
The CDC admits that interview based tracing cant be scaled to effectiveness for the entire country and any survielince measures would require a change to the fourth amendment or some special circumstances loophole around it. Either way you would know when it happens.

After a bit of research I found this.
https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/10007-would-covid-19-digital-contact-tracing-programs

Most of the CDC, WHO etc statements are basically "posture gesticulating" like all those companies that emailed "were all in this together, etc"
« Last Edit: June 15, 2020, 11:39:02 PM by Mikes@Micro »
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Offline Euclid

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Is there a second wave?
« Reply #471 on: June 16, 2020, 12:29:35 AM »
I dont think we need time to tell.
The CDC admits that interview based tracing cant be scaled to effectiveness for the entire country and any survielince measures would require a change to the fourth amendment or some special circumstances loophole around it. Either way you would know when it happens.

After a bit of research I found this.
https://www.law.upenn.edu/live/news/10007-would-covid-19-digital-contact-tracing-programs

Most of the CDC, WHO etc statements are basically "posture gesticulating" like all those companies that emailed "were all in this together, etc"
Based on the research I've done (a lot), roughly 90% of manual contact tracing is low hanging fruit, i.e. the infected either knows the location or the person; the problem is the other 10%. There's hope that the Google Apple Exposure Notification framework will free up the manual contact tracers to focus on the "hard" 10% which require in depth interviews; GAEN will allow the other 90% to be notified in a semi-automated fashion.

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #472 on: June 16, 2020, 01:02:28 AM »
Based on the research I've done (a lot), roughly 90% of manual contact tracing is low hanging fruit, i.e. the infected either knows the location or the person; the problem is the other 10%. There's hope that the Google Apple Exposure Notification framework will free up the manual contact tracers to focus on the "hard" 10% which require in depth interviews; GAEN will allow the other 90% to be notified in a semi-automated fashion.
Does all contact need tracing? For example everyone passed in a park trail or only those on a city sidewalk or only those in a large supermarket or only family members whom are sharing a house?

Assuming any and all contacts need to be informed, I would flip the numbers around. The patient may be able to list his cousin who stopped by his house but probably would be able to tick off everyone at his (outdoor) minyan.

Also as per 4th ammendment laws people would need to manually download an app and even then the frameworks is legally dubious.
Most people I know would never actually install this app either bc theh dont know about it or bc they are not concerned. This is before you factor in frum people without smartphones or unfiltered smartphones.

You would have a very small minority using the app.

To summarize: I dont understand the numbers and the Google apple framework will never work and Israeli style cell tracking is illegal.
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Offline Euclid

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #473 on: June 16, 2020, 01:33:04 AM »

Does all contact need tracing? For example everyone passed in a park trail or only those on a city sidewalk or only those in a large supermarket or only family members whom are sharing a house?


Assuming any and all contacts need to be informed, I would flip the numbers around. The patient may be able to list his cousin who stopped by his house but probably wouldn't be able to tick off everyone at his (outdoor) minyan.

No, only people who have had an epidemiologically significant encounter will need to be notified. Based on current knowledge of COVID-19 this means >= 5 minutes at a distance of <=6 feet (these parameters are flexible based on the setting, e.g. outdoors vs. indoors). The bulk of such encounters are usually sussed out with minimal effort by the contact tracer, however it is time consuming to actually collate and inform all these people. The hope is that the GAEN framework will allow this part to be automated.


Also as per 4th amendment laws people would need to manually download an app and even then the frameworks is legally dubious.
Most people I know would never actually install this app either bc they dont know about it or bc they are not concerned. This is before you factor in frum people without smartphones or unfiltered smartphones.


You would have a very small minority using the app.


To summarize: I dont understand the numbers and the Google apple framework will never work and Israeli style cell tracking is illegal.

The GAEN framework specification was developed with privacy being the biggest and most important factor. It works completely differently than the Israeli model of location tracking; rather it operates by keeping a log (stored locally on the phone) of which phone (identified by a random ID) you were near for an epidemiologically significant encounter (this is done via Bluetooth Low Energy, so it has minimal power consumption). Google and Apple even specified that any app that wishes to use this framework for their app will be unable to use the location services of the cellphone (and the only entities that will get permission to use the framework will be legitimate public health entities.)


The actual reporting of a positive diagnosis and uploading of the log is fully opt-in, and can only be done with consent of the infected person. And the same in reverse, all processing of the possible exposures someone had is done locally on their phone.

While GAEN framework was developed for Android and iOS devices, it isn't limited to them. The specification is open and can be used in simple, cheap Bluetooth wearables (e.g. a wristband); in fact, Germany is in talks to distribute millions of these bands to elderly and poor people in time for the fall.
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 01:50:33 AM by Euclid »

Offline Mikes@Micro

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #474 on: June 16, 2020, 01:53:11 AM »

No, only people who have had an epidemiologically significant encounter will need to be notified. Based on current knowledge of COVID-19 this means >= 5 minutes at a distance of <=6 feet (these parameters are flexible based on the setting, e.g. outdoors vs. indoors). The bulk of such encounters are usually sussed out with minimal effort by the contact tracer, however it is time consuming to actually collate and inform all these people. The hope is that the GAEN framework will allow this part to be automated.
This makes sense although once you factor in minyanim and the subway (which NYC promised not to allow tracking) just to name two this becomes impractical very quickly

Quote
[/size]
The GAEN framework specification was developed with privacy being the biggest and most important factor. It works completely differently than the Israeli model of location tracking; rather it operates by keeping a log of which phone (identified by a random ID) you were near for an epidemiologically significant encounter (this is done via Bluetooth Low Energy, so it has minimal power consumption). Google and Apple even specified that any app that wishes to use this framework for their app will be unable to use the location services of the cellphone (and the only entities that will get permission to use the framework will be legitimate public health entities.)


The actual reporting of a positive diagnosis and uploading of the log is fully opt-in, and can only be done with consent of the infected person. And the same in reverse, all processing of the possible exposures someone had is done locally on their phone.

While GAEN framework was developed for Android and iOS devices, it isn't limited to them. The specification is open and can be used in simple, cheap Bluetooth wearables (e.g. a wristband); in fact, Germany is in talks to distribute millions of these bands to elderly and poor people in time for the fall.

The app may not be platform specific but if you know anything about the available options you will understand why it would not work on flip phones. (There is a great DDF thread called Revive the flip phone)

The framework was designed to be implemented by individual apps, Google and Apple never plan on releasing their own apps. The idea is for government health agencys to make apps using their framework. As per the CDC website and every other law review website I have found this will have to be done by individual states not on a federal level which the CDC writes (read through their documents carefully) will essentially negate any benefit bc we dont have border control between states (Some US history could shed light on this. When being founded some advocated to essentially have different countries)

In other words the CDC admits such tracing wont work period.

The idea of giving out bluetooth bracelets is certainly intriguing and could be extremely effective if deployed at a Federal level but is entirely impractical.
I DO NOT KNOW PERSONALLY KNOW OF A SINGLE PERSON WHO WOULD VOLUNTEER TO WEAR SUCH A BRACELET regardless if the govt claims they are not being tracked.
(Not to mention shabbos)
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Offline Euclid

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #475 on: June 16, 2020, 02:09:30 AM »
This makes sense although once you factor in minyanim and the subway (which NYC promised not to allow tracking) just to name two this becomes impractical very quickly
This isn't the kind of tracking that NYC was talking about; this isn't location tracking. I wouldn't even call it tracking at all; your Bluetooth device is just storing in its memory all the devices it encountered for a set amount of time. What you do with that data is entirely up to you.

The app may not be platform specific but if you know anything about the available options you will understand why it would not work on flip phones. (There is a great DDF thread called Revive the flip phone)

The framework was designed to be implemented by individual apps, Google and Apple never plan on releasing their own apps. The idea is for government health agencys to make apps using their framework. As per the CDC website and every other law review website I have found this will have to be done by individual states not on a federal level which the CDC writes (read through their documents carefully) will essentially negate any benefit bc we dont have border control between states (Some US history could shed light on this. When being founded some advocated to essentially have different countries)

In other words the CDC admits such tracing wont work period.
The current medical opinion is that they only need ~60% of usage for this to be effective. While having a single federal program would definitely make it easier, the vast majority of exposures are done in a regional setting, and most neighboring states are already working with each other to combat Covid-19. They can (and will) expand these efforts to include contact tracing. Also, the varied state programs can be developed with interoperability in mind.

The idea of giving out bluetooth bracelets is certainly intriguing and could be extremely effective if deployed at a Federal level but is entirely impractical.
I DO NOT KNOW PERSONALLY KNOW OF A SINGLE PERSON WHO WOULD VOLUNTEER TO WEAR SUCH A BRACELET regardless if the govt claims they are not being tracked.
(Not to mention shabbos)
I think you're too focused on our community; we already see that our communities are (and were!) flouting medical advice, so I agree they wouldn't want to opt in to this. However, our communities make up an extremely minute portion of the US population, and really would have no impact on these tracing efforts in large. Anyways, arguably, tracing in our communities is even easier since we are so intertwined - you can just send out a text on the neighborhood/shul chat ;)


Contact tracing doesn't need to be perfect, it's just one of the tools in the toolbox to keep the R0 below 1.

"Don't let perfection be the enemy of good. --Voltaire"
                                                                  --Rabbi Frand
« Last Edit: June 16, 2020, 02:21:13 AM by Euclid »

Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #476 on: June 16, 2020, 06:00:03 AM »
itís not likely at this point that someone has the virus and doesnít know that they do.
Seriously?
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Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #477 on: June 16, 2020, 07:04:58 AM »
It's been 5 weeks since this thread was started.

I think we all know the answer. Social distancing went from little to non-existent in many places during this time.

Offline Ergel

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #478 on: June 16, 2020, 07:42:15 AM »
It's been 5 weeks since this thread was started.

I think we all know the answer. Social distancing went from little to non-existent in many places during this time.
Past performance (of small sample size) is guarantee of future results!!
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Offline YankyDoodle

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #479 on: June 16, 2020, 10:19:25 AM »
In my hospital today there were 6 OR cases cancelled due to asymptomatic patients Testing positive for COVID on random pre-op testing... that is not a good sign.