Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 24943 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #495 on: June 17, 2020, 12:30:43 PM »
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
Hopefully it will be nowhere as bad as the first wave. That has been completely devastating. Worse than I thought.
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #496 on: June 17, 2020, 12:32:40 PM »
Hopefully it will be nowhere as bad as the first wave. That has been completely devastating. Worse than I thought.
Worse than most people thought, but better than most models predicted.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #497 on: June 17, 2020, 12:35:47 PM »
Worse than most people thought, but better than most models predicted.
Models change all the time. The way it is going now the models were right or on the low side unless you are using the ones that said 2mm if we did nothing.

When you look at the physical and economic damage it is way worse than predicted.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #498 on: June 17, 2020, 01:49:21 PM »
Models change all the time. The way it is going now the models were right or on the low side unless you are using the ones that said 2mm if we did nothing.

When you look at the physical and economic damage it is way worse than predicted.
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #499 on: June 17, 2020, 02:38:33 PM »
There was no social distancing when the first wave hit, there is much more social distancing now. Especially among the the vulnerable population (elderly/high risk who didn't already get the virus).
+1

Thereís no way weíre in a worse place than we were pre-COVID as far as SD. Additionally, there are an awful lot of people around with antibodies.
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Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #500 on: June 17, 2020, 04:13:51 PM »
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
Iíve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that heís relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like heís going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?

ETA: I found this from April, which also claims many experts believe daily deaths will drop to under 10 by early June with distancing measures in place. Well, measures arenít in place any longer and now there are still about 1,000 a day.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 04:17:06 PM by S209 »
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #501 on: June 17, 2020, 04:18:38 PM »
Iíve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that heís relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like heís going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #502 on: June 17, 2020, 04:19:15 PM »
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
That was a negotiating tactic.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #503 on: June 17, 2020, 04:22:11 PM »
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #504 on: June 17, 2020, 04:23:19 PM »
That was a negotiating tactic.
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #505 on: June 17, 2020, 04:23:50 PM »
What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #506 on: June 17, 2020, 04:30:16 PM »
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.

Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?
Please wear a mask.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #507 on: June 17, 2020, 04:33:54 PM »
Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?
Please elaborate.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #508 on: June 17, 2020, 04:40:21 PM »
Please elaborate.

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.
Please wear a mask.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #509 on: June 17, 2020, 04:42:52 PM »
He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.
Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.