Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 42355 times)

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #500 on: June 17, 2020, 04:13:51 PM »
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
Iíve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that heís relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like heís going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?

ETA: I found this from April, which also claims many experts believe daily deaths will drop to under 10 by early June with distancing measures in place. Well, measures arenít in place any longer and now there are still about 1,000 a day.
« Last Edit: June 17, 2020, 04:17:06 PM by S209 »
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #501 on: June 17, 2020, 04:18:38 PM »
Iíve asked this in the past but not been answered, what is your source for this? Trump announced that heís relying on a model that predicted between 100,000-240,000 deaths through August with social distancing measures in place when formulating the US government response. Looks like heís going to end up just about right (though only time will truly tell). Where have you seen otherwise?
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #502 on: June 17, 2020, 04:19:15 PM »
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
That was a negotiating tactic.
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Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #503 on: June 17, 2020, 04:22:11 PM »
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #504 on: June 17, 2020, 04:23:19 PM »
That was a negotiating tactic.
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #505 on: June 17, 2020, 04:23:50 PM »
What economic impact did that have? Was there policy implemented because he requested more ventilators? What model was he using?
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #506 on: June 17, 2020, 04:30:16 PM »
As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.

Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #507 on: June 17, 2020, 04:33:54 PM »
Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?
Please elaborate.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #508 on: June 17, 2020, 04:40:21 PM »
Please elaborate.

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #509 on: June 17, 2020, 04:42:52 PM »
He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.
Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #510 on: June 17, 2020, 04:47:57 PM »
Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.

Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was

As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #511 on: June 17, 2020, 04:51:26 PM »
Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was
He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #512 on: June 17, 2020, 04:54:52 PM »
He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.

You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #513 on: June 17, 2020, 04:59:50 PM »
You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?
Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #514 on: June 17, 2020, 05:03:22 PM »
Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #515 on: June 17, 2020, 05:06:38 PM »
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
Source?
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #516 on: June 17, 2020, 05:07:10 PM »
The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.
The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #517 on: June 17, 2020, 05:07:49 PM »
Source?
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #518 on: June 17, 2020, 05:12:11 PM »

That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #519 on: June 17, 2020, 05:26:12 PM »
That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.
I didn't realize you were questioning the economic impact. I thought it was quite obvious, forcing businesses to close and people to stay home for so long has a huge economic impact.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.