Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 24940 times)

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #510 on: June 17, 2020, 04:47:57 PM »
Of course it does, the inaccurate models were used by politicians and the media for fear mongering and power grabbing.

Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was

As well as fear mongering and power grabbing.
Please wear a mask.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #511 on: June 17, 2020, 04:51:26 PM »
Great, he asked which models and your response was that Cuomo needed 40k vents. When he asked which model Cuomo used, your answer was
He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #512 on: June 17, 2020, 04:54:52 PM »
He asked 3 questions, I answered 2 of them but you chose to assume I was incoherently answering the third.

You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?
Please wear a mask.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #513 on: June 17, 2020, 04:59:50 PM »
You're right. I'm sorry.

Now back to original question: which models did we use that were completely off base?
Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #514 on: June 17, 2020, 05:03:22 PM »
Whichever one Cuomo based his claim of needing 40k ventilators on. Which model it was and how many models said otherwise doesn't matter, the fact is this is what was used to make the decisions that lead to the economic devastation.

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.
Please wear a mask.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #515 on: June 17, 2020, 05:06:38 PM »
The models being used by the authorities to make the decisions that caused this economic impact were way off.
Source?
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Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #516 on: June 17, 2020, 05:07:10 PM »
The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.
The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #517 on: June 17, 2020, 05:07:49 PM »
Source?
Cuomo's model expecting to need 40,000 ventilators comes to mind.
The peak number of hospitalizations NYS was 18k, even if ventilators were the correct treatment it was still way off. Same with number of hospital beds which IIRC he said they would need like 180k beds.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #518 on: June 17, 2020, 05:12:11 PM »

That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #519 on: June 17, 2020, 05:26:12 PM »
That's the personal loss not economic. Since you are on personal loss those numbers (deaths) look pretty accurate to me.
I didn't realize you were questioning the economic impact. I thought it was quite obvious, forcing businesses to close and people to stay home for so long has a huge economic impact.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #520 on: June 17, 2020, 05:34:17 PM »
I didn't realize you were questioning the economic impact. I thought it was quite obvious, forcing businesses to close and people to stay home for so long has a huge economic impact.
They predicted a huge economic impact. So I guess we are on the same page.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #521 on: June 17, 2020, 06:57:45 PM »
That was a negotiating tactic.
No it wasnít. It led to the nursing home policy which led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. 

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #522 on: June 18, 2020, 10:18:49 AM »
Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?

Because unfortunately, they mostly are conflated to a lesser or greater degree.

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.

Models, by definition use a variety of inputs, some of which are guesses and assumptions. Those guesses and assumptions are influenced to various degrees by the (political) bias of the person designing (or ordering) said model. Also, despite disclaimers buried in the footnotes of the model, they often are publicized and promoted as gospel, lacking humility.

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.

Indeed, and as long as the narrative of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve, it had credibility. There's no way to really avoid getting infected as long as a person is not totally isolated, but we can slow down the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the medical system and allow more time to learn HOW TO TREAT THE SERIOUSLY ILL (any talk about waiting for a vaccine is a blatant lie, as no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and that's being extremely optimistic and probably not realistic).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #523 on: June 18, 2020, 10:44:03 AM »
Because unfortunately, they mostly are conflated to a lesser or greater degree.

Theyíre conflated by many people but the science really doesnít care about the politics. Why do people keep saying itís political? The virus is apolitical, itís been politicized. Donít let the politics enter into a reasonable discussion in how we should be living our lives.

Models, by definition use a variety of inputs, some of which are guesses and assumptions. Those guesses and assumptions are influenced to various degrees by the (political) bias of the person designing (or ordering) said model. Also, despite disclaimers buried in the footnotes of the model, they often are publicized and promoted as gospel, lacking humility.

All very eloquent and wise but this discussion was about how the models being used to influence policy were actually pretty accurate. Itís a popular right-wing talking point that all politicians based their policy on Neil Fergusonís model (which may or may not prove right) but thatís just a flat out lie. Many models have actually proven dead on. And those were the models that a lot of policy (including the federal policy in the US) was based on.

Indeed, and as long as the narrative of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve, it had credibility. There's no way to really avoid getting infected as long as a person is not totally isolated, but we can slow down the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the medical system and allow more time to learn HOW TO TREAT THE SERIOUSLY ILL (any talk about waiting for a vaccine is a blatant lie, as no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and that's being extremely optimistic and probably not realistic).
I agree with you that not overwhelming the system and allowing time to learn how to treat patients were and are important goals but I strongly disagree with you that ďthereís no real way to avoid getting infectedĒ. If restrictions, testing, and contact tracing are implemented properly (as they have been in many if not most countries around the world) there is every reason to believe that the majority of people will never get infected.

To your last point, Iím not sure who you call reasonable people but a very large number of epidemiologists have said they believe there will be a mass produced vaccine by January 2021. If youíd bet on an outcome we can take this over to JS and Iíd put money down on that happening.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #524 on: June 18, 2020, 11:45:39 AM »
Donít let the politics enter into a reasonable discussion in how we should be living our lives.
Unfortunately many are not capable of separating the two.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch