Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 42354 times)

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #520 on: June 17, 2020, 05:34:17 PM »
I didn't realize you were questioning the economic impact. I thought it was quite obvious, forcing businesses to close and people to stay home for so long has a huge economic impact.
They predicted a huge economic impact. So I guess we are on the same page.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #521 on: June 17, 2020, 06:57:45 PM »
That was a negotiating tactic.
No it wasnít. It led to the nursing home policy which led to thousands of unnecessary deaths. 

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #522 on: June 18, 2020, 10:18:49 AM »
Why are we conflating the politics with the science again?

Because unfortunately, they mostly are conflated to a lesser or greater degree.

He asked about models, and how they weren't accurate, and we somehow start talking about spin and fear mongering  and power grabbing. No one disputes the abuse of power. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of models.

Models, by definition use a variety of inputs, some of which are guesses and assumptions. Those guesses and assumptions are influenced to various degrees by the (political) bias of the person designing (or ordering) said model. Also, despite disclaimers buried in the footnotes of the model, they often are publicized and promoted as gospel, lacking humility.

The error there wasn't in the numbers, it was in treatment method. At that time, we were under the impression that most people who got sick would need to be intubated. That has proved to be false. Goes under reasons to keep people from getting sick. The longer you keep them from getting infected, the better the treatment will be when they eventually do need it.

Indeed, and as long as the narrative of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve, it had credibility. There's no way to really avoid getting infected as long as a person is not totally isolated, but we can slow down the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the medical system and allow more time to learn HOW TO TREAT THE SERIOUSLY ILL (any talk about waiting for a vaccine is a blatant lie, as no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and that's being extremely optimistic and probably not realistic).
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
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Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #523 on: June 18, 2020, 10:44:03 AM »
Because unfortunately, they mostly are conflated to a lesser or greater degree.

Theyíre conflated by many people but the science really doesnít care about the politics. Why do people keep saying itís political? The virus is apolitical, itís been politicized. Donít let the politics enter into a reasonable discussion in how we should be living our lives.

Models, by definition use a variety of inputs, some of which are guesses and assumptions. Those guesses and assumptions are influenced to various degrees by the (political) bias of the person designing (or ordering) said model. Also, despite disclaimers buried in the footnotes of the model, they often are publicized and promoted as gospel, lacking humility.

All very eloquent and wise but this discussion was about how the models being used to influence policy were actually pretty accurate. Itís a popular right-wing talking point that all politicians based their policy on Neil Fergusonís model (which may or may not prove right) but thatís just a flat out lie. Many models have actually proven dead on. And those were the models that a lot of policy (including the federal policy in the US) was based on.

Indeed, and as long as the narrative of the lockdowns was to flatten the curve, it had credibility. There's no way to really avoid getting infected as long as a person is not totally isolated, but we can slow down the rate of infection to avoid overwhelming the medical system and allow more time to learn HOW TO TREAT THE SERIOUSLY ILL (any talk about waiting for a vaccine is a blatant lie, as no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and that's being extremely optimistic and probably not realistic).
I agree with you that not overwhelming the system and allowing time to learn how to treat patients were and are important goals but I strongly disagree with you that ďthereís no real way to avoid getting infectedĒ. If restrictions, testing, and contact tracing are implemented properly (as they have been in many if not most countries around the world) there is every reason to believe that the majority of people will never get infected.

To your last point, Iím not sure who you call reasonable people but a very large number of epidemiologists have said they believe there will be a mass produced vaccine by January 2021. If youíd bet on an outcome we can take this over to JS and Iíd put money down on that happening.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #524 on: June 18, 2020, 11:45:39 AM »
Donít let the politics enter into a reasonable discussion in how we should be living our lives.
Unfortunately many are not capable of separating the two.
You're so far up Trump's a** you can see Giuliani's feet.  HT Baruch

Offline Afrages6

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #525 on: June 18, 2020, 12:11:26 PM »
Unfortunately many are not capable of separating the two.
Just like the public health experts who said protesting was okay.

Offline ExGingi

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #526 on: June 18, 2020, 12:20:05 PM »
To your last point, Iím not sure who you call reasonable people but a very large number of epidemiologists have said they believe there will be a mass produced vaccine by January 2021. If youíd bet on an outcome we can take this over to JS and Iíd put money down on that happening.

Without touching on some other points at the moment, just to your point about a mass produced (and distributed?) effective vaccine by 2021, see:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html

Side note about all disagreements: we should all be mindful of confirmation bias.
I've been waiting over 5 years with bated breath for someone to say that!
-- Dan

Offline chevron

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #527 on: June 18, 2020, 01:10:02 PM »
It's just a first wave, looking at NYC go back to normal nebech

And Orlando probably a major virus hotspot

Offline yaakov35

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #528 on: June 18, 2020, 01:16:40 PM »
It's just a first wave, looking at NYC go back to normal nebech

And Orlando probably a major virus hotspot
So even though numbers have been dropping for months everyone should stay indoors?

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #529 on: June 18, 2020, 01:18:17 PM »
So even though numbers have been dropping for months everyone should stay indoors?
Still putting words in people's mouths?
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline yaakov35

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #530 on: June 18, 2020, 01:22:00 PM »
Still putting words in people's mouths?
He said looking at people going back to normal nebach... did I miss something?

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #531 on: June 18, 2020, 01:27:06 PM »
He said looking at people going back to normal nebach... did I miss something?

Once again, there's a lot of space between staying home and going back to normal.
Temporarily back to Lurker status.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #532 on: June 18, 2020, 01:27:12 PM »
He said looking at people going back to normal nebach... did I miss something?
Yes, a complete lack of nuance.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline chevron

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #533 on: June 18, 2020, 01:47:03 PM »
You missed the fact that rising numbers means it's spreading.. you also conviently ignore that it took a while for NY to blow up earlier.


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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #534 on: June 18, 2020, 01:53:21 PM »
Without touching on some other points at the moment, just to your point about a mass produced (and distributed?) effective vaccine by 2021, see:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html

Side note about all disagreements: we should all be mindful of confirmation bias.
You said no reasonable person expects a vaccine in less than 18 months, and quoting one opinion piece that says itís unrealistic doesnít prove your negative. Many reasonable people have at this point agreed a vaccine by early 2021 is possible and even likely. I would be happy to provide sources of epidemiologists concurring if I donít count as reasonable enough to you.

Keep in mind that piece is from 7 weeks ago, which is eons. Several very promising vaccine candidates are already at Phase 3 clinical trials.

Your disclaimer is very true.
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Offline chevron

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #535 on: June 18, 2020, 01:57:08 PM »
That's why rising numbers matter, it means an active upward trend of spreading.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #536 on: June 18, 2020, 02:01:28 PM »
The reason the virus is making less waves now is simply because

#1 hospitals aren't being flooded like before
#2 treatment got significantly better, much lower % are dying bh

There are 2 drugs out there that work. If remisvider lowers patients hospital stays by a few days, that clears up beds and hospital man power

The second drug for more chronic patients is saving lives.  Or any immunosuppressants they are using has been saving lives.

However, the idea was being safe, social distancing, masks, wash hands.

You sound like people in the eye of the hurricane, inside the eye it's very calm.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #537 on: June 18, 2020, 02:09:12 PM »
You sound like people in the eye of the hurricane, inside the eye it's very calm.
Song version

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Offline yaakov35

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #538 on: June 18, 2020, 02:23:37 PM »
You missed the fact that rising numbers means it's spreading.. you also conviently ignore that it took a while for NY to blow up earlier.
Sure, was spreading around like wild fire we just didn't know. The entire state must be blind...

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #539 on: June 18, 2020, 02:28:46 PM »


The reason the virus is making less waves now is simply because

#1 hospitals aren't being flooded like before
#2 treatment got significantly better, much lower % are dying bh

There are 2 drugs out there that work. If remisvider lowers patients hospital stays by a few days, that clears up beds and hospital man power

The second drug for more chronic patients is saving lives.  Or any immunosuppressants they are using has been saving lives.

However, the idea was being safe, social distancing, masks, wash hands.

You sound like people in the eye of the hurricane, inside the eye it's very calm.

Why aren't they flooded like before? First we were all dumb because we didn't close shuls fast enough, now that they are all open and numbers are down.... new twist.  And great comparison, your talking about a virus that was spreading like wildfire and nobody knew about it?! More accurate comparison would be standing outside when it's nice weather and saying hey its nice weather.