Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 24964 times)

Offline yuneeq

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Offline PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #586 on: June 24, 2020, 07:20:13 PM »
:o :o
Real shocker

Who could’ve seen this coming?
These days you can’t even expect people to see it after it arrived
Purpose > Pleasure

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #587 on: June 24, 2020, 07:28:17 PM »
These days you can’t even expect people to see it after it arrived

“Florida researchers indicate possible evidence of human-to-human transmission of a newly discovered coronavirus.”

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #588 on: June 24, 2020, 07:33:24 PM »
There is no herd immunity in these places. There is in NY.
Next...

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #589 on: June 24, 2020, 07:39:12 PM »
There is no herd immunity in these places. There is in NY.
Next...

The only thing NY has is Heard Immunity.
Next...
Please wear a mask.

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #590 on: June 24, 2020, 07:41:49 PM »
There is no herd immunity in these places. There is in NY.
Next...
The sky is bright red.

Next...

Disclaimer: I am not saying it’s not *possible* there is some level of herd immunity. I’m saying it’s not *proven*. Saying it confidently doesn’t make it so.
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Offline Kobe bryent

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #591 on: June 24, 2020, 10:15:35 PM »
What a lib. Doesn’t he know it’s just due to an increase in testing?
...
Do people believe this virus has been eradicated from the face of the planet?

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #592 on: June 24, 2020, 10:21:22 PM »

Yes. Many people here have proclaimed corona “over”.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #593 on: June 25, 2020, 01:03:38 AM »
@biobook There's no way you weren't/aren't a teacher. You have a great knack for breaking down complicated science into an understandable "For Dummies" format. Thank you!!
Yes, I did have a few stints as a substitute teacher... 7th grade boys... 12th grade girls...  a summer class for kids in junior high.  The things one does for parnassah!  It was enough to convince me that I didn't have the personality for that.
The background stuff I wrote is Bio 101, basic introductory biology, which is all the immunology I've learned.  Reading the article was more grueling, and like Mr. Pooh I kept thinking,  "I am a Bear of Very Little Brain, and long words Bother me."

Offline B.D.Da'ehu

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #594 on: June 28, 2020, 01:17:43 PM »
The number on Sunday was 49 then fell to 40 now back to 45. Still less then Sundays numbers. Ventilators was at 29 fell to 26 and now at 27. These numbers are far better then the begining where severe cases were about 3-4% of total cases.
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Offline Mtrasb

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #595 on: June 28, 2020, 01:50:01 PM »
On the issue of reinfection, reactivation and persistent infection

There have been reports of people in our community who appear to have had COVID in the past (evidenced by antibody presence, viral test, or classic symptoms) and have since recovered for many weeks, and who now have covid-like symptoms again. Some of these individuals are now testing positive for the virus. What does this mean; how do we interpret this?

There are several possibilities:

1. Their body had completely fought off the virus, and then they caught the virus again from someone else, resulting in the second set of symptoms.

This is the most worrisome possibility, and what people typically mean when they say “reinfection”. These people lend credence to the possibility that protection acquired from the original infection is indeed short lived (as witnessed by IgG antibody levels falling quite rapidly as we see), and that given a sufficient exposure to another infectious individual, they may become reinfected and sick with COVID all over again, and may themselves be infectious. They would need to quarantine fully for at least 10 days after the onset of symptoms, just in case this truly is a new infection (even if they have antibodies).

2. Their body did not completely fight off the virus; some virus remained dormant. That remaining virus was somehow reactivated, causing those second set of symptoms.

This is less worrisome, as it does not necessarily imply community spread. As of this time we have tended to think of people who have the virus as not being infectious 2 weeks after symptom onset. Whether patients with “reactivated infection” truly exist, or this is either option 1 above or 3 below remains to be proven.

3. Their body completely fought off the virus, but some viral particles remained in their secretions for many weeks, presumably dead/inactive. Their second set of symptoms was in fact not due to active infection with coronavirus but possibly is a delayed immune response or other infectious cause, however when tested for the virus, the test sensed those remaining viral particles and returned a positive result.

This is the least worrisome, although there is a limit to how long we think dead viral particles hang around for.

In addition, if they had tested negative for the virus (twice ideally) while they were recovered, and then the test turned positive on their second set of symptoms, this option is no longer a reasonable consideration.

Which one of these possibilities is the true answer, or indeed whether the true answer is a combination of these three possibilities, is still unknown. This is currently one of the most pressing questions about the virus, and one which is being actively researched. 

A somewhat related question is how long antibodies last for. Meaning, even if we assume that someone who interacted with the virus indeed does have protection, we are still studying how long that lasts for, and whether the antibodies are the sole measure of this protection, or does immunity possibly rest elsewhere in a profoundly complex human immune system (and not necessarily dependent on antibody levels). Again, this is something being studied, and we hope that for the majority of people protection lasts at least several months and more.

Practically:

If someone already had covid (by antibodies, viral test, or classic covid symptoms) and is now experiencing a second set of typical covid-like symptoms, please do get tested for the virus. If the test is positive, please isolate yourself until 10 days have elapsed from the beginning of the symptoms and your fever/symptoms have resolved.

If someone already had covid (by antibodies, viral test, or classic covid symptoms) and then later has a positive viral test but is not having any covid symptoms, they do not need to quarantine, however they should be very careful with mask use and social distancing.
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Offline YitzyS

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #596 on: July 01, 2020, 04:59:33 PM »
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.
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Offline Kobe bryent

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #597 on: July 01, 2020, 05:13:39 PM »
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.
What goes around comes around. NY-FL-NY

Offline Hjay

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #598 on: July 01, 2020, 11:57:57 PM »
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.

Why is this not happening in NY? What’s the explanation that NY just keeps going down BH.

PS Not asking this from any side of the argument just wondering & I’m sure we’ll hear from both sides

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #599 on: July 02, 2020, 12:00:22 AM »
Why is this not happening in NY? What’s the explanation that NY just keeps going down BH.

PS Not asking this from any side of the argument just wondering & I’m sure we’ll hear from both sides
Are you sure it’s not happening in NY? It’s not on such a large scale in Lakewood just yet, but it's a close knit community with collaboration by all local doctors so they have the information collated well.

10 symptomatic patients who tested positive already can mean there are potentially dozens more asymptomatic/presymptomatic spreading it silently ch”v.. I don’t know if that scale would be detected in NY quite as quickly.

There are also those who believe NY was hit harder earlier on.
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