Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 42358 times)

Offline Luvisrael

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #600 on: July 02, 2020, 12:03:24 AM »
It’s inevitable  that someone will bring back invisible souvenirs from a place with significant cases.I cancelled my LA trip because of this.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #601 on: July 02, 2020, 12:38:25 AM »
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #602 on: July 02, 2020, 12:30:18 PM »
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.
Exactly
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Offline Hjay

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #603 on: July 02, 2020, 01:45:28 PM »
Herd immunity is about that it would be very difficult to spread locally in a more than localized manner.
Obviously, a person with no antibodies traveling to Florida is just like any Floridian. Why would he be different. Nothing here is contradictory to what most people are saying.

Is there more herd immunity in Brooklyn than Lakewood? I know many people from Brooklyn who’ve been in Florida over the past few weeks.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #604 on: July 02, 2020, 01:49:35 PM »
I'd be curious to see a study on herd immunity where the herd with over x% immunity interacts with many other herds with no immunity.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #605 on: July 02, 2020, 02:27:56 PM »
Is there more herd immunity in Brooklyn than Lakewood? I know many people from Brooklyn who’ve been in Florida over the past few weeks.
Ah... so that's how it came here?

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #606 on: July 02, 2020, 02:29:44 PM »

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #607 on: July 02, 2020, 02:29:55 PM »
I'd be curious to see a study on herd immunity where the herd with over x% immunity interacts with many other herds with no immunity.
That would pretty much be the definition of "no herd immunity", no?

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #608 on: July 02, 2020, 02:34:49 PM »
That would pretty much be the definition of "no herd immunity", no?

I'm not talking about a full integration and dilution of the herd, just a series of interactions with other herds. I want to know at what point is your herd just part of a larger herd.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #609 on: July 02, 2020, 02:48:38 PM »
I'm not talking about a full integration and dilution of the herd, just a series of interactions with other herds. I want to know at what point is your herd just part of a larger herd.
If we use this definition: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

I think you're asking How do we define community? 
Does it mean all those who live and eat and work mostly with each other?  (eg, Jewish CH)
Or do we need to add to that those who join that physical space for shorter periods of working or eating, for example? (eg, cashier in CH grocery store who lives elsewhere, visitors who come just to shop)
If many individuals leave the community during the day for work, for example, can we still refer to the original community as having herd immunity, or does community need to be defined as the original community, plus all those within physical proximity of places of work and public transportation?  (eg, CH plus the rest of NYC)

Online avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #610 on: July 02, 2020, 03:03:17 PM »
If we use this definition: Herd immunity occurs when a large portion of a community (the herd) becomes immune to a disease, making the spread of disease from person to person unlikely.

I think you're asking How do we define community? 
Does it mean all those who live and eat and work mostly with each other?  (eg, Jewish CH)
Or do we need to add to that those who join that physical space for shorter periods of working or eating, for example? (eg, cashier in CH grocery store who lives elsewhere, visitors who come just to shop)
If many individuals leave the community during the day for work, for example, can we still refer to the original community as having herd immunity, or does community need to be defined as the original community, plus all those within physical proximity of places of work and public transportation?  (eg, CH plus the rest of NYC)
We don't say there is no herd immunity in the US for the measles because you have people coming from countries in Africa where the measles is still common. The same would apply on a smaller scale to a community like CH, while there are interactions outside the "herd", as long as the interactions aren't enough to dilute the herd you have a situation where a big outbreak is impossible.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #611 on: July 02, 2020, 03:23:10 PM »
I think you're asking How do we define community? 
We don't say there is no herd immunity in the US for the measles because you have people coming from countries in Africa where the measles is still common. The same would apply on a smaller scale to a community like CH, while there are interactions outside the "herd", as long as the interactions aren't enough to dilute the herd you have a situation where a big outbreak is impossible.

The question is, at what point does the community become absorbed into a greater community? Every herd will have outside interactions without nullifying its status as a herd. Is there a point where a community interacts with outsiders so much that either they lose the benefits of the perceived immunities or they just lose their status as a community to begin with?
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #612 on: July 02, 2020, 03:42:55 PM »
When I think of "herd immunity", I envision Farmer Brown's herd of sheep within an enclosed fence, totally separated from any other sheep.

But I'm totally ignorant about this, so won't say any more.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #613 on: July 02, 2020, 03:49:07 PM »
When I think of "herd immunity", I envision Farmer Brown's herd of sheep within an enclosed fence, totally separated from any other sheep.

But I'm totally ignorant about this, so won't say any more.
That wouldn't require any immunity, that stops anything from getting in in the first place. Herd immunity is enough immunity that even if someone does catch the virus an outbreak is impossible because the chain is statistically guaranteed to break.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #614 on: July 02, 2020, 04:18:27 PM »
Keep an eye on NY's numbers over the next 10 days. I believe we've just passed the lowest point we'll see for infections for a very long time. I don't think the numbers will get really bad anytime soon, but something to keep an eye on as the weather gets hotter and moves people back indoors.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #615 on: July 02, 2020, 04:20:56 PM »
That wouldn't require any immunity, that stops anything from getting in in the first place. Herd immunity is enough immunity that even if someone does catch the virus an outbreak is impossible because the chain is statistically guaranteed to break.
My simplistic and possibly incorrect understanding:

Farmer Brown has 10 sheep - 7 (X) were infected and recovered, 3 (O) still susceptible: 
XXOXXXOXXO

If an Infected sheep (I) is introduced to the herd, it is most likely to bump into an X, rather than O. 
XXOXIXXOXXO
The Xs are protected directly by antibody immunity, so won't spread the disease. The Os are protected indirectly, due to herd immunity.

Farmer Green has a separate herd of 10 healthy sheep, all susceptible to disease.  They're enclosed in a fence, but there is no herd immunity, because the introduction of a single infected sheep could get them all sick.

Now Farmer Green sells his entire herd to Farmer Brown.  The new herd has 7 infected + 13 susceptible
OOXXOXOOOXOXOOXXOOOO

If an Infected sheep is introduced, it is most likely to bump into an O.
OOXXOXOIOOXOXOOXXOOOO
We would say there is no herd immunity.  The Xs are still protected due to their own antibodies, but the 3 Os that had immunity due to being in the herd have now lost that due to the introduction of healthy, uninfected individuals. One infected individual can get all the Os sick. It wouldn't matter if Farmer Brown's sheep followed a different religion from Farmer Green's.

So the question I think Lurker was asking was What happens if Farmer Brown and Farmer Green keep their herds separate, but all the sheep spend an hour a day foraging in the same field.  Is this equivalent to the case where the two herds are combined?  How much time do they need to spend together to be considered a single herd, when it comes to herd immunity?

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #616 on: July 02, 2020, 04:39:09 PM »
Keep an eye on NY's numbers over the next 10 days. I believe we've just passed the lowest point we'll see for infections for a very long time. I don't think the numbers will get really bad anytime soon, but something to keep an eye on as the weather gets hotter and moves people back indoors.
Are you basing this off of what's happening in Florida?

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #617 on: July 02, 2020, 04:43:18 PM »
My simplistic and possibly incorrect understanding:

Farmer Brown has 10 sheep - 7 (X) were infected and recovered, 3 (O) still susceptible: 
XXOXXXOXXO

If an Infected sheep (I) is introduced to the herd, it is most likely to bump into an X, rather than O. 
XXOXIXXOXXO
The Xs are protected directly by antibody immunity, so won't spread the disease. The Os are protected indirectly, due to herd immunity.

Farmer Green has a separate herd of 10 healthy sheep, all susceptible to disease.  They're enclosed in a fence, but there is no herd immunity, because the introduction of a single infected sheep could get them all sick.

Now Farmer Green sells his entire herd to Farmer Brown.  The new herd has 7 infected + 13 susceptible
OOXXOXOOOXOXOOXXOOOO

If an Infected sheep is introduced, it is most likely to bump into an O.
OOXXOXOIOOXOXOOXXOOOO
We would say there is no herd immunity.  The Xs are still protected due to their own antibodies, but the 3 Os that had immunity due to being in the herd have now lost that due to the introduction of healthy, uninfected individuals. One infected individual can get all the Os sick. It wouldn't matter if Farmer Brown's sheep followed a different religion from Farmer Green's.

So the question I think Lurker was asking was What happens if Farmer Brown and Farmer Green keep their herds separate, but all the sheep spend an hour a day foraging in the same field.  Is this equivalent to the case where the two herds are combined?  How much time do they need to spend together to be considered a single herd, when it comes to herd immunity?
I'll tweak your example where each (X) or (O) represents 100 sheep instead of 1, we're also working with a simplified assumption where each sheep only comes in contact with 1 other sheep. When you have 7(X) and 3(O) there is a decently high possibility (30%) that the infected sheep will come in contact with 1 of the (O)'s, but at some point the next infected sheep will only come in contact with the (X)'s breaking the chain of infections thereby stopping the outbreak. Back to our community, as long as you don't have everyone mingling with other communities even if some people get it from outside the community there is a limit to how much it can spread.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #618 on: July 02, 2020, 04:53:21 PM »
I'll tweak your example where each (X) or (O) represents 100 sheep instead of 1, we're also working with a simplified assumption where each sheep only comes in contact with 1 other sheep. When you have 7(X) and 3(O) there is a decently high possibility (30%) that the infected sheep will come in contact with 1 of the (O)'s, but at some point the next infected sheep will only come in contact with the (X)'s breaking the chain of infections thereby stopping the outbreak.
Yes, of course, agreed.
Quote
Back to our community, as long as you don't have everyone mingling with other communities even if some people get it from outside the community there is a limit to how much it can spread.
Back to a definition of our community.  How do you define this?  Is your community your neighborhood in Lakewood?  All of Jewish Lakewood?  All of Jewish and non-Jewish Lakewood?  Does it include those who commute to Lakewood every day for a job?

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #619 on: July 02, 2020, 05:05:26 PM »
Back to a definition of our community.  How do you define this?  Is your community your neighborhood in Lakewood?  All of Jewish Lakewood?  All of Jewish and non-Jewish Lakewood?  Does it include those who commute to Lakewood every day for a job?
That's a good question and it's hard to pinpoint exactly where to draw the lines. I would assume we should include Jewish people in (and around) Lakewood, the same would go for Williamsburg, BP, and CH.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.