Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 42363 times)

Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #620 on: July 02, 2020, 05:18:05 PM »
That's a good question and it's hard to pinpoint exactly where to draw the lines. I would assume we should include Jewish people in (and around) Lakewood, the same would go for Williamsburg, BP, and CH.
That's what I thought you were thinking, but I think it's wrong.  I think the lines should be drawn around all the people who are in physical proximity, so if your neighbor's mother-in-law lives with them, and has a non-Jewish health care aide who comes every day, and your other neighbor works every day in an office with a non-Jewish coworker, and you mix with those neighbors in shul and shopping, then the community of people who can be potentially infected and transmit the disease would have to include all those people, Jews and non-Jews. 

But I'm not at all sure about this, so I'm going to go read about herd immunity and see if I learn anything worthwhile.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #621 on: July 02, 2020, 05:55:04 PM »
Are you basing this off of what's happening in Florida?

Only as a part of a much bigger picture. Hate 'em or hate 'em, NY's restrictions effectively lowered the number of active infections to a point where spread became minimal. Not only did it keep hotspots from sprouting (bars, restaurants, churches, etc.), but it also kept people out of the city. People who live there left to places where they either felt safer or less restricted, and people who would normally visit stayed away either for safety or because there was nothing to do (no shows or games, nowhere to eat, hang out, etc.).

At a certain point, however, the tide does begin to turn. Restrictions in NY are easing, so many people who left town are returning. As the numbers rise around the rest of the country, their restrictions get tighter, and people start traveling to less restrictive locales they deem to be safer, such as a place which looks to be passed it's outbreak. In this regard, we're seeing a reverse of what happened in Florida during NY's peak. A quick look at TSA's checkpoint numbers in conjunction with the surge of new positive cases will tell you that greater spread is coming. TSA logged an average of around 575k passengers in the last 14 days. The 14 days before, they averaged about 440k, and the 14 days before that they averaged just over 300K daily travelers. That's an increase of almost 90% from a month ago. When infections get reintroduced into the NY metro area, and they coincide with the reopening of higher risk public spaces, the numbers are guaranteed to go up. This is being played out on a smaller scale in Lakewood, and I would be shocked not to hear of more such cases in other NY/NJ communities over the next couple of weeks.

Additionally, a theory bandied about here which I subscribe to is the weather factor. As long as the weather in nice and people can be outdoors, I think spread is somewhat limited. However, with hotter and more humid conditions, people will look to move to indoor air conditioned spaces. Combine that with a declining amount of people taking precautions, either because of a false sense of security from low numbers over the last month, or because of quarantine fatigue, and you're creating optimal conditions for a spike in spread. Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.
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Online avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #622 on: July 02, 2020, 07:04:14 PM »
That's what I thought you were thinking, but I think it's wrong.  I think the lines should be drawn around all the people who are in physical proximity, so if your neighbor's mother-in-law lives with them, and has a non-Jewish health care aide who comes every day, and your other neighbor works every day in an office with a non-Jewish coworker, and you mix with those neighbors in shul and shopping, then the community of people who can be potentially infected and transmit the disease would have to include all those people, Jews and non-Jews. 

But I'm not at all sure about this, so I'm going to go read about herd immunity and see if I learn anything worthwhile.
I would consider most of those to be herd interactions with people outside the herd.
Of note, today NY recorded their highest new positive count since 6/2. I don't think that's an anomaly; I think it's the start of a new upward trend.
The question is, is the increase due to community spread or new cases coming back from Florida.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #623 on: July 02, 2020, 07:38:50 PM »
The nature is that our herd immunity is effective, even if the surrounding area isn't as immune.
In places where the virus tends to spread, we're mostly with the same type of people of the herd. Shul, simchos, tons of workplaces, restaurants etc.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #624 on: July 02, 2020, 08:08:59 PM »
The question is, is the increase due to community spread or new cases coming back from Florida.

Does it matter? They could originate in FL, CA, TX, AZ, or NJ. Once you have infected people walking around within the community, the people they infect is the start of community spread. If there are more infected people on the streets of NY right now than there were 2 weeks ago, which I believe there are, then a rise in infections is very likely coming. I say watch the next 10 days because it will give a good idea of how the July 4th weekend will impact the spread, similar to what we saw nationwide after Memorial Day weekend.
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Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #625 on: July 02, 2020, 08:12:30 PM »
I would consider most of those to be herd interactions with people outside the herd.

My question is, how many of those interactions before the herd is no longer a herd, but part of a greater community? If I stop at the same Wawa 10 miles from my house every day, and I interact with the cashier more than anyone on my block, who's my herd?
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Online Kobe Bryant

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #626 on: July 02, 2020, 10:11:58 PM »
similar to what we saw nationwide after Memorial Day weekend.
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #627 on: July 02, 2020, 10:28:39 PM »
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.

Political rhetoric aside, most spread now is being traced back to bars, restaurants, gyms, and other indoor gatherings.
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Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #628 on: July 02, 2020, 10:57:01 PM »
When mass protests of thousands of people took to the streets.
Why didn't NYC or Chicago have massive spikes since they had larger protests? Try using common sense.
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #629 on: July 02, 2020, 11:28:05 PM »
BREAKING: I have a reliable report that there seems to be a COVID resurgence beginning in Lakewood. Five frum community members tested positive yesterday, and 5 new cases are pending today. A FRUM MEMBER OF THE COMMUNITY IS NOW IN THE ICU. Another frum man, from Florida, worked in a large Lakewood day camp and had close contact with many people, and he just tested positive.

Guys, it's crazy how we are throwing caution to the wind. This seems to be a major issue. Please spread the word to anyone you know, so that they can take all needed precautions.
There are currently 8 positives with 2 pending. The person in the ICU has tested negative for Covid. As per Dr. Friedman of CHEMED (who has been collating the cases in Lakewood.)

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Offline Proisrael

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #631 on: July 03, 2020, 03:10:12 AM »
There are currently 8 positives with 2 pending. The person in the ICU has tested negative for Covid. As per Dr. Friedman of CHEMED (who has been collating the cases in Lakewood.)

The fact that absolutely nobody wears masks in Lakewood means this can spiral extremely fast out of control. Very sad.

Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #632 on: July 03, 2020, 04:14:40 AM »
The fact that absolutely nobody wears masks in Lakewood means this can spiral extremely fast out of control. Very sad.
Or that Lakewood residents  have taken the position that there is little risk of it quickly spiraling out of control into a massive wave in Lakewood. A far more reasonable position in my opinion.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #633 on: July 03, 2020, 07:34:11 AM »
Or that Lakewood residents  have taken the position that there is little risk of it quickly spiraling out of control into a massive wave in Lakewood. A far more reasonable position in my opinion.
Or the most reasonable position, which is that the reality falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes
Life isn't about checking the boxes. Nobody cares.

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #634 on: July 03, 2020, 07:37:15 AM »
Or the most reasonable position, which is that the reality falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes
+1000


The all or nothing mentality is ridiculous.

Offline CountValentine

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #635 on: July 03, 2020, 08:15:12 AM »
Or the most reasonable position, which is that the reality falls somewhere in the middle of those two extremes
You need to ask yourself if your extreme position is wrong what will the cost to human life be?
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Offline moko

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #636 on: July 03, 2020, 08:19:57 AM »
You need to ask yourself if your extreme position is wrong what will the cost to human life be?
you may as well just post the hamster wheel instead of a written response

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #637 on: July 03, 2020, 08:24:46 AM »
you may as well just post the hamster wheel instead of a written response
If I get one person to think about it then it was worth it but just in case.  :)
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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #638 on: July 03, 2020, 08:51:05 AM »
Or that Lakewood residents  have taken the position that there is little risk of it quickly spiraling out of control into a massive wave in Lakewood. A far more reasonable position in my opinion.

Tell me, how do you define "massive wave?" Does more than 50% of any given population need to get it in order to qualify? What about 10% of a very large population? And what if it doesn't spiral quickly? What if it takes a couple of months? Is that acceptable?
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Offline Yard sale

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #639 on: July 03, 2020, 09:08:33 AM »
Tell me, how do you define "massive wave?" Does more than 50% of any given population need to get it in order to qualify? What about 10% of a very large population? And what if it doesn't spiral quickly? What if it takes a couple of months? Is that acceptable?
Was just responding to
this can spiral extremely fast out of control. Very sad.