Is there a second wave?

[Dan]

#TBT to a roundup from 4 months ago:

https://www.dansdeals.com/more/dans-commentary/news-roundup/covid-19-news-roundup-5-25-20-super-spreaders-second-wave-immunity-passports-el-al-turkey-worldwide-restrictions-roundup-amare-stoudemire/#Thoughts_On_SuperSpreaders,_And_A_Second_Wave

[S209]

New statement from the Moetzes and Torah Umesorah

[Lurker]

New statement from the Moetzes and Torah Umesorah

"The perception of our communities' laxity in compliance..."

L.O.L.

[Lurker]

"Hey, Joe, time to close the doors?"
 "Lemme check. Nope, still one horse here. Oh, wait, he's gone. Clear to close, Jim!"

[yelped]

"The perception of our communities' laxity in compliance..."

L.O.L.

Well, that is one place where I do think that it should not be spelled out... They represent Yidden all over and have to be careful. Even though, we all know...

[Lurker]

Well, that is one place where I do think that it should not be spelled out... They represent Yidden all over and have to be careful. Even though, we all know...

I don't think they should have spelled it out, either. It just rubs me wrong.

[Moshe123]

Are we long enough into this "wave" to say that it's a ripple and barely that? I mean, you need to be able to compare it to the first wave.

[Lurker]

Are we long enough into this "wave" to say that it's a ripple and barely that? I mean, you need to be able to compare it to the first wave.

Ha. No.

You remind me of a guy who just moved to FL and thinks the thunderstorm before the hurricane is the whole thing.

[Moshe123]

Ha. No.

3 weeks into the first wave, at least half of the frum area had covid and people were dying from covid, dozens per day in the metro.

[Lurker]

3 weeks into the first wave, at least half of the frum area had covid and people were dying from covid, dozens per day in the metro.

When do you think the first wave started?

[Moshe123]

When do you think the first wave started?

Only isolated cases till a few days after Purim. The seeds were likely there before Purim and the insane mingling and shuls and schools remaining open for those 2 weeks, spread it to everywhere.

[yuneeq]

Only isolated cases till a few days after Purim. The seeds were likely there before Purim and the insane mingling and shuls and schools remaining open for those 2 weeks, spread it to everywhere.

FWIW, isolated cases started in January but no one tested for it.

[aygart]

Only isolated cases till a few days after Purim. The seeds were likely there before Purim and the insane mingling and shuls and schools remaining open for those 2 weeks, spread it to everywhere.

There were almost certainly thousands of positives before Purim.

[Moshe123]

There were almost certainly thousands of positives before Purim.

How many people do you know that were actually sick then? It doesn't go without it. Covid means half the people who have it are sick. Unless you only give an extra few days that you are counting. On that I can agree.

[Lurker]

How many people do you know that were actually sick then? It doesn't go without it. Covid means half the people who have it are sick. Unless you only give an extra few days that you are counting. On that I can agree.

How many people would shrug off Covid as a bad cold or the flu if they didn't know better, especially in Jan/Feb?

[Moshe123]

How many people would shrug off Covid as a bad cold or the flu if they didn't know better, especially in Jan/Feb?

True, but in retrospect that wasn't the case. The first person I know to actually be sick with covid was on the Shabbos following Purim.
People used to think that it really took up to 14 days to get sick. In reality, it's just a few days for most.

[yzj]

There were almost certainly thousands of positives before Purim.

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/

[Moshe123]

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/

Also, if we're using this timeline of let's say widespread isolated cases in retrospect, then this wave started way before 3 weeks ago.

[yuneeq]

https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/

What are you trying to show from this?

[aygart]

How many people do you know that were actually sick then? It doesn't go without it. Covid means half the people who have it are sick. Unless you only give an extra few days that you are counting. On that I can agree.

I actually know a few just on my block who had "a cold or flu" in the preceding weeks and then tested positive for antibodies. You are being totally delusional here. The numbers simply don't work to spread to as many people as got it over a week or two of there weren't thousands before Purim.