Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 30082 times)

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #690 on: October 08, 2020, 11:42:59 PM »
When do you think the first wave started?

Only isolated cases till a few days after Purim. The seeds were likely there before Purim and the insane mingling and shuls and schools remaining open for those 2 weeks, spread it to everywhere.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #691 on: October 08, 2020, 11:44:20 PM »
Only isolated cases till a few days after Purim. The seeds were likely there before Purim and the insane mingling and shuls and schools remaining open for those 2 weeks, spread it to everywhere.

FWIW, isolated cases started in January but no one tested for it.

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #692 on: October 08, 2020, 11:44:43 PM »
Only isolated cases till a few days after Purim. The seeds were likely there before Purim and the insane mingling and shuls and schools remaining open for those 2 weeks, spread it to everywhere.
There were almost certainly thousands of positives before Purim.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #693 on: October 08, 2020, 11:47:03 PM »
There were almost certainly thousands of positives before Purim.

How many people do you know that were actually sick then? It doesn't go without it. Covid means half the people who have it are sick. Unless you only give an extra few days that you are counting. On that I can agree.

Offline Lurker

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #694 on: October 08, 2020, 11:48:41 PM »
How many people do you know that were actually sick then? It doesn't go without it. Covid means half the people who have it are sick. Unless you only give an extra few days that you are counting. On that I can agree.

How many people would shrug off Covid as a bad cold or the flu if they didn't know better, especially in Jan/Feb?
When you find yourself agreeing with me more often than not, it's time for a cheshbon hanefesh.

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #695 on: October 08, 2020, 11:52:30 PM »
How many people would shrug off Covid as a bad cold or the flu if they didn't know better, especially in Jan/Feb?

True, but in retrospect that wasn't the case. The first person I know to actually be sick with covid was on the Shabbos following Purim.
People used to think that it really took up to 14 days to get sick. In reality, it's just a few days for most.

Offline yzj

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #696 on: October 08, 2020, 11:53:02 PM »

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #697 on: October 08, 2020, 11:56:22 PM »
https://www.wsj.com/graphics/when-did-covid-hit-earliest-death/




Also, if we're using this timeline of let's say widespread isolated cases in retrospect, then this wave started way before 3 weeks ago.

Offline yuneeq

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #698 on: October 08, 2020, 11:56:53 PM »

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #699 on: October 08, 2020, 11:57:57 PM »
How many people do you know that were actually sick then? It doesn't go without it. Covid means half the people who have it are sick. Unless you only give an extra few days that you are counting. On that I can agree.
I actually know a few just on my block who had "a cold or flu" in the preceding weeks and then tested positive for antibodies. You are being totally delusional here. The numbers simply don't work to spread to as many people as got it over a week or two of there weren't thousands before Purim.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #700 on: October 09, 2020, 12:02:15 AM »
True, but in retrospect that wasn't the case. The first person I know to actually be sick with covid was on the Shabbos following Purim.
People used to think that it really took up to 14 days to get sick. In reality, it's just a few days for most.
This is a recycled argument we had months ago, it certainly seems you are mistaken. I know quite a few people who thought they had the flu but tested negative in February/early March and tested positive for antibodies.
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Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #701 on: October 09, 2020, 12:10:43 AM »
By the way, Montreal is a good example on how it actually spreads. The first wave barely touched Montreal.
The second wave which is basically the only wave so far, started when mass testing was widely available already.
The origins of the wave are widely known, and all it took was several weeks and Rosh Hashanah for it to seemingly peak with every other person infected.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #702 on: October 09, 2020, 12:20:19 AM »
True, but in retrospect that wasn't the case. The first person I know to actually be sick with covid was on the Shabbos following Purim.
People used to think that it really took up to 14 days to get sick. In reality, it's just a few days for most.
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Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline Moshe123

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #703 on: October 09, 2020, 12:27:19 AM »
You don't live here...  :)

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #704 on: October 09, 2020, 12:34:49 AM »
You don't live here...  :)
Do you really think only someone from Cleveland caught it at a kosher food event in New York?
Feelings don't care about your facts