Is there a second wave?

[PlatinumGuy]

anyone who thinks that because there were only a "few" new known cases in recent weeks this means we are in the clear is missing the boat.

+1

There is no intellectual argument that Covid is over. Only emotional & political statements 

[Ergel]

+1

There is no intellectual argument that Covid is over. Only emotional & political statements 

It just defies logic how people are saying this. I think it's because people see the only only alternative as complete lockdown, they have to go to the other extreme and say it doesn't exist.
It's just the way the world works. Most people lack nuance

[yaakov35]

It can ONLY be this way. You will not have suddenly 10s of thousands of people with it. The average spread is to a handfull of people with some more and some less. It takes time for those 5 people who caught it to spread it to 25 then 125 etc. (the spread to 5 is arbitrary for the example).TO have reached anywhere near the numbers who caught it purim time there had to have been THOUSANDS of cases in the community before purim.

Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad

[Ergel]

Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad

So instead you need to say that covid is dead? Sad

[Kobe Bryant]

+1

There is no intellectual argument that Covid is over. Only emotional & political statements

Covid is here to stay.

[yaakov35]

So instead you need to say that covid is dead? Sad

Interesting. Never mentioned a word about it yet thats the conclusion you came to

[Ergel]

Interesting. Never mentioned a word about it yet thats the conclusion you came to

Sorry, you are correct. I did not correctly remember your opinion

[aygart]

Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad

I have been saying exactly this for quite some time.

[avromie7]

Why do we even need doctors and professionals if we have all the answers on ddf? If there's anything this pandemic should have taught us its that we are not in charge and have no idea whats going. Yet as time goes one and every curve ball that gets thrown someone here comes out with a new theory and why it really all makes sense. Sad

Unfortunately the doctors have been so far off the mark, that you can't blame people for doubting anything they say.

[S209]

Unfortunately the doctors have been so far off the mark, that you can't blame people for doubting anything they say.

Keep seeing this. Which doctors? How were they so far off the mark, and when?

[aygart]

Unfortunately the doctors have been so far off the mark, that you can't blame people for doubting anything they say.

If you are going to judge all doctors by Neil Ferguson then yeah.

[avromie7]

If you are going to judge all doctors by Neil Ferguson then yeah.

When his predictions are given the most weight by the decision makers it kinda makes people lose confidence in the entire system.

[avromie7]

Keep seeing this. Which doctors? How were they so far off the mark, and when?

Weren't you the one talking about the doctors who were too late to push shutdown?

[S209]

Weren't you the one talking about the doctors who were too late to push shutdown?

I was talking about one doctor and he’s still wrong. Politicians were late to shut down, but either way I agree that doctors didn’t know much about the virus before they saw it (obviously, and which they have pretty much all said outright from the beginning). Now, where were “the doctors” wrong? What did doctors as a group say that was proven wrong?

[good sam]

Here's what I'm grappling with. My family has been doing extreme social distancing since the week after purim. I think we should continue doing so until we have strong evidence that no second wave is coming. However, social distancing requires an aggregate effect; I alone cannot prevent the second wave.

If 85% (at least) of my community is not practicing any social distancing, and the same appears to be true in most other communities, and we ourselves are not high risk, why should we continue at all? Convince me otherwise.

[S209]

Here's what I'm grappling with. My family has been doing extreme social distancing since the week after purim. I think we should continue doing so until we have strong evidence that no second wave is coming. However, social distancing requires an aggregate effect; I alone cannot prevent the second wave.

If 85% (at least) of my community is not practicing any social distancing, and the same appears to be true in most other communities, and we ourselves are not high risk, why should we continue at all? Convince me otherwise.

I can’t speak for you without knowing your circumstances but you probably can ease up and not practice “extreme” social distancing. As long as you continue to take precautions you are probably doing the hishtadlus you’re supposed to. Just because some people aren’t practicing any (which is rare, since automatically just about everyone is currently interacting at least somewhat less than they used to at weddings, school, work, etc.) doesn’t mean you taking precautions won’t help.

[good sam]

I can’t speak for you without knowing your circumstances but you probably can ease up and not practice “extreme” social distancing. As long as you continue to take precautions you are probably doing the hishtadlus you’re supposed to. Just because some people aren’t practicing any (which is rare, since automatically just about everyone is currently interacting at least somewhat less than they used to at weddings, school, work, etc.) doesn’t mean you taking precautions won’t help.

I don't think this answers my question.

There was a shalom zachor in my neighborhood. It was outdoors but everyone was socializing and eating as normal. I went in a mask for 30 seconds, I was the only one. Shuls are operating nearly at capacity. From what I'm reading here and from what I'm hearing, many other places are the same or worse. If what they are doing will spread the virus, my staying home, or wearing a mask, or keeping a 6 foot distance will not do anything to slow it.

[S209]

I don't think this answers my question.

There was a shalom zachor in my neighborhood. It was outdoors but everyone was socializing and eating as normal. I went in a mask for 30 seconds, I was the only one. Shuls are operating nearly at capacity. From what I'm reading here and from what I'm hearing, many other places are the same or worse. If what they are doing will spread the virus, my staying home, or wearing a mask, or keeping a 6 foot distance will not do anything to slow it.

If 20% of people are careful the wave will be 20% less deadly

[good sam]

If 20% of people are careful the wave will be 20% less deadly

That math doesn't check out, unless the 20% being careful are the most vulnerable.

[cmey]

That math doesn't check out, unless the 20% being careful are the most vulnerable.

Depending on how you define most vulnerable if the 20% most vulnerable takes extreme precaution that would probably work out to 90% less deadly, since over 90% of deaths were in the most vulnerable population.