Author Topic: Is there a second wave?  (Read 100213 times)

Offline good sam

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #200 on: June 08, 2020, 08:21:35 PM »
Depending on how you define most vulnerable if the 20% most vulnerable takes extreme precaution that would probably work out to 90% less deadly, since over 90% of deaths were in the most vulnerable population.
Yes, I'll revise my statement: if the ones being careful have the same breakdown of vulnerability characteristics as those not being careful, you should have a 20% decrease. But this strengthens my point.
If you don't care why would you comment?
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Offline aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #201 on: June 08, 2020, 08:24:42 PM »
Weren't you the one talking about the doctors who were too late to push shutdown?
Yes they should have done it earlier, but again that is policy not science.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline cmey

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #202 on: June 08, 2020, 10:53:14 PM »
Heard from a reliable source that the Lakewood frum community has seen positive cases average  in the single digits per week the past few weeks despite shuls opening and hundreds of mesivta and BM bochurim testing to travel out of state with their yeshivos. I would not put any money on a massive second wave in Lakewood, at least until flu season.

Online avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #203 on: June 08, 2020, 11:08:35 PM »
Yes they should have done it earlier, but again that is policy not science.
Do you expect everyone to be scientists?
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #204 on: June 08, 2020, 11:40:50 PM »
Heard from a reliable source that the Lakewood frum community has seen positive cases average  in the single digits per week the past few weeks despite shuls opening and hundreds of mesivta and BM bochurim testing to travel out of state with their yeshivos. I would not put any money on a massive second wave in Lakewood, at least until flu season.
If it does spread how long would that take based on science?
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline S209

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #205 on: June 08, 2020, 11:41:24 PM »
Do you expect everyone to be scientists?
I expect scientists to be scientists, doctors to be doctors, politicians to be politicians, and people to understand the difference
Quote from: YitzyS
Quotes in a signature is annoying, as it comes across as an independent post.

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #206 on: June 08, 2020, 11:42:33 PM »
Do you expect everyone to be scientists?
What should happen is that politician should make policy based on the information provided by relevant experts. What became clear very quickly is how the policies put in place have very little basis in science.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Online avromie7

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #207 on: June 08, 2020, 11:52:28 PM »
What should happen is that politician should make policy based on the information provided by relevant experts. What became clear very quickly is how the policies put in place have very little basis in science.
This is exactly why people lost trust in the establishment. The only remaining option is to follow what you believe is correct, either do lots and lots of research and hopefully find the correct conclusion or do what people always do, follow their heart.
I wonder what people who type "u" instead of "you" do with all their free time.

Offline aygart

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #208 on: June 08, 2020, 11:54:20 PM »
This is exactly why people lost trust in the establishment. The only remaining option is to follow what you believe is correct, either do lots and lots of research and hopefully find the correct conclusion or do what people always do, follow their heart.
Yes,we have been agreeing about this for quite some time despite your regularly thinking that i disagree with this.
Feelings don't care about your facts

Offline AsherO

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #209 on: June 09, 2020, 12:14:08 AM »
I expect scientists to be scientists, doctors to be doctors, politicians to be politicians, and people to understand the difference

It’s reasonable to expect scientists, doctors and politicians to all do their jobs. It’s unreasonable to expect much of anything at all from the proverbial ignorant masses.
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Offline biobook

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #210 on: June 09, 2020, 12:22:08 AM »
Here's what I'm grappling with. My family has been doing extreme social distancing since the week after purim. I think we should continue doing so until we have strong evidence that no second wave is coming. However, social distancing requires an aggregate effect; I alone cannot prevent the second wave.

If 85% (at least) of my community is not practicing any social distancing, and the same appears to be true in most other communities, and we ourselves are not high risk, why should we continue at all? Convince me otherwise.

Social distancing in March was partly altruistic - to prevent spreading the infection throughout the community, and partly selfish -  to keep the individuals in your family safe. The selfish reason still applies, even if your neighbors are unconcerned.  Given the occasional severe cases in those who are low-risk, and given our complete lack of knowledge of possible long-term effects, it would be better to avoid COVID infection, if possible.

Offline yzj

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #211 on: June 10, 2020, 12:40:19 AM »
Come on guys. Lakewood shuls have been open for the better part of a month with thousands of those mispalelim practicing no social distancing whatsoever. Thousands of Lakewood kids are back in school- many of them indoors. Walk around the neighborhood and kids  are all playing with each other in and out of houses. Girls are getting together in houses- dozens at a time. Clothing and other retail stores are open (back door etc.) and many shoppers are without masks.All over town one sees people practically all over each other, and all we have to show for it are 2 positive cases in all of last week.

Where is the huge scary second wave you guys keep telling us is coming to Lakewood because there can’t possibly be herd immunity . I’d like to have bitachon that it’s still coming but I must say it sure ain’t easy.

Offline Shmobaum

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #212 on: June 10, 2020, 12:58:06 AM »
Come on guys. Lakewood shuls have been open for the better part of a month with thousands of those mispalelim practicing no social distancing whatsoever. Thousands of Lakewood kids are back in school- many of them indoors. Walk around the neighborhood and kids  are all playing with each other in and out of houses. Girls are getting together in houses- dozens at a time. Clothing and other retail stores are open (back door etc.) and many shoppers are without masks.All over town one sees people practically all over each other, and all we have to show for it are 2 positive cases in all of last week.

Where is the huge scary second wave you guys keep telling us is coming to Lakewood because there can’t possibly be herd immunity . I’d like to have bitachon that it’s still coming but I must say it sure ain’t easy.
Yup exactly right. As I wrote few weeks ago, some ppl here would love to see a second wave. I don’t know why.

Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #213 on: June 10, 2020, 01:01:11 AM »
some ppl here would love to see a second wave
Vile L"H and utter nonsense.

History has shown that pandemics come in waves, thus the 1918 flu killed many more in the fall than it did in the spring.
Not a soul would want that to happen, but there's nothing wrong with some precautions.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.

Offline Euclid

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #214 on: June 10, 2020, 01:15:46 AM »
Yup exactly right. As I wrote few weeks ago, some ppl here would love to see a second wave. I don’t know why.
Do you say the same thing to a parent who makes their child wear a bike helmet? "He just would love to see his kid get hit by a car and fall on his unhelmeted head."

Offline RebTuvia

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #215 on: June 10, 2020, 01:19:19 AM »
Vile L"H and utter nonsense.

History has shown that pandemics come in waves, thus the 1918 flu killed many more in the fall than it did in the spring.
Not a soul would want that to happen, but there's nothing wrong with some precautions.

How can we predict pandemics based on history, was anything in the recent Pandemic similar to the 1918 flu. Its all unprecedented!

Online PlatinumGuy

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #216 on: June 10, 2020, 01:21:59 AM »
was anything in the recent Pandemic similar to the 1918 flu
What was different?

Come on guys. Lakewood shuls have been open for the better part of a month with thousands of those mispalelim practicing no social distancing whatsoever. Thousands of Lakewood kids are back in school- many of them indoors. Walk around the neighborhood and kids  are all playing with each other in and out of houses. Girls are getting together in houses- dozens at a time. Clothing and other retail stores are open (back door etc.) and many shoppers are without masks.All over town one sees people practically all over each other, and all we have to show for it are 2 positive cases in all of last week.

Where is the huge scary second wave you guys keep telling us is coming to Lakewood because there can’t possibly be herd immunity . I’d like to have bitachon that it’s still coming but I must say it sure ain’t easy.
When the first wave was going on you probably said everything was fine too...
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Offline Shmobaum

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #217 on: June 10, 2020, 02:07:29 AM »
What was different?
When the first wave was going on you probably said everything was fine too...
No sir. I was calling every local doctor to shut the town down!!


Offline Dan

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Re: Is there a second wave?
« Reply #219 on: June 10, 2020, 11:33:34 AM »
How can we predict pandemics based on history, was anything in the recent Pandemic similar to the 1918 flu. Its all unprecedented!
How is it unprecedented? Throughout history pandemics have come in waves.
The onus to prove this will be an exception and isn't worth a concern falls on you.
Save your time, I don't answer PM. Post it in the forum and a dedicated DDF'er will get back to you as soon as possible.